Metalforming companies surveyed in the August Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report are expecting growth in business activity and new orders for the next three months. The August 13 press release is as follows: CLEVELAND, OH—August 13, 2014—According to the August 2014 Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) Business Conditions Report, metalforming companies expect a spike […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of initial reports for nonresidential building projects in planning, fell 4.4 percent in July after making gains the last three months. On a year-over-year basis the index is still 16.5 percent higher than the same month last year. “The July decline, therefore, may simply be a return to […]
Today’s hot rolled coil futures (HRC) article comes to us from Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. In his article he will review the S&P 500, copper pricing, crude oil pricing, steel, iron ore and ferrous scrap futures trading: Well the S&P 500 reached its high […]
Below is a press release from The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) regarding their response To Russia’s agricultural import restrictions: Falls Church, VA. August 7, 2014. Russia’s retaliatory ban on U.S. and EU food imports announced yesterday signals a significant worsening in diplomatic and economic relations between the countries involved, and could presage further […]
SMU’s latest ferrous scrap report from Damon Sun of Daido International shows heavy melt scrap holding firm at $350/mt. Scrap imports from the US to Taiwan appear to be on hold. He reports recently selling 5000mt at $343/mt CFR Taichung. Kaoshiung was buying late last week at $348/mt but then stopped buying. Scrap from Thailand […]
A recent report from the World Steel Association named the top 50 steel producing companies for 2013. ArcelorMittal was the worlds largest producer with 96.1 million metric tons of steel produced, followed by Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation producing 50.1 million tons. Third place, with 45.8 million tons, went to Hebei Steel Group, followed […]
Steel buyers in the July ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting increased orders for the next three months. The percentage of buyers who expect an improvement in orders increased from 33.3 percent to 50 percent in July with the remaining 50 percent expecting order levels to remain the same. Forty percent of buyers still say […]
The Steel Market Development Institute (SMDI), a business unit of the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) announced that Dr. Jody N. Hall will succeed Ronald P. Krupitzer as Vice President Automotive Market following Mr. Krupitzer’s retirement at the end of the year. Dr. Hall is a former Technical Integration Engineer at General Motors Company […]
The July 2014 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months. This summary is based on the responses from 75 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. Below […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 209,000 jobs were added in July, June was revised up by 10,000 to 298,000 and May up by 5,000 to 229,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined to 245,000 in July after four consecutive months of growth beginning in February at 150,000, […]
The July ISM Report on Business indicates that activity in the manufacturing sector increased last month. The July PMI rose 1.8 percent to 57.1 for the highest reading since April 2011 and the 14th consecutive monthly increase. A PMI reading in excess of 43.2 percent, over a period of time, also indicates an expansion of […]
The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI registered 52.5 in July, down just 0.1 point from June and indicating moderating growth. Indices for new orders and output were nearly unchanged from the prior month. The exports index increased at a faster rate, up 0.4 points to 51.5 in July. The employment index decreased by 0.4 points […]
At the end of each month Steel Market Update takes a look back at the data we have compiled and does a quick analysis for our readers. This is different than our SMU Key Market Indicators which is also included in this newsletter. Benchmark hot rolled coil prices averaged $667 per ton (SMU) for the […]
The HRC futures market has continued its upward trend in the past few weeks with recent bullish events in the physical market supporting prices. While nearby periods remain firm with August and September trading around $650-660, further down the curve cal 15 prices have trended upwards trading up to $643. Similarly, Q1 and cal 15 […]
The Chicago Business Barometer plunged 10 points to 52.6 in July, falling at the quickest rate since October 2008 and to the lowest level since June 2013. The fall surprised Bloomberg economists who were expecting the Index to rise slightly to 63 from a reading of 62.6 in June. The decline was attributed to a […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA & Canada) hot rolled pricing. Actual HRC price spreads can vary based on freight costs, trader margins and other factors. SMU compares the world export price with an adder for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. against the […]
On Wednesday this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and for the first quarter of 2014, GDP and select components were revised back to […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.5 in June to 90.9. The view of the present situation rose by 2.0 to 88.3 as expectations rose by 6.3 to 92.7, these two components have now converged as they always do at this stage of a recovery after which the view of the present situation will take […]
Home prices grew moderately in May according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. On a year-over-year basis the 10-City Composite gained 9.4 percent and the 20-City gained 9.3 percent, down from the previous y/y gains reported last month of 10.9 percent and 10.8 percent, respectively. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted gains of 1.1 […]
Durable goods orders increased 0.7 percent after dropping 1.0 percent in May, according to data released by the US. Census Bureau. New orders, excluding transportation, increased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent. Machinery led the advance in June with a 2.4 percent increase in new orders. “Durable goods orders climbed 0.7% in […]
Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC has the honors this week to discuss the financial and HRC, iron ore and scrap futures markets in an attempt to make sense out of what can sometimes feel like total chaos. Financial Markets: Well we’re at all time highs again, having hit an intraday on the September S&P […]
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was released on Wednesday morning showing an overall improvement in construction industry. The ABI score for June was 53.5, up from 52.6 in May. Note that the index is centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. “The […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Metalforming companies are showing some uncertainty about the general economic outlook but more than half reported shipping levels were higher in July 2014 than in July 2013. The forecast for incoming orders in the next three months compared to the previous three is somewhat better–40 percent expecting orders to increase (up from 37 percent) and […]
Chinese steel trade data for June 2014 was released earlier this week, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in June were 74,570,000 metric tons, a decrease of 3.6 percent from the previous month but an increase of 19.7 percent from […]
A first glance suggests that the June housing starts report was depressing, total starts at 893,000 were down from 985,000 in May and 1,063,000 in April. However the three month moving average (3MMA) in June was 980,000 which was exactly the same as April. Not progress but not a calamity either. Even on a 3MMA […]
Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 103.92 for June, with a three month moving average (3MMA) of 103.6. This was the ninth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The 3MMA has expanded for 20 straight […]
The world export price for hot rolled bands was at $506 per net ton ($558 per metric ton) according to data released by SteelBenchmarker this past week. The world hot rolled export price is up $2 per ton compared to the report produced in late-June.With an estimated $70 per ton added in order to get […]
The hot rolled steel futures market has perked up in the past few weeks with recent bullish events in the physical market supporting prices. After months of trading in a strong backwardation, prices on the nearby months July, August and September have pushed higher trading near parity with spot prices, between $650-665 per ton. Further […]