The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3 points in December to register 54.6. The Barometer has averaged 54.3 during fourth quarter, the highest in two years, and suggests that economic conditions have improved somewhat, said MNI Indicators. The index for New Orders lost 6.7 points giving up the gains it made in November that pushed the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the seventh consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated December 16th, Figure 1. The dollar as of that date was stronger than at any time since April […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. The official news release from the Conference Board is included beneath our analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The December report was very encouraging and came on the heels of an excellent […]
For the first time this month we will summarize six data sources that describe the state of manufacturing in the US. We have reported on most of these six sources separately in our Steel Market Update publications therefore will be brief in this summary. We don’t expect these data sources to all point in the […]
Based on the results of the Steel Market Update flat rolled steel market trends analysis performed prior to the Holiday weekend steel mill lead times continue to be extended. The respondents to our survey reported on the amount of time it takes to get hot rolled, cold rolled, galvanized and Galvalume produced from the time […]
There was little movement in the positions of the domestic steel makers when it came to their willingness to negotiate spot flat rolled steel prices this past week. Respondents to our final flat rolled steel market trends survey reported the steel mills as taking strong stances when it came to negotiating spot pricing on hot […]
Manufacturing surveys by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Richmond indicated that manufacturers are expecting positive business conditions in the first half of 2017. Activity is expected to be stronger in the Fifth District area than Texas but both regions see improvement conditions in the New Year. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Manufacturing activity […]
China GDP is expected to slow to 6.5 percent next year and decline to 6.4 percent by third and fourth quarters. A report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said economic expansion is likely to dip next year due to declines in export demand, investment growth and domestic demand. The Dec. 19 […]
This article should go into one of our Steel Buyers Basics series of articles under the heading “Buyer Beware” or, “If it is too Good to be True….” The following article is from one of our trading contacts with whom our SMU Publisher had done business during his trading career. The trader is located in […]
This is our first ever write up of global scrap trade. We believe that to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should study where the US stands as a global player. This data is not very current because some nations are slow to report but we still believe it gives a valuable […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has reversed trend and is rising (getting more optimistic) as we prepare to move into the New Year. On Monday of this week Steel Market Update (SMU) began conducting our mid-December flat rolled steel market trends analysis. We completed our inquiries earlier today (Thursday, December 22, 2016) and we are […]
Durable goods orders decreased 4.6 percent in November to $228.2 billion, according to the latest report from the Department of Commerce. The drop follows four months of consecutive increases. Durable goods are products designed to have a lifespan of longer than three years, such as machinery and computers. The decline in November was driven by […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the sixth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
Late last week the Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) released service center shipment and inventories data for the United States and Canada. We published both a general recap and a more complex analysis of the data in Thursday and Sunday issues of SMU. Steel Market Update has a proprietary model that we apply against the […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make pipe and tube as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. On December 12th Gaurav […]
Steel buyers and executives associated with the service center industry are reporting to Steel Market Update that end users are accepting that we are in a higher priced flat rolled steel environment and most have placed their first quarter 2017 tons. The expectation is for the market to “pause” here due to the holidays which […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for December indicated modest business growth for December and strong optimism for next year. The headline general business index rose 8 points while new orders picked up 11.4 points. The shipments index was unchanged for the month. Manufacturers in New York State reported declines in employment and hours worked. Inventories […]
Manufacturers in the Philadelphia area were optimistic in December about general business activity, shipments, and employment. The index reading for current manufacturing activity increased from an index reading of 7.6 in November to 21.5 this month, according to the latest Manufacturing Business Outlook survey by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The reading for December was the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive for the fifth consecutive week, following a 17 week long negative streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average price as […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) introduced a new data set for GDP by state and region in 2014 and back dated it to Q1 2005. Last week the data was updated through Q2 2016. Even though we might consider this to be historically “old,” we think it’s worth reporting because it is a foundation […]
The Association of Women in the Metal Industries has elected a new President and Vice-President for 2017-2018. The election was held during the Association’s 2016 Annual Conference held in Florida in November. The positions are for a term of two years. The following roles were announced in a press release from AWMI. Carol Chizmar has […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through October 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
According to Baker Hughes data from December 9, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 624 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 27 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 21 to 498 rigs, gas rigs up 6 to 125 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Our publication of the steel version of Twas the Night Before Christmas has created a competitive stir. We received a second submission of a Christmas tune with the words adjusted to represent a more steel flavor. Here is Santa Claus is Coming to Town: To the tune of Santa Claus is coming to town: You […]
SMU Sentiment Index Sees Renewed Optimism The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen a renewed spurt of optimism based on our latest data. Sentiment, which had been trending lower since the beginning of July based on our three month moving average (3MMA) reversed course and moved higher this week. Our 3MMA for Current Sentiment […]
Over the past four days Steel Market Update has been conducting one of our market trends surveys. The respondents to our queries have provided data indicating slightly longer lead times on hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume while galvanized lead times remained steady at mid-November levels. The lead times reported in this article are the […]
According to those participating in this week’s flat rolled steel market trends survey the domestic steel mills are taking a firm stance to price negotiations. Since the first price increase announcements were made in late October the percentage of steel buyers reporting the mills as willing to negotiate prices has dropped from a high of […]
Every year Keith Gunter of McElroy Metal produces a Christmas poem dedicated to recent steel events and wishes for the New Year. Take a moment to enjoy this year’s spin on the old classic, Twas the Night Before Christmas: T’was almost Christmas,So time to reflect on the year,Cost has had its ups and downs,But has […]
House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republicans removed the Buy America provision from the Drinking Water State Revolving fund sparking controversy among legislators in the House and Senate. The Buy America legislation in the Water Resources Development Act, introduced by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), passed the Senate in September with broad bipartisan support. Said Baldwin, […]