Light vehicle sales are slowing and Mexico continues to take production share from the U.S. Vehicle sales in the U.S. averaged 17.0 million units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in the first six months of 2017, down from 18.1 million in Q4 2016. March through June monthly sales were each below 17.0 million […]
Wilbur Ross will be on Capital Hill again this week as he advises the House Ways and Means Committee on the status of his Section 232 investigation. It seems like the longer the market waits for an announcement (or at least the recommendations from the Department of Commerce) the less enthusiastic people are that anything […]
The steel market is waiting anxiously to see if the Trump administration places additional tariffs or quotas on steel imports. Opponents of the proposed Section 232 trade action say it will be bad for the U.S. economy, in particular U.S. manufacturers that will have to pay more for raw materials, making them less competitive versus […]
Twice per month, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts a detailed analysis of the flat rolled steel market. We invite 650 individuals representing approximately 625 different companies to participate by taking an online questionnaire. The questions cover a wide variety of topics that are germane to their unique industry segment. The two main groups asked to […]
Boy, am I receiving mixed messages – more than I think I ever have before during my 40 year plus career in (or covering) the industry. My opinion is the mixed messages are due to the interference in “normal” market operations by the Trump administration. This is especially destructive when promises are made for Section […]
The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has seen some erosion since peaking at +77 around March 1. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market and three to six months into the future. Buyers and sellers of […]
Flat rolled lead times remain flat compared to what we reported for early July, as well as one month ago. Twice per month, Steel Market Update conducts an analysis of the flat rolled sheet and plate markets. This is done through the use of a comprehensive questionnaire focused on manufacturing companies and service centers, which […]
Despite the risks associated with Section 232 and the belief that flat rolled steel prices will rise prior to and immediately after the announcement of a Section 232 decision, mills appear somewhat more open to price discussions. Based on the responses received this week from our flat rolled market trends questionnaire, buyers and sellers of […]
After a careful analysis of the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) carbon flat rolled shipment and inventories data, and then applying that data to our proprietary Apparent Excess/Deficit inventories model, we have determined that distributor inventories improved during the month of June. At the end of May, based on the MSCI data, SMU calculates that […]
Housing starts in June jumped 8.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,215,000 and were 2.1 percent higher than in June 2016, said the Department of Commerce on Wednesday. The increase follows three months of decline and was driven by new construction in the Northeast and Midwest. Starts soared 83.7 percent in the […]
This is an over-whelming time to be involved with the steel industry. We have the steel mills announcing price increases at a time when prices normally are flat to lower (they have been running flat to mixed over the past few weeks). The market anxiety is at high ebb as steel buyers and sellers wait […]
As the Tuesday work day was coming to a close we want our readers to know that there is a meeting going on in the White House with a number of steel mill CEO’s, members of the WH staff and Wilbur Ross. According to World Trade Online the subject being discussed is Section 232… SMU […]
Is today’s contentious and acrimonious political climate having a negative effect on American business? Is the win-at-any-cost attitude in politics, so evident in everyday news reports, eroding ethical business practices in steel and other industries? Is it OK to bend the truth or to make up “fake news” to damage your competition? The desire to […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through May 2017. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for May 2017 increased 5.5 percent […]
I am working on an article regarding foreign steel offers, which have almost dried up completely due to the threats/unknowns associated with the Section 232 investigation. There have been a number of months where foreign steel imports have exceeded 3.5 million tons. We are hearing that these months will soon be behind us – although […]
The Steel Market Update Steel Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States remained positive this week for the second consecutive week, following a 10-week streak of being in negative territory. MoMo is a trailing indicator and shows the relationship between the current U.S. hot rolled coil price movements against the previous […]
What was it – Tuesday that I said I thought the Section 232 results would be much less than what the steel mills thought a few weeks back? Last night on Air Force One President Trump spoke about considering quotas and tariffs on steel imports into the U.S. According to excerpts of his conversation with […]
The Dodge Momentum Index continued to exhibit strength in June, climbing 1.1 percent to 141.1. The monthly measure of nonresidential construction projects in planning was driven by a 4.8 percent jump in planning for institutional construction. The commercial component of the index dipped 1.3 percent, but was 11.8 percent higher than in June 2016. Institutional […]
Earlier today, I got a request from one of our readers looking for articles about Section 232 as they wanted to do an article on the subject for their customers. In responding to their inquiry, I performed two searches using the search box in the top righthand corner of our website. (I usually log in to […]
Flat roll lead times have remained within a narrow range over the past six months, according to the manufacturing companies and steel service centers responding to our flat rolled market trends analysis last week. Hot rolled lead times now average 4.41 weeks, which is the same as what we reported in mid-June, but still one-half […]
We saw steel mill lead times as being essentially the same to slightly higher than what we measured at the time of the last price increase announcements (week of June 5th). When the announcements were made, most steel mills were actively trying to collect increases. We saw the bottom of our price range rise, and […]
The question steel buyers are going to be asking themselves as this week begins is, will the Trump administration finally announce their findings on Section 232 and will this announcement allow President Trump to move on the duties or quotas expected by the domestic steel mills and many steel buyers? The question I am asking […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has come off historical highs set during the late first and early second quarters 2017. However, buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic about the potential for their company to be successful in both the existing market as well as three to six months into the […]
Auto sales took a dive in June with the top three American automakers reporting sliding sales and foreign automakers reporting mixed results. Ford Motor Co. sales fell 5.1 percent year-over-year, while GM sales slipped 4.7 percent. FCA USA sales plunged 7 percent, in part due to a planned reduction in sales to its rental operation. […]
This is my gut feeling, my opinion based on what I have been reading and watching in the news like everyone else. The world is trying to figure out if President Trump is going to start a trade war and the first bullets are made with flat rolled steel, pipe and long products. I am […]
With the threat of a Section 232 decision in favor of the domestic steel mills looming over the market, Steel Market Update (SMU) has decided to take our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Higher. It is our opinion conditions are in place to push flat rolled steel prices even higher from their current levels. […]
Happy Independence Day Weekend for those in the United States and Happy Dominion Day (150 years) for those in Canada. I hope everyone is enjoying some extra time off with family and friends. From here all is quiet – the only news we have to share is a change in the date of our next […]
An explanation of the Key Market Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation, which is subjective, and our analysis of trends, which is based on the latest facts available. In the June […]
Holiday Schedule for Steel Market Update: We will produce a short version of our newsletter on Sunday evening, July 2. We will not produce a newsletter on Tuesday, July 4, and our offices will be closed on both Monday and Tuesday of next week in observance of the Fourth of July Holiday in the USA and […]
Last week, Steel Market Update (SMU) conducted an analysis of the flat rolled steel market trends. As part of that process, we asked the 100+ companies who responded to our inquiries if quotas or tariffs would be good or bad for their company. We found the majority of the mostly manufacturers and service centers responding […]