Flat rolled steel inventories ended November in approximate balance with current activity levels, based on the proprietary Steel Market Update Apparent Excess/Deficit model, which SMU applies to MSCI inventory and shipment data. Comparing shipments and inventory on a historical basis allows SMU to forecast if the distribution channel is likely to be over- or under-supplied […]
Through November, Mexico continued to take a greater share of light vehicle assemblies from the U.S. and Canada. U.S. Vehicle Sales At the close of 2017, the Big Three U.S. auto makers see their market share closing in on less than 44 percent, down from over 50 percent in 2007. This comes as analysts are […]
In addition to the tax overhaul passed by the Republicans this week, President Trump has promised a trillion-dollar infrastructure overhaul. Given the possible $1.5 trillion cost of the tax cuts, will the public have the stomach for another big bill to fix the nation’s aging roads and bridges? Respondents to Steel Market Update’s market trends […]
Mill lead times have inched up slightly in the past two weeks following price hikes announced by the major mills earlier this month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that more mills are holding the line on pricing following the price increases announced earlier this month. Mill order books are firm and there’s no negotiating for a better price, according to 28 percent of respondents to SMU’s latest steel market questionnaire. About 22 percent say they still find […]
More than nine out of 10 respondents to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire see steel prices heading higher in the first quarter. Seven percent say they see no clear direction for prices. Virtually no one expects prices to decline in the wake of price hike announcements by the major mills earlier this month. […]
Existing home sales surged for a third month in November, increasing at their strongest pace in almost 11 years, reports the National Association of Realtors. Sales jumped 5.6 percent sequentially to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million and were 3.8 percent higher year-over-year. The median home price for all types of existing housing […]
This is the last “official” issue of Steel Market Update for the 2017 calendar year. The Steel Market Update team is looking forward to taking a week off to relax with family and friends and to reflect on what 2017 has meant to them. We hope that you will have a quiet moment to do […]
Housing starts surprised economists by jumping 3.3 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. Compared to November 2016, starts were up 12.9 percent. Starts of single-family homes jumped 5.3 percent to 930,000 units, the highest level since September 2007. Construction starts on buildings with five units or more in November inched […]
For better or worse, depending on your income and situation, it looks like President Trump and the Republicans will win a big political victory with passage of their historic tax overhaul this week. No doubt, there will be a shakeout period during which the many complicated details of the measure will be scrutinized, and their […]
Happy Holidays to everyone. I know I have told you on a number of occasions that I am now no longer at my desk, but rather slowly moving out to sea for an extended period of rest. Well, as much rest as a workaholic can possibly get. The rest of the SMU team is busy […]
Service centers continue to hold flat rolled inventories steady at 2.89 months of supply at the end of November, according to the proprietary Steel Market Update Service Center Inventories Index (SSII). This is now the third consecutive month we have found flat rolled steel distributors’ inventories close to the three months of supply level. Contrast […]
Both flat rolled and plate steel distributors saw only a very modest drop in inventories as of the end of July. Inventories continue to be “balanced” at 2.7 months of supply on flat rolled and 2.1 months of supply on plate, according to Steel Market Update’s proprietary inventory data. Flat Rolled Spread Tightens Although our […]
You may or may not be aware that we updated our Steel Market Update website over the Thanksgiving Holiday weekend. We updated software that controls a number of the functions of our website in order to speed up the site and to make sure that it is up-to-date over the next few years of use. […]
I have been working on our new service center months of supply report and I hope to have it to the distributors who provide the data tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 13). I will then publish for our Executive newsletter readers on Thursday evening. I continue to entertain adding more service centers to the mix as we […]
Domestic mills are in the driver’s seat and steel prices have nowhere to go but up, agreed most respondents to Steel Market Update’s flat roll market trends questionnaire this week. SMU contacts steel buyers twice each month to monitor their views on market conditions. Asked for their opinion on the current direction of steel prices, […]
The Dodge Momentum Index climbed 13.9 percent to 149.5 in November. The Dodge Momentum Index, published by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Construction planning was […]
Below is the latest data released by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through October 2017. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for October 2017 increased 12.2 percent, […]
I have been pointing to the circumvention ruling as one of those “Black Swan” events that could come back to haunt the way importers do business. The section of the ruling that could potentially have the most teeth is the definition of what constitutes “significant transformation,” which allows substrate from one country to be converted […]
Current and future sentiment among flat rolled steel buyers ticked up a bit in the past two weeks, according to the Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index. The same pattern started to appear at this time last year, leading into a strong first quarter. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index measures changes in buyers’ […]
Mill lead times have seen little change in the past month, according to the latest data from Steel Market Update’s flat roll market questionnaire, despite the price hikes announced by the mills two weeks ago. One of the key indicators tracked by SMU, lead times reflect the activity at the mills and the order levels […]
Buyers of flat rolled steel report that domestic steel mills are tightening up negotiations a bit on spot pricing, especially on cold rolled and coated products, as would be expected following the price increases announced two weeks ago. But the majority report that mills are still generally open to price discussions as the year comes […]
As a result of this week’s preliminary circumvention ruling, Vietnamese traders here in the United States must pay the Chinese duties on the substrate used to produce cold rolled and CORE (corrosion resistant) steels if they are unable to prove the substrate used was from another country. Here’s the actual ruling: “The Department of Commerce […]
Steel Market Update adjusted our Price Momentum Indicator to Higher from Neutral earlier today. It is our opinion that flat rolled steel prices will rise over the next 30 to 60 days. We last adjusted Momentum on Oct. 18, 2017, when we moved from “Lower” to “Neutral.” We are hearing from buyers and sellers of […]
Late this afternoon, the U.S. Department of Commerce released their positive determination that Vietnam and China circumvented existing antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on cold rolled and corrosion resistant (galvanized/Galvalume) steels. This is a significant ruling and will create issues for some trading companies and steel buyers as the ruling goes back to November […]
Steel Market Update’s steel market indicators show improved trends in the November data. In our examination of data released in November, our view of the present situation is that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance is within the band of historically normal. The total of […]
A strong U.S. economy is helping to boost auto sales along with incentives offered by dealers to move 2017 models off dealer lots. Approximately 1.383 million U.S. light-vehicles were sold in November, according to WardsAuto, after providing an estimate for delayed Nissan sales results. That puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 17.3 million units, […]
I am sitting in the airport in Fort Lauderdale waiting on my flight to Las Vegas. I am on my way to attend the HARDI annual conference. If you are planning on and would like to meet with me during the conference, you can email or text me. My email address is John@SteelMarketUpdate.com and my […]
Construction employment increased in 243 out of 358 metro areas between October 2016 and October 2017, declined in 59 and stagnated in 56, according to a new analysis of federal employment data released by the Associated General Contractors of America. “Growing demand, especially from the private sector, is continuing to drive construction employment gains in […]
I have been out of the office all day, so I apologize if my Final Thoughts this evening are less than inspiring… Our website designers have been busy working to resolve some of the bugs that arose when we updated our website over the weekend. The login issues have been resolved. We know there is […]