The July 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed slightly improved conditions for New York state manufacturers. The index rose six points to 3.9 following a negative reading in June. The index has been hovering around the zero point for the last four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Graphic representation of the period […]
The Philadelphia Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed slower growth in business activity in July. The headline index dropped to 5.7 from 15.2 in June but remained positive for the month. The index has been in single digits so far this year with the exception of June. New orders slipped eight points in July while the […]
A quick note that we will be updating the imports by port and country data for May later this afternoon. You can view the data sheets on our website here. Feel free to contact our office if you need any assistance at (800) 432 3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
Steel Market Update queried U.S. domestic steel mills to hear what they have to say on the recently passed trade legislation. One of the executives who responded was Jim Baske, chief executive officer, ArcelorMittal North American Flat Rolled who said, “The steel industry in the United States faces significant competitive challenges from dumped and subsidized […]
Building planning declined in June according to the Dodge Momentum Index published by Dodge Data & Analytics. The Index, which is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, dropped 1.3 percent to 118.3 from 119.9 in May. Overall, the Index is just 2.2 percent higher than June 2014 and […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
Steel buyers in the ISM Steel Buyers Survey continue to be cautiously optimistic that general economic activity will improve over the next six months. In the June survey, 38.5 percent of buyers expect economic conditions to improve, up from 30.8 percent in the May survey. However, 61.5 percent expect unchanged conditions during the period, up […]
Mexican steelmakers are feeling the pressure from unfairly traded steel. In a joint statement on last week, Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA), De Acero, Tubacero and ArcelorMittal accused Russia, China and Turkey of dumping steel at prices below production costs. In a full page newspaper ad, the steel companies urged President Enrique Pena Nieto to […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their June report on July 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the index gained 1.3 points in May and a further 0.7 points in June to end at 53.5 with a three month moving […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported that 223,000 jobs were added in June which was in line with expectations. April and May were revised down by a total of 60,000. Monthly job gains have averaged 221,000 over the past three months. In the 12 months prior to June, employment growth […]
Global manufacturing in June slowed close to a two-year low according to the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI. The Index posted at 51.0 from 51.3 in May, but manufacturing output remained in expansion (above the neutral 50 point) for the 31st consecutive month. Manufacturing growth, on average, continued to grow in North America and Europe […]
June ended the same way it started with our SMU Price Momentum Indicator pointing toward higher flat rolled steel prices. This is now the second month in a row where our Momentum Indicator has been pointing up. Our Future Steel Buyers Sentiment Index averaged +61.5 for the month of June. However, the last report we […]
We have seen many of the indices either produced by or followed by Steel Market Update (SMU) were falling during the first few months of 2015 before stabilizing and beginning to rebound by the end of the first six months 2015. Not everything is reacting in unison so we thought we would point out a […]
The June Chicago Business Barometer gained back half of May’s losses but remained in contraction for the second consecutive month and the fourth so far this year. The Barometer rose 3.2 points to 49.4 from 46.2 in May. Overall, the barometer declined 1.2 points in second quarter, registering 49.3 from 50.5 in Q1, its lowest […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board jumped by 6.8 points in June, as May was revised down slightly. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations and this month’s result is a perfect example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in […]
The Supreme Court blocked new EPA regulation on pollutants from coal-fired power plants in a 5-4 vote on Monday. The ruling will prevent the EPA from imposing new rules designed to reduce mercury and other toxic pollutants from power plants without first undertaking a cost-benefit analysis. Industries and 20 states complained that the EPA disregarded […]
The TAA legislation passed by the Senate and House last week contained a measure short-titled “American Trade Enforcement Effectiveness Act.” The act provides for improvements to antidumping and countervailing duty laws, including how material injury is defined. The Act is comprised of amendments are made to the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 USC 1677). SMU […]
Today (June 25, 2015), the House passed HR 1295 which includes extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and other trade preference programs, as well as the renewal of Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and improved AD/CVD laws that will benefit the steel industry. The measure passed by a vote of 286-138. Today’s vote follows […]
The Department of Commerce said Wednesday that it will proceed on AD/CVD investigations of imports of corrosion-resistant steel products from China, India, Italy, Korea, and Taiwan. A petition to investigate the products was filed on June 3, 2015 by US Steel, Nucor, ArcelorMittal USA, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics, and California Steel Industries. The products covered […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: On the S&P 500 we are […]
One of the key items Steel Market Update watches is the spread between world hot rolled export pricing and the HRC spot price average here in the United States. This spread is important to the domestic steel mills and their customers because as the spread narrows domestic steel becomes more competitive and their order books […]
The Architecture Billings Index rose to 51.9 in May from 47.8 in April. The Index, which reflects the approximate nine to 12 month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending, showed an increase in demand for new schools, hospitals, cultural facilities and municipal buildings last month. The ABI, published monthly by the American Institute […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q1 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Wednesday. The annualized growth rate in the third estimate was -0.17 percent down from Q4 2014 which came in at 2.2 percent. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The Mexican government said it will impose import duties on cold-rolled steel from China following an antidumping investigation initiated by Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA), Ternium and other Mexican steel companies. The Friday, June 19 decision will put tariffs of 65.99 percent imports on imports from Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd and 82.08 percent […]
New orders for manufactured durable goods orders fell 1.8 percent or $4.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $228.9 billion in May, according the U.S. Census Bureau. Orders have decreased in three of the last four months, including a 1.5 percent decrease in April, and continue to be below the 2010-to-date trendline since late in 2014. […]
The big picture is as follows: from the 2015 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission May 28, 2015 (heavily abridged by SMU). “At current levels of the real exchange rate, the U.S. dollar is assessed to be moderately overvalued. As a result, the current account deficit […]
Steel Market Update has been asked a number of times to define, or help our readers to understand, what is “injury” when it comes to the domestic steel industry. Last week we heard from trade attorney Larry Friedman at the Association of Steel Distributors Meeting in Chicago that injury was losing sales, the lowering of […]