Category: SMU

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Sure, demand isn’t as good the market had hoped it would be earlier this year. But assuming it doesn’t fall of a cliff, buyers will have to restock at some point. And that might give domestic mills enough leverage to raise prices again.

Most sheet and plate prices edged lower again this week, albeit at a slower pace compared to the movements seen over the last seven weeks. Buyers remain cautious and hesitant to hold onto much inventory, citing lingering demand concerns, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a potentially weakening scrap market in June.

Following three weekly increases, domestic mill output edged lower last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

While I would anticipate market sentiment to pivot and improve if all the questions around tariffs were answered, that still leaves us with a few other factors.

Market participants in both the US and Europe noted that most buyers are patiently waiting for prices to reduce as they have enough inventory at hand.

SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices resumed their downward trend this week, erasing the modest recovery seen two weeks ago.

Let's see what SMU survey respondents are saying about Trump's tariffs.

SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a second straight month in April after repeated gains at the start of the year, according to our latest service center inventories data.

Sheet and plate lead times declined across the board this week, according to buyers responding to the latest SMU market survey. While our lead time ranges were unchanged compared to mid-April levels, average production times for each steel product we measure have declined from they were two weeks ago.

Domestic mills are largely negotiable on spot prices, according to the majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey.

The Tariff Town amusement park ride shows no signs of slowing down.

All of SMU’s sheet and plate steel price indices declined this week, easing by $30-40 per short ton (st) on average since early May. Prices continue to slide lower as buyers remain on the sidelines, wary of holding much excess inventory and expecting further declines.

The price spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap narrowed again in May, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.

Since the US ferrous scrap settlements for May have been finalized, steelmakers are turning their attention to continued pig iron flows with the wind behind their backs.

Domestic mill output continues to grow, with raw steel production rising last week to the highest rate recorded since last September, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The volume of finished steel entering the US market rebounded in March, according to our analysis of US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data.

A Pennsylvania state senator plans to submit legislation to incentivize steelmaking in the state.

Nucor lowered its weekly spot price for hot-rolled (HR) coil for a second straight week, down $10 per short ton (st), after keeping it in a holding pattern for most of April.

Shipments of water heaters, air conditioner/heat pumps, and warm-air furnaces all increased from February to March. Total monthly shipments are now at a seven-month high.

However, in a month plagued by tariff and economic uncertainty, both current and near-term outlooks for our scrap survey respondents remained surprisingly optimistic.

Here are highlights of what’s happened and a few things to keep an eye on this upcoming week.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined again this week in the US and Canada, according to Baker Hughes.

The volume of steel exported from the US marginally increased from February to March, according to the latest US Department of Commerce figures. Although up month over month (m/m), export levels have generally trended downward over the past year.  

Cliffs came tantalizing close to buying U.S. Steel in 2023. There were rumors in 2024 that Cliffs might buy NLMK USA before it ultimately purchased Stelco for $2.5 billion in November of last year. Who would have thought that asset sales would have been the focal point of discussion just six months later?

US steel imports rebounded from February to March, rising to the second-highest monthly rate witnessed in the past ten months, according to final data recently released by the US Commerce Department. April license data shows that gain has likely been erased, with trade falling to the lowest rate of the year and several product categories hitting multi-year lows.

SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics earlier this week, including market prices and demand, tariffs and reshoring, inventories and imports, and evolving market trends.

Steel buyers said Nucor’s price decrease was a public acknowledgement of what most of the market had already known - that sheet prices were moving lower in a more significant way. The question now is whether mills and service centers will manage the decline or whether prices might fall rapidly, they said.

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SunCoke Energy posted lower earnings in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the company said it has extended the cokemaking contract for U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works in Illinois through the end of September 2025.