As most of you know, I am in New York City running with the steel crowd associated with the Steel Success Strategies and the surrounding steel “events” entertaining the industry over the first three days of this week. I have probably spoken to 60-70 individuals about many subjects of interest, pricing, lead times, potential for […]
Below is the latest release issued by the the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) regarding residential and commercial heating and cooling equipment shipments through April 2016. You may read the press release on their website here. Residential Storage Water Heaters U.S. shipments of residential gas storage water heaters for April 2016 shifted slightly to […]
A reminder that I will be in New York City beginning on Monday and will not return to my office until late on Wednesday afternoon. I will be attending a number of steel-related meetings and conferences that surround the World Steel Dynamics Steel Success Strategies Conference. I do have some time slots open on Tuesday […]
There are two headlines when reviewing our MoMo Index this week. The first is our Index has been in positive territory for 23 consecutive weeks. The second is showing the relationship in the current price movement compared against the 12 week moving average is in decline. That steep rise we saw earlier is pulling back […]
The Dodge Momentum Index, a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, rose 2.4 percent to 119.4 in May. The commercial sector led the increase with a 6.4 percent gain, offsetting the 3.4 percent decline in institutional construction planning. “May’s increase places the overall Index 3.6% higher than its year-ago […]
A reminder that I will be in New York City beginning on Monday, June 13th and Tuesday, June 14th. I have a number of commitments but, if you would like to get together with me please shoot me an email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or you can text me while in NYC at: 770-596-6268. I will be at […]
I spent a good portion of my day today talking to traders (importers of foreign steel) as well as steel buyers. A number of questions were raised about the amount of foreign steel actually being offered as well as the amount of orders that were actually being placed. From my perspective, I am not seeing […]
Last week Steel Market Update conducted our early June flat rolled steel market trends analysis. Besides gathering data regarding how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful (SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index) we also asked questions about pricing, demand, buying patterns, foreign steel, lead times and negotiations. […]
This Key Markets Indicator report is something we produce for our Premium level clients. However, we thought that our Executive level readers would appreciate knowing why we continue to be bullish on the direction of the market based on our analysis of the Key Market Indicators. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given […]
I received a couple of notes from trading companies thanking me for my article on Thursday evening (The Sky is NOT Falling… at least not yet) as I tried to put into context some of the pricing available for foreign steel, correct some misinformation and look at the bigger picture. Even as questions arise about […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to be optimistic regarding their company’s ability to be successful in both the current market environment as well as looking out three to six months into the future. The SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index for Current Sentiment rose +2 points from mid-May at +69. One year ago […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 34. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Flat rolled steel mill lead times continue to be extended according to those responding to this week’s steel market trends analysis (lead times are the amount of time it takes for an order placed today until the steel is produced and shipped out of the domestic steel mill). Lead times now average two weeks or […]
Blue is the color of the sky and that may be the limit when it comes to domestic steel mills need to negotiate flat rolled steel pricing. Based on the results from this week’s flat rolled market trends analysis produced by Steel Market Update, steel buyers and sellers are reporting, almost unanimously, that all of […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data, usually on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. April data was released on Wednesday June 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In […]
U.S. auto sales may have finally reached the peak that that analysts have been predicting. Overall the market declined 6 percent for sales of 1,536,276 light vehicles. WardsAuto places May’s seasonally adjusted annual rate at 17.4 million units, up from 17.3 in April, but short of the 17.6 million from a year ago. Trucks once […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States indicated prices continue to rise, albeit at a slightly slower pace than what we measured last week. MoMo has been positive (indicating higher prices) for the last 22 weeks, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing […]
My understanding is most of the mills canceled any scrap not yet delivered by the end of May. They do this when they believe scrap negotiations for June will result in better prices for them. It is still very early in the negotiation process, especially considering that Monday was a holiday. One scrap expert told […]
The latest release of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices shows home prices continue to rise across the U.S. On a year-over-year basis, the U.S. National Home Price Index in March gained 5.2 percent while the 10- and 20-City Composites remained unchanged at 4.7 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively. On a month-over-month seasonally adjusted basis the […]
U.S. flat rolled steel service centers were able to reduce their excess inventories by 222,000 tons, according to our proprietary analysis of the MSCI data released earlier this month. Our Apparent Excess/Deficit model has the distributors carrying a 46,000 ton excess as of the end of April. This is the first time we have seen […]
Both auto and light truck sales in the US dropped abruptly in March but recovered to different degrees in April. Auto sales declined from 7.4 million units in February at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) to 6.9 million in March then recovered partially to 7.1 million in April. Light trucks declined from 10.2 million […]
To all of our U.S. readers, welcome back from the Memorial Day Holiday. Each holiday is a big deal to me as this past weekend was one of those rare occasions where I wasn’t writing or studying the market every day and was able to actually take a couple of days off and give my […]
The Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Index (MoMo) for hot rolled steel in the United States indicated prices continue to rise albeit at a slightly slower pace than what we measured last week. MoMo has been positive (indicating higher prices) for the 21st consecutive week, following a 21 week negative streak. MoMo is a trailing […]
There could be a further divergence between hot rolled base pricing and that of coated steels. With the combination of the corrosion resistant “final determination” ruling by the US Department of Commerce and the reduction of hot rolled price offers from offshore into the United States, well, things are a little out of whack. In […]
Sales of new single-family houses in April surged 16.6 percent from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000, according to estimates released by the Commerce Department. The increase in percentage was the highest since January 1992 and the highest annual rate since 2008. Sales were up 23.8 percent from the April 2015. March […]
the U.S. Department of Commerce will release their Final Determination on the corrosion resistant antidumping and countervailing duty trade suit on Wednesday, May 25th (not today). We will have a full report once we receive the announcement on Wednesday. Steel Market Update will not publish our newsletter on Sunday, May 29th due to the Memorial […]
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts our flat rolled steel market trends analysis. During the process we find out how buyers and sellers are feeling about their company’s ability to be successful in the current steel environment (SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index) and we probe many other areas of interest to those manufacturing, […]
The National Association of Realtors reports existing home sales in April rose 1.7 percent from March for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million. Sales were 6.0 percent higher than in April 2015. “Primarily driven by a convincing jump in the Midwest, where home prices are most affordable, sales activity overall was at a […]
In this evening’s issue we have quite a bit of information about China and the debate regarding Chinese exports, over-capacity and perhaps implosion of steel prices by the end of June. We also have a letter from a manufacturing company who asked the question, why don’t we accept the transfer of wealth from China to […]
Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to remain optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment (our Current Sentiment Index). On a single data point our Current Sentiment Index was down -1 point from the beginning of May. However, we prefer to use the three month moving average […]