Business activity declined in the New York State area as reported by firms in the August 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline PMI for general business conditions fell for a second month, losing five points to register -4.21. New orders were essentially unchanged at a reading near zero of 1.04. Shipments rose eight points […]
According to Baker Hughes data from August 12, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 481 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 17 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 15 to 396 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 83 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through June 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
At SMU we almost always use three month moving averages to mitigate situations like the dismal and not credible May job creation statistics. In the July report May was revised up slightly from 11,000 to 24,000 and June was revised up from 287,000 to 292,000. This week’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported […]
Steel Market Update speaks with dozens of companies on a daily basis and hundreds over the course of a week. We also receive a large number of emails, facebook and LinkedIn posts. Every so often we like to share some of the comments being made in an article we call “Bits ‘N Pieces.” We learned […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the fourth consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
The Department of Commerce is initiating a new series of reports that detail steel trade flows around the world. The reports will provide a summary of steel activity in 20 countries that will enhance market intelligence for U.S. businesses. The reports will serve as the basis for a new Global Steel Trade Monitor to be fully implemented […]
According to Baker Hughes data from August 5, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 464 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 1 rig compared to last week, with oil rigs up 7 to 381 rigs, gas rigs down 5 to 81 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs down […]
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market trends analysis survey, as steel prices flatten out and lead times begin to come back in, flat rolled steel buyers and sellers are slightly less enthusiastic about their company’s ability to be successful in both the existing market environment as well as 3 to […]
Earlier this week we began our early August flat rolled steel market trends analysis. The process began with invitations going out to approximately 570 steel executives in the manufacturing, service center/wholesaler, trading company, steel mill and toll processing communities. The invitations are purposely heavily weighted toward manufacturing and service center/wholesalers as those two segments purchase […]
The following information was collected from our flat rolled steel market trends survey which we have been conducting since Monday of this week. Much of the collection information is similar to the Lead Times article above as this question is posed to manufacturing companies and distributors. What we are trying to discover is if there […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the third consecutive week, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous 12-week average […]
Vallourec, French-based global pipe manufacturer, is expecting challenging market conditions for the oil and gas industry for the remainder of 2016. CEO Phillipe Crouzet said in the company’s second quarter earnings report that the oil and gas market will continue to be “significantly impacted by low demand and intense pricing.” He offered some optimism for […]
Manufacturing activity expanded in July for the fifth consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 85th consecutive month, according to supply executives surveyed in the July ISM Report on Business. The PMI registered 52.6 in July, down 0.6 percentage points from June and 2.2 percent above the 12 month average of 50.4. New […]
Global manufacturing began the second half of 2016 on a positive note, according to the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI, compiled by Markit. The rate of growth for manufacturing rose at a faster rate between June and July on all of the indices that make up the composite PMI. At 51.0 in July, the PMI was […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. It is important to understand the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. The total […]
The states compile their employment numbers independently of the Feds, then both are reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The results are close. In the last fourteen quarters since Q1 2013, the Feds reported total job creation of 9,111,000 and the states reported 9,105,400 a difference of only 0.06 percent. Part of this small […]
In the Bureau of Economic Analysis report of GDP released on Friday, economic statistics were revised back to Q1 2013. In these revisions, Q2 and Q4 of 2015 were revised down as was Q1 of 2016. Q1 of 2015 was revised up substantially and Q3 of 2015 was unchanged. The annualized GDP growth rate in […]
For the second month, SMU Price Momentum is at Neutral suggesting flat rolled steel prices will remain within a relatively tight trading range of plus or minus twenty dollars per ton over the next 30 days. We saw hot rolled prices only move $5 per ton during the month of July. Our average for the […]
The Chicago Business Barometer lost one point in July to register 55.8 after a year and a half high of 56.8 in June, according to MNI Indicators. New orders fell 3.9 points to 59.3 but kept most of June’s gains. Order backlogs, at a high last month, remained above the 50 neutral mark. Inventories grew […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 29, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 463 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 1 rig compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 374 rigs, gas rigs down 2 to 86 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Sources for the following article are the Conference Board and SMU analysis. Please see the end of this piece for an explanation of the indicator. Consumer Confidence jumped from 92.4 in May to 97.3 in June then eked out a small gain to 97.4 in July. Included below is the official news release from the […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained negative this week for the second week in a row, following a 28 week long positive streak. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
Durable goods orders fell sharply in June to $9.3 billion or a seasonally adjusted 4.0 percent. Orders were down for the second month with transportation equipment leading the decrease. May’s estimate was revised downward to 2.8 percent. Demand was weaker in June for civilian aircraft and defense, which fell 58.8 percent, and 20.7 percent, respectively. […]
Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through the second quarter of 2016. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. The growth of GDP was 6.7 percent in the second quarter, which was unchanged from the first quarter, down from […]
We pointed out a couple of weeks back that lead times have been slowly shrinking but are still longer than year ago levels. Lead times refer to the amount of time it takes to get an order placed today produced at one of the domestic steel mills. The steel mill lead times we are discussing […]
As lead times begin to come back in (shorten), we are seeing an increase in the percentage of our flat rolled steel survey respondents who are reporting the steel mills as willing to negotiate steel prices. Hot rolled continues to be the weakest product. It has the shortest lead time and we have heard from […]
According to Baker Hughes data from July 22, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 462 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 15 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 14 to 371 rigs, gas rigs down 1 to 88 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs up […]
Since 2008, Steel Market Update has been measuring how steel buyers and sellers feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the existing market environment (which we call “Current Sentiment”). We also probe the same group of manufacturers, steel service centers, steel mills, trading companies and toll processors on how they feel about their […]
Metalforming companies are expecting somewhat weaker business conditions during the next three months. The July survey by the Precision Metalforming Association showed only 22 percent of participants are expecting an improvement in conditions (down from 27 percent in June); those expecting no change remained relatively steady in July at 56 percent compared to 55 percent […]