SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey Results: Concerns Growing About Supply - Especially Coated Steels
Written by John Packard
March 19, 2017
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about supply (62 percent) but the percentage of those having concerns has grown to 30 percent of our respondents. We will need to watch and see if there is cause for this concern either by extending lead times, shrinking imports or rapidly improving demand.
This question prompted many of the respondents to comment:
“With Big River coming on-line and other hot mills I have no concerns on supply. However, Big River is willing to pay a premium currently for prime scrap and that is going to drive tightness in the scrap market for a while.” Manufacturing company
“Supply is there as long as you pay the price.” Trading company
“None at this time [concerns about supply] – this could change quickly.” Wholesaler
“[Yes, we have concerns about supply] especially in coated products.” Service center
“Always have concerns about the availability of secondary steel sources.” Service center
“Coated shortage possibly coming.” Manufacturing company
“Our contracts cover 2017 needs, but I have more of a concern about CR & Coated capacity for 2018 and am actively reviewing new low cost countries for steel supply with low AD/CV duty risk.” Manufacturing company
Our next SMU Flat Rolled Market Trends Analysis begins on Monday, March 20th and will conclude later in the week. Premium level members of SMU can see past results of our surveys on our website. We will publish a new Power Point presentation with this week’s results on Friday of this week.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Sentiment Indices rise
Both current and future scrap sentiment jumped this month, though survey participants reported responses before key trade news was announced.

SMU Survey: Sentiment splits, buyers have better view of future than the present
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “ferrous scrap survey” results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results […]

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times stabilize, plate contracts
Mill lead times for sheet products were steady to slightly longer this week compared to our late June market check, while plate lead times contracted, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.