Today is Monday, please allow us to update you on the China steel market (Nov 21 – Nov 27, 2016) as usual as follows: In the past week, the market still kept rising heavily. It is out of our expectations as many non-market factors pushed spot prices to stand at very high levels. 1. China […]
There has been a great deal of discussion on how the Trump administration will affect manufacturing and the steel industry in the coming months. Steel Market Update asked AISI and domestic steel mills what regulations they would like to see repealed under the new administration and what kind of environment for steel and manufacturing they […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a minor decline in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA). The majority of the November survey respondents (79 percent) expect economic activity to remain the same or decline. Shipping levels were reported to be overall steady, with the average […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the index had an all-time high of 106.28 in December 2014 and trended down through June this year when it experienced a three month turnaround followed by a slight decline in October to 104.32. Figure […]
Once each quarter we publish the official statistics for Chinese GDP, industrial production, consumer price inflation and fixed asset investment. Currently available GDP data is through the third quarter, other data included here is through October. Many analysts don’t believe these Party self-serving figures but we include them in our reports because of the importance […]
Orders for durable goods in October rose faster than expected by economists. The Commerce Department reported orders were up 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of $239.4 billion. Civilian aircraft orders led the increase, jumping 1.4 percent from September to October. Core capital goods, which are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft considered to be […]
According to Baker Hughes data from November 23, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 593 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 5 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs up 3 to 474 rigs, gas rigs up 2 to 118 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
This article was written by Paul Lowrey, President of Steel Research Associates, LLC. Over the last couple of years, a lot of attention has been paid to the high level of imports of steel mill products into the USA. Surprisingly, however, indirect steel imports have not received a lot of attention. Both the American Iron […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA) hot rolled prices. We want our readers to note that we have made a decision to replace SteelBenchmarker as the primary data provider of foreign hot rolled coil prices. We were finding […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value we have was dated November 10th, Figure 1. The dollar has appreciated strongly since the election in anticipation of higher interest […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Andre and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: The bearishness was so thick 1-2 months ago you could cut it with a knife! The steel futures were getting crushed, […]
Canadian shipments for all steel products in the month of October were 356,600 net tons, a decrease of 3.8 percent from the month before and a decrease of 6.1 percent from October 2015. Inventories at the end of the month stood at 1,080,600 tons, down 3.2 percent from last month and down 11.2 percent from […]
The Architecture Billings Index rebounded modestly in October, registering 50.8 after dipping below the neutral point in September and August. Fewer firms, however, reported an increase in new inquiries or in value of design contracts signed during the month. Both inquiries and design contract indexes fell for the second month in a row with the […]
Business activity stabilized in New York State according to the November 2016 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The index rose eight points to a reading of 1.5, bringing the index out of contraction for the first time in four months but leaving manufacturing relatively flat for the month. New orders and shipments picked up and indices […]
Brazil has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the United States over countervailing measures on imports of Brazilian cold- and hot-rolled steel flat products and requests dispute consultations with the U.S. In the November 11 filing, Brazil alleges the U.S. has been inconsistent with a number of procedural and substantive provisions […]
The annualized GDP growth rate in the first estimate of the third quarter of 2016 was 2.91 percent which was the best result since the Q3 of 2014. Economy.com had this to say: “Prospects remain bright. Consumers are doing their part and spending growth will remain strong as labor markets tighten and wage increases accelerate. […]
In October net job creation was 161,000. August was revised up by 9,000 and September revised up by 35,000. Using a three month moving average (3MMA), the result for October was 176,000 down from 233,000 in August and from 206,000 in September. Figure 1 shows the 3MMA of the number of jobs created as the […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. […]
At the end of August Cliffs Natural Resources Chairman, President and CEO, Lourenco Goncalves spoke at the SMU Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta. During his “fireside chat” with SMU founder and publisher, John Packard, Goncalves was upbeat about the future of the steel industry and of the United States. Later, in comments made before SMU […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel – HR futures The Hot Rolled futures market this past week has been characterized by limited trading activity. There have been numerous […]
Accelerating production and new orders raised the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI to 52.0 in October, its highest level in two years. Manufacturing conditions improved in 22 of the 31 nations surveyed. Those nations that contracted were primarily in Asia (South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore and Myanmar), said JP Morgan and IHS Markit, along […]
US Steel Corp announced today that it has agreed to terms proposed with Bedrock Industries Group for the sale and transition of ownership of US Steel Canada. The transaction is subject to customary court approvals. US Steel Canada has been in Companies Creditor Arrangement Act (CCAA) proceedings since Sept. 16, 2014. Under terms of the […]
On Thursday (October 27, 2016) Cliffs Natural Resources conducted their 3rd Quarter 2016 earnings conference call with analysts. During the call Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves made statements regarding steel service centers which he reported as importing “illegal steel,” thus hurting the domestic steel industry. He also pointed out that service center inventories were “dangerously low” […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) reported a shift in steel pricing “Momentum” at the end of October as our Steel Price Momentum Indicator was adjusted first to Neutral and then to Higher. Our expectation is for domestic flat rolled steel prices to increase over the next 30-60 days. Sentiment, however, has been trending lower with our […]
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded at a faster rate in October, according to the latest Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. The PMI index, which covers manufacturing activity for the entire United States, registered 51.9, a 0.4 increase from September. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the manufacturing economy and below 50 indicates […]
Economic activity in October lost some of the momentum gained in third quarter, according to the latest survey by MNI Indicators. The Chicago Business Barometer fell 3.6 points to a five month low of 50.6 in October. The three month moving average was at 52.1, down from 53.8 in September. Production dropped 5.4 points from […]
The Brazilian Steel Association has requested that the World Trade Organization initiate a “bilateral consultation” with the United States regarding the countervailing duties applied against imports of Brazilian hot and cold-rolled steel. The Association claims that the U.S. Department of Commerce did not take into consideration in their determination of “actionable subsidies” the explanations by […]
According to Baker Hughes data from October 28, 2016, the U.S rig count for the week was 557 rigs exploring for or developing oil or natural gas. This is up 4 rigs compared to last week, with oil rigs down 2 to 441 rigs, gas rigs up 6 to 114 rigs, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged […]
Metalforming companies are expecting a minor decline in business conditions during the next three months, according to the latest survey by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA). Respondents in the October survey are expecting a drop in incoming orders and noted that shipping levels declined in in October. Lead times, compared with three months ago shortened […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA) hot rolled prices. We want our readers to note that we have made a decision to replace SteelBenchmarker as the primary data provider of foreign hot rolled coil prices. We were finding […]