SMU Data and Models
Steel Mill Average Lead Times Extending
Written by John Packard
November 22, 2016
Flat rolled steel lead times continued to move out (extend) according to those taking our flat rolled steel market trends survey which we began on Friday and concluded earlier today. Lead times are now more than one week longer than year ago levels as steel buyers have entered the market in response to the three price increase announcements that have been made by the flat rolled steel mills since late October.
Hot rolled lead times are now averaging more than 4 weeks (4.18 weeks) which is a significant move compared to the 2.84 week average we reported on the 15th of October. One year ago HRC lead times were just under 3.0 weeks (2.91 weeks).
Cold rolled lead times are now averaging 6.35 weeks, up .35 weeks from the beginning of the month. In mid-October lead times were 5.0 weeks and one year ago they were less than 5 weeks (4.75 weeks).
Galvanized lead times have extended close to 7.0 weeks (6.85 weeks) and are about one half of a week longer than what we reported as our average at the beginning of November. One year ago GI lead times were barely above 5 weeks (5.11 weeks).
Galvalume lead times are now averaging more than 7 weeks (7.36 weeks) which is close to 1.5 weeks longer than the 6.0 weeks reported one year ago.
Lead times are a key indicator of the strength of the domestic order books. The longer the lead times the better the odds are that price increase announcements will stick.
The lead times reported by SMU are from our survey results and are not in any way associated with the lead times individual mills are reporting to their customers. Our lead times are an average of all the responses we receive from manufacturing companies and service center/wholesalers.
A side note: The data for both lead times and negotiations comes from only service center and manufacturer respondents. We do not include commentary from the steel mills, trading companies, or toll processors in this particular group of questions.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Negotiations data, visit our website here.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Scrap Survey: Sentiment Indices rise
Both current and future scrap sentiment jumped this month, though survey participants reported responses before key trade news was announced.
SMU Survey: Sentiment splits, buyers have better view of future than the present
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “ferrous scrap survey” results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results […]
SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]
SMU Survey: Sheet lead times stabilize, plate contracts
Mill lead times for sheet products were steady to slightly longer this week compared to our late June market check, while plate lead times contracted, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.