Category: Region

What are steel buyers saying this week about prices, demand, the import market, the evolving tariff situation, and more?

Ternium Mexico wants the Commerce Department to delay making its final decision in the ongoing corrosion-resistant steel dumping investigation.

With the tariff craziness showing no signs of abating, we take you on a tour of the current situation.

After over a month of increases, steel prices paused this week for some of the products tracked by SMU. Three of our price indices continued to climb, while two held steady from the prior week.

“CBP expects full compliance from the trade community for accurate reporting and payment of the additional duties. CBP will take enforcement action on non-compliance," the agency said in a March 7 bulletin.

US steel exports recovered to a five-month high in January after having fallen to a two-year low in December. This growth follows four consecutive months of declining exports.

After an unusually long period of waiting for the March scrap market settlements, several mills are now actively buying ferrous scrap. And it looks like prices are ticking up.

Section 232 tariffs are expected to go into effect March 12.

The penalties are expected to be reinstated on Wednesday, March 12. 

The administration’s trade rollercoaster is moving at record speeds, running along the rails of innovation and expansion. But it can be confusing and difficult to keep up with. US manufacturers that follow these developments closely could benefit from the ride. Companies that miss new updates, or fail to accurately interpret their duty liability, could be left feeling queasy. Some rollercoasters are not for the faint of heart, and this one is a bit like Space Mountain. We are all riding without much ability to see the next turn or drop.

Domestic shredded scrap has experienced a renaissance in pricing since January. And that increase had caused traditional exporters to ship their material to domestic users instead of overseas. But with recent changes, this cycle may end with the resurgence of export demand and continued foreign exchange fluctuations.

Imposing country-of-origin duties plus the upwardly revised Section 232 duties would create an untenable value for Midwest P1020. Modeling the extreme outcome of 25% country-of-origin tariffs plus 25% Section 232 tariffs could put Midwest physical premiums as high as $0.65 per pound. No, that is not a typo: $0.65 per pound! Primary aluminum supply chains would rotate from importing Canadian aluminum to importing it from India, the Middle East, or other very distant origins. That is worrisome for manufacturers.

Steel imports ended 2024 on a low note, with November trade falling to a one-year low and December seeing a modest 3% recovery. Then as the new year began, import volumes spiked.

SMU interviews JSW USA CEO Robert Simon.

"We urge you to resist any requests for exceptions or exclusions and to continue standing strong on behalf of American steel," the companies wrote.

US rig counts remain slightly above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is experiencing a seasonal decline from a recent seven-year high.

The Trump 1.0 tariffs appeared to have little positive effect on the US manufacturing, partly because they hurt export competitiveness.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both declined this week but remain strong. This indicates buyers are still optimistic about their companies' ability for success.

An inventory valuation of the assets of Altos Hornos de Mexico SA (AHMSA) has been completed. Local reports suggest an auction for the assets of the bankrupt steel company could come as soon as the end of this month.

Wonder what the fallout from all the Trump tariffs might be? A manufacturing renaissance? A post-WWII order in ashes? Or something a little more down the middle? Then register for our next Community Chat on Thursday, March 13 at 11 am ET. Yes, you read that correctly, SMU is shattering precedent by holding a Community Chat on a day that is not Wednesday. Our featured speaker will be Alan Price, a leading trade attorney at Wiley and someone whose columns you read regularly in SMU.

Before we get whipsawed by the current moment, it’s important to reflect on optimism. Whatever happens, consumers are going to need steel.

Headline risk has returned to the ferrous complex, with both hot-rolled coil (HRC) and busheling ferrous scrap (BCH) markets surging in response to fresh trade restrictions.

The situation on ferrous scrap has cleared up with the pause of the implementation of Canadian and Mexican blanket tariffs.

Buyers responding to our latest market survey reported longer lead times this week on all of the sheet and plate products SMU tracks.

Facing an uncertain tariff trade war, Algoma Steel took action this week, halting steel shipments to the US, laying off employees, and prepping for an unknown future, according to local media reports.

Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of districts. However, manufacturers expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes between late January and February.

The majority of the steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that domestic mills are not open to negotiating prices on new orders this week.

The latest on the trade war

Mexico has launched an anti-dumping investigation into imports of hot-rolled steel from China and Vietnam.

On 4 March, new 25% blanket tariffs across all products exported to the USA from Canada and Mexico are now in effect. The only exception is Canadian energy products, which will be assessed a 10% tariff.