Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of February 2017, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in February were 83,490,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.1 percent from the previous month but an increase of 13.4 percent from […]
The Association of American Railroads finds in a new report that freight railroads are at risk from trade policies that curtail international trade. In an assessment released Tuesday, the AAR said that at least 42 percent of all rail carloads and intermodal units and 35 percent of annual rail revenue are directly associated with international […]
The Precision Metalforming Association released its March Business Conditions Report and found that members continue to be optimistic about future business conditions. A survey of 119 metalforming companies in the U.S. and Canada revealed that members expect steady orders and strong economic activity in the next three months. Current average daily shipping levels jumped in […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory for a single week. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the […]
We are getting mixed messages regarding “real” lead times coming out of the domestic steel mills. The information we are sharing below comes from actual mill lead times coming directly from the producing mills to their customers. This is different than the lead time averages collected by Steel Market Update and shared with our readers […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated March 17th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
This is only our second ever write up of global scrap trade. In future we will report quarterly because we believe that to understand the gyrations of the domestic scrap market we should be aware of where the US stands as a global player. This data is not very current because some nations are slow […]
Manufacturers are optimistic in the Texas and Richmond area, according to Federal Reserve surveys. Factory activity is expanding so far in 2017 and manufacturers continue to expect improvement during the next six months. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Manufacturing in Texas experienced a ninth month of expansion in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of […]
The source of this data is the Conference Board with analysis by Steel Market Update. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. The March report was excellent and handily beat expectations by rising to 125.6 from an upwardly revised 116.1 in February. The three month moving average (3MMA) has […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel having been bouncing like the proverbial rubber ball over the past six weeks as they try to make sense of where steel prices are heading over the near term. Steel Market Update (SMU) asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends survey last week where they […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 24, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 809 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 20 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 21 to 652 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 155 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
Durable goods orders rose in February by 1.7 percent after gaining 2.3 percent the prior month. The increase beat the Bloomberg estimate of a 1.4 percent gain. Excluding the volatile transportation category, orders gained 0.4 percent. Aircraft led the increase with a jump of 47.6 percent for civilian aircraft. Core capital goods orders (excludes aircraft […]
Steel Market Update concluded our analysis of the flat rolled steel markets earlier today. One of the proprietary products produced out of our twice monthly analysis is the SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index which consists of Current and Future Sentiment Indices. Our Current Sentiment Index as a single data point came in at +73. This […]
Flat rolled lead times, which had been stuck in a rut over the past couple of months, have started to move out according to those responding to our flat rolled market trends survey. We are now seeing average lead times on hot rolled close to five weeks (4.81 weeks). We also saw movement in cold […]
The aggressiveness of the flat rolled steel mills was minimal on Galvalume steels this week but other products appear to be open for discussion, according to those taking the SMU flat rolled market trends analysis survey just completed earlier today (Thursday, March 23, 2017). We found 47 percent of our respondents reporting the domestic mills […]
The Architecture Billings Index increased modestly to 50.7 in February pulling out of its dip into negative territory in January. The new projects Inquiry index was 61.5, up from 60.0 the previous month, and the design contract index climbed to 54.7 from 52.1. “The sluggish start to the year in architecture firm billings should give […]
Based on the most recent MSCI data, carbon flat rolled service centers in the United States shipped 2,103,000 tons of sheet products. Our SMU Service Center Apparent Excess/Deficit forecast had called for shipments to be 2,191,000 tons. So, we missed our forecast by 88,000 tons. Our original forecast called for 4,551,000 tons of flat rolled […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the fourth consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory last month. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week […]
Steel mill lead times are one of the key indicators of future direction of steel prices. Steel buyers must be aware of the amount of time it takes a supplier to produce and ship a new order. Lead times and balancing inventories go hand in hand. When lead times shrink, buyers can pull back on […]
Over the course of a few weeks, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steels changed their view of the direction of flat rolled steel price direction. In the middle of February only 14 percent of those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey reported prices would move higher with the majority (52 […]
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about […]
Last Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its series of producer price indexes (PPI), for more than 10,000 goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release reported results through February. We run this analysis every three or four months to provide information for […]
According to Baker Hughes data from March 17, 2017, the U.S rig count for the week was 789 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 21 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 14 to 631 rigs, gas rigs up 6 to 157 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
The prices of oil and natural gas drive the consumption of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and related steel products. The energy markets represent a large portion of the hot rolled coil used to make welded tubular goods as well as equipment used to drill and pump oil and natural gas. Figure 1 shows historical […]
The March Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed business continuing to expand at a sound pace in New York State. The general business index registered 16.4, a decline of two points from its two year high last month. The new orders index gained 7.8 points, climbing to 21.3 for its highest reading since 2009. Shipments continued […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained in positive territory for the third consecutive week after briefly dipping into negative territory three weeks ago. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Robert Lighthizer faces the Senate confirmation hearings today without the congressional waiver needed to take the post of U.S. Trade Representative. A waiver is required because of a provision prohibiting individuals who worked on behalf of foreign governments in trade negotiations with the United States from becoming the U.S. trade representative. Lighthizer’s work on behalf […]
The election of President Donald Trump uncovered a wound that has been festering for many years with both Democrats and Republicans in the White House. At the recent Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International (FMA) annual meeting, Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence had this to say about the Obama Administration, “The frustration was we […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through January 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February employment data on Friday which was a week later than normal. This was the best result for goods producing industries (mainly construction and manufacturing) since August 1998. The preliminary result for net job creation in February was 235,000. December was revised down by 2,000 and January […]