While Congress has given the president enormous power over trade policy, the president wants to test the limits of that authority. If there are no guardrails, our economic and political liberty may be on the block. Stay tuned.
The demise of the VAT rebate system in China might be the most tangible sign that Beijing realizes that its unbridled access to global markets is over. There was no point in continuing a system of financial incentives to the export sector when the tariff headwinds were getting stronger.
The investment firm seeking to oust U.S. Steel’s leadership has asked the steelmaker to schedule its annual shareholder meeting after June 18. That’s the deadline set by the US government for USS and Nippon Steel to unwind their nearly $15-billion merger deal. Ancora Holdings Group sent a letter dated Feb. 27 to board members of […]
US rig counts remain just above multi-year lows, while Canadian activity is within earshot of a seven-year high.
The Chicago Business Barometer rose to an eight-month high in February. Despite the recovery, the measure continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions, as it has for over a year.
The price spread between stateside-produced CR and imports reached its widest margin in over a year.
That’s not to say Section 232 shouldn’t be tightened up. Or that certain trade practices – even among our traditional allies – weren’t problematic. But when it comes to the reboot of Section 232, I do wonder whether there will be some unintended consequences.
Four weeks have passed since the last article from Rock Trading Advisors on January 30. The paint has dried, and Midwest HRC futures have exploded higher in response to President Trump’s declaration of impending 25% tariffs on all imported steel products. The rolling 2nd month CME Midwest HRC future erupted through the top end of its downtrend, one that dates back to the peak of the winter 2022 rally. It also broke out of its narrow range seen dating back to June of last year.
Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices continued to rally in the US this week, quickly outpacing price gains seen abroad. The result: US hot band prices have grown widely more expensive than imports on a landed basis. The premium US HR tags carry over HR prices abroad now stands at a 14-month high. SMU’s average domestic HR […]
On Thursday morning, Trump posted on Truth Social about Canada and Mexico: “the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled.”
New orders gained 3.1%, reaching $286.0 billion, according to the US Census Bureau.
North American auto assemblies recovered in January, surging 33.4% above December and rebounding from a three-year low. However, according to LMC Automotive data, assemblies were still 0.1% lower year on year (y/y). After slumping in December to the lowest total since July 2021, January’s assemblies returned to typical seasonal levels. Sentiment remains tempered as carmakers […]
US light-vehicle (LV) sales slowed to an unadjusted 1.11 million units in January, a sharp cut of over 25% from December but still 3.8% above year-ago totals, according to US Bureau of Economic Analysis data. On an annualized basis, LV sales were 15.6 million units in January, down from 16.9 million units the month prior […]
President Trump has directed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate copper imports into the US under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 on national security grounds.
President Donald Trump indicated in a cabinet meeting Wednesday that a 25% blanket tariff on all imports is coming for the EU next.
As February comes to a close this week, the scrap markets are poised for another – and perhaps more extreme – move upward in March. March is usually a month when scrap prices relent as winter’s impediments subside. That’s not the case this year. And this time, the driver of prices will be increased demand from mills along with restricted flows over the last two months.
Market participants might disagree over how high flat-rolled steel price might go and for how long they might remain elevated. But there is near total agreement on one thing: Prices are up sharply again this week. The gains come on the heels of waves of mill price increases (for sheet and for plate), expectations that scrap prices will rise again in March, and the threat of tariffs looming over the market.
Tuesday, March 4, marks the end of a 30-day delay in the levies.
"The second half of last year was especially bad with the steel demand from the automotive sector slowing down, construction activity lagging and industrial production taking a hit," the CEO said.
MPG Canada is laying off 140 workers across its facilities in Ontario and Quebec.
Nucor aims to increase prices for steel plate by $160 per short ton (st) with the opening of its April order book. The Charlotte, N.C.-based steelmaker said the increase was effective with orders received on Feb. 24 in a letter to customers dated the same day.
Brazilian long products producer Gerdau is now considering siting a 600,000 ton per year specialty steel plant in the United States, rather than Mexico as initially planned, in the wake of President Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on steel imports into the US.
The US steel market has whipsawed upward on the prospect of expanded Section 232 tariffs of 25% being applied to imported steel - including downstream goods - on March 12. It seems pretty clear that domestic steel mills have the ear of the Trump administration when it comes to Section 232. The result? The much-anticipated Trump bump has finally arrived - and then some.
Do we want the benefits of the Section 232 tariffs to flow to the bottom lines of foreign steel and aluminum producers or to the US government and, ultimately, domestic manufacturers and their workers? In our view, the answer is simple. Section 232 exceptions do nothing more than lead to underserved profits for foreign manufacturers who are harming the US industrial base. That revenue could be used to pursue the Trump administration’s other policy priorities - such as deficit reduction or expanded tax cuts.
Ryerson swung to a loss in the fourth quarter, but has seen a turnaround in the last 30 days.
The latest oil and gas rig count in the US increased slightly from last week, while Canadian activity edged lower, according to Baker Hughes.
SMU’s Current Buyers’ Sentiment Index rocketed up this week, while the Future Buyers’ Sentiment Index edged down. The two indices are almost at parity.
Another eventful week in the physical and financial steel markets is coming to a close. Most importantly, this week provided complete clarity that, after months of waiting for a catalyst, we are now definitively in the early stages of a meaningful rally. The 3rd month future (currently the April contract) rose more than 8% for […]
SMU Community Chat with CRU's Josh Spoores.
SMU's Stephen Miller provides an update on the raw materials sector.