The Consumer Confidence Index improved for the second month in September, up from 101.3 in August to 103.0. The reading was the highest since January and exceeded Bloomberg’s median forecast of 96.8 and Reuter’s forecast of 96.1. Consumers in the September survey were more positive about current condition with 28 percent calling the present situation […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2015 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. In the big picture, the change (delta, Δ) in GDP is equal to the change in population plus the change in productivity, that is Δ GDP = Δ Population + Δ […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
New orders for durable goods in August declined by 2.0 percent month on month to $236.322 billion. This result was in line with analyst’s expectations and was a result of a decline in transportation orders, mainly civil aircraft. Orders excluding transportation were unchanged. The three month moving average (3MMA) rose by 1.3 percent. The 3MMA […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update and is also a reasonably good predictor of steel demand with a six to nine month lead. For example […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: Basis last reporting of improving markets […]
The Architecture Billings Index slipped below the neutral point in August indicating a decrease in construction design planning. The August ABI score registered 49.1, down from 54.7 in July. The new projects inquiry index dropped to 61.8, down from 63.7. The slip is “not a cause for concern” according to AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker: […]
The Precision Metalforming Association reports that members are forecasting a slight downturn in business conditions in the next three months. The PMA Business Conditions report is a monthly economic indicator of manufacturing, sampling opinions of 127 U.S. and Canadian metalforming companies. Average daily shipping levels are expected to decrease slightly, said metalformers, while incoming orders […]
As readers are well aware, the Fed announcement on the 17th was a nonevent as far as interest rates are concerned. This morning as we examined the currency values of the sixteen steel trading nations that we track, it was evident that traders anticipated this lack of action around the 10th to the 13th and […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), iron ore and financial futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our Managing Price Risk I & II instructor. Here is how Andre saw trading over the past week: Financial Markets: Despite the recent turbulence in the […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
Manufacturing indicators were mixed in the September Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The Bank suggests that responses may have been influenced by “volatility in the stock market and international news reports.” The index for current manufacturing activity unexpectedly dropped from 8.3 in August to -6.0. It was the first […]
The September 2015 Empire State Manufacturing Index declined for the second consecutive month, indicating a slowing in business activity for New York manufacturers. The general business conditions index declined from -14.9 to -14.7. Prior to August,the index has been hovering around the zero point for four months indicating that business activity has been subdued. Both […]
Each month the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) puts out its series of producer price indexes, for thousands of goods and materials. For an explanation of this program see the end of this piece. The latest release last Friday reported results through August. We run this analysis every three or four months to give readers […]
This report compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison showing the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. Table 1 shows both […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analysis of non-farm employment reported on Friday that 173,000 jobs were added in August which was slightly below Moody’s Analytics expectation. The number will likely be revised upward in subsequent months. June and July payrolls were revised higher by a combined 44,000. The unemployment rate, calculated from a different […]
Labor Day came and went without labor negotiations coming to a head for US Steel or ArcelorMittal. Although the parties were committed to staying at the bargaining table over the weekend, no agreement was made and, fortunately, no lockouts or strikes either. Allegheny Technology (ATI) is entering its fourth week of lockout for its 2,200 […]
Earlier this week, Steel Market Update hosted our 5th Steel Summit Conference. We had a record crowd in attendance tipping the scales at close to 300 people. We had 26 speakers over the course of the two day conference (including Peter Wright and John Packard of SMU) and, from our perspective, the longer term forecast […]
The following article on the futures markets was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk LLC and our instructor for our Managing Price Risk I and Managing Price Risk II workshops. Andre attended the SMU Steel Summit Conference on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week in Atlanta. Here are his comments about both the […]
The USW plans to meet with Allegheny Technologies Inc. and a federal mediator in Pittsburgh on Sept. 11 and 12. ATI locked out its 2200 steelworkers August 15 after contract talks broke down. The USW claims the lockout was unlawful and has been ”pursuing all legal remedies that are available.” The union in communication with […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their August report on September 1st. An explanation of the ISM index is given at the end of this piece. After seven straight months of decline the three month moving average (3MMA) of the index gained 0.67 points in June and 0.40 points in July. August gave back 0.57 […]
The Chicago Business Barometer stayed fairly steady in August, falling from 54.7 in July to 54.4. Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “It was pretty much steady as she goes in August with orders and output just about holding on to July‘s gains. While the slowdown earlier in the year looks temporary, we‘re […]
The article below is normally reserved for our Premium members, we felt it would be good to share with our Executive members also. We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. […]
The following article is written by Spencer Johnson of FC Stone LLC. With six years of experience, Spencer provides his customers strategic and tactical advice on protecting themselves against commodity price volatility in the steel markets. Spencer will rotate weekly futures articles with Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC. Spencer can be reached at spencer.johnson@intlfcstone.com. […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the spread between world hot rolled export prices as determined by SteelBenchmarker and domestic (US) hot rolled prices as published by SMU. Steel Market Update compares the world hot rolled export price to which dollars are added for freight, handling, trader margin, etc. The number […]
The USW said it is committed to moving forward in contract negotiations at US Steel and is continuing to meet regularly with US Steel representatives in Pittsburgh. The current contract agreement will expire on Sept 1 and the parties are still wrangling over health care, hours, overtime and contracting out. The USW wrote in its […]
The Durable Goods report from the US Census Bureau showed a 2 percent increase month to month of new orders in July. New orders data was stronger than expected and the second month of gain after an advance in June of 4.1 percent. July’s increase was led by orders for automotive and military goods. The […]
AWMI, August 26, 2015: Mary A. Wardle, Sales Manager, Western Region, for Steelscape has been named Member of the Year by the Association of Women in the Metal Industries (AWMI), the highest honor awarded by the organization that supports and encourages leadership roles of women in the metal industries. Ms. Wardle was nominated by her […]
The USW union is reaching back into the annuals of steel strife to remind their members of the fight that was waged in order to receive some of the things that USS and ArcelorMittal want to change. Empty rhetoric or a sign of problems to come? A recent USW update referenced the song Gary, Indiana […]