Steel prices continue to fall very, very quickly. Where they’ll bottom and when remains unclear. I wrote in an in-print magazine article last month that I hesitated to put pen to paper for fear that any prices I wrote would be out of date by the time the article was on the page. My fear now […]
Steel buyers remain a surprisingly bullish bunch despite rapidly declining steel prices as well as worries about COVID and the broader economy, . Steel Market Update’s survey this week asked service center and manufacturing executives if they are optimistic or pessimistic about their prospects in the first half of 2022. About 64% considered themselves optimists versus […]
SMU continues to hear that domestic HR prices are moving lower, in particular for large orders. Are mills trying to keep lead times above three weeks, are we going back to a cost plus model on the EAF side, or is it something else entirely? This isn’t 2008-09 or even 2014-15. The music hasn’t stopped […]
When I was a kid, watching the Olympics was a big feel-good event. The family would all gather round the TV eating popcorn and rooting for the Americans as they competed against the world’s best athletes for a medal and their photo on a Wheaties box. There was something pure and uplifting about the whole […]
I don’t want to lead prices down, but I don’t think it’s any secret at this point that sheet prices are falling fast. “The prophecies have been borne out,” is how one mill executive put it. What does that look like in practical terms? Some mills are offering hot-rolled coil at about $1,200 per ton […]
Construction employment in December remained below pre-pandemic levels in more than half of U.S. states as firms struggle to find enough workers to hire, reports the Associated General Contractors of America in its latest analysis of government data. AGC hopes that this week’s decision by the Biden administration to withdraw its emergency vaccine mandate will ease […]
For those of you who participate in our bi-weekly steel market analysis questionnaires, or if you are a Premium level member, the results from the last few weeks would suggest service centers are at a point where they will support new price increases by the domestic steel mills. We collect data from manufacturing companies and […]
How anxious is the steel market in the face of sharply declining steel prices? Based on Steel Market Update’s survey this week, anxiety levels are not as high as one might think. As more than one steel exec has commented recently, “Demand will be our saving grace.” SMU asked service center and manufacturing executives in […]
U.S. auto sales fell further in December to 1.2 million units, down 26.4% versus the same year-ago period, according to LMC Automotive. The results caused the selling rate to decelerate to 12.4 million units annually, compared to 12.9 million units the month prior. Low inventories continued to plague the market and were the chief cause […]
Though supply-chain bottlenecks, semiconductor scarcity and labor issues have improved for North American automakers, experts anticipate pockets of disruption lingering for much of H1 2022. Stellantis – Chrysler’s European parent company – said the automaker’s assembly plants in Belvidere, Ill., and Toluca, Mexico, are back up and running after recent downtime. Yet, its assemblies in Brampton […]
Steel Buyers Sentiment, as measured by Steel Market Update, has seen little change in the past two months despite declining steel prices and concerns about the economy and COVID heading into 2022. SMU surveys buyers every two weeks and asks how they view their chances of success in the near and longer term. SMU’s Current […]
I want to spend some time talking about the Steel Market Update website and the value that can be found there. Over the years we have tweaked and added new content to the site as we strive to provide more information to the industry and our readers. The SMU Website There are a number of […]
Steel mill lead times – a leading indicator of prices – continue to trend downward and are approaching what used to be considered “normal.” If lead times are nearing a point at which they may soon level off, what might that say about steel prices? Steel Market Update’s check of the market this week puts […]
The power position in price negotiations between steel mills and steel purchasers has seen a complete turnabout in the past seven months, transitioning from a nearly 100% seller’s market in July 2021 to a 100% buyer’s market today (see chart below). Every two weeks, Steel Market Update asks readers: Are you finding the domestic mills […]
Existing-home sales contracted in December, snapping a streak of three consecutive months of gain, reported the National Association of Realtors. Although sales fell in all four U.S. regions last month on both a month-over-month and a year-over-year basis, overall sales for 2021 were up 8.5% versus the prior year. December sales fell 4.6% from November […]
SMU’s latest prices are out, and hot-rolled coil is down by $55 per ton while galvanized prices are down a comparatively modest $25 per ton. That’s been the trend for a while now – that galvanized prices have been “stickier” than hot-rolled coil prices on the way down. I wrote last week in Final Thoughts […]
Builder confidence slipped in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Growing inflation concerns and ongoing supply-chain disruptions snapped a four-month rise in home builder sentiment even as consumer demand remains robust. January’s HMI reading moved one point lower to a reading of 83. “Higher material costs and […]
U.S. heating and cooling equipment shipments in November declined 12.9% from October to 1.78 million units, according to recent data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). However, November shipment levels are up 7.6% from those seen one year prior. Recall that 2020 monthly shipment levels were somewhat erratic; shipments in the second quarter were […]
Toyota has reduced its North American production schedules for the second month in a row because of shortages stemming from COVID-19 and supply-chain bottlenecks. The Japanese automaker said on Tuesday that its North American assembly plants would make approximately 25,000-30,000 fewer vehicles than initially projected in February. That number could change because “the situation remains fluid,” […]
I was reading your Final Thoughts and appreciated most of your comments, but I have some major issues with the inaccuracy of this paragraph. “Accounting tricks like inventory write-downs can help narrow the gap between a service center’s cost for steel and what a customer is willing to pay for it. But some losses are inevitable, […]
North American auto assemblies contracted in December to the second lowest monthly total in 2021 after expanding the two prior months. December’s production total was down 14.7% sequentially, and down 15.0% from the same month last year. The ongoing microchip shortage and supply-chain disruptions are still limiting the automotive sector. And although most carmakers have […]
Flat Rolled = 63.9 Shipping Days of Supply Plate = 67.1 Shipping Days of Supply Flat Rolled U.S. service center flat rolled inventories jumped in December, in line with seasonal trends. At the end of December, service centers carried 63.9 shipping days of supply on an adjusted basis, up from 57.1 in November, according to […]
Monthly Key Market Indicators continued their shift to a neutral position throughout December, according to the latest analysis by Steel Market Update. Positive indicators held for the first time in seven months, while negative indicators eased. Ongoing economic dynamics such as an underperforming job market, supply-chain bottlenecks, rising inflation and producer prices, as well as a […]
Selling secondary steel isn’t what it used to be in a market niche that seems to be getting smaller. The secondary market has always been about relationships and matching customers’ needs to the nonprime material that becomes available. And in the current environment, there’s even more wheeling and dealing, sources told me this week. “It’s a […]
The bubble is bursting. Not just any bubble. We’re talking the bubble that is ridiculously wide spreads between hot-rolled coil prices and base prices for cold rolled and coated products. Case in point: SMU’s hot-rolled coil price stands at $1,480 per ton, and our cold-rolled and galvanized base prices are at $1,880 per ton – […]
The Dodge Momentum Index declined 3% in December to a reading of 166.4, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. Though the year ended on a down note, 2021 was a good one for construction with the index rising by 23%, its strongest annual gain in 15 years. Both components of the construction index also declined from November […]
Flat-rolled steel prices continue to fall, but the market participants I spoke to today were taking the news in stride. SMU’s average hot-rolled coil price now stands at $1,480 per ton ($74 per cwt), down $55 per ton from $1,535 per ton a week ago and down $475 per ton from a 2021 high – […]
Chrysler’s van assembly plant in Saltillo, Mexico, will take downtime through Thursday, Feb. 10, for retooling, a company spokeswoman said. The Saltillo plant makes the Ram ProMaster van and has, like four other Chrysler plants in North America, been down since Monday, Jan. 3. Assembly plants in Belvidere, Ill.; Brampton, Ontario; Windsor, Ontario; and Toluca, […]
After disappointing years in 2020 and 2021, the auto industry and its suppliers stand to enjoy a considerably better year in 2022, said Rod Lache, managing director and automotive analyst with Wolfe Research. “We think in the U.S. there are at least 10 million units of undersupply in the market, which represents pent-up demand and is […]
The big question entering 2022 is how fast, and how far, steel prices will decline. As Wolfe Research Managing Director Timna Tanners said during our Community Chat this week, “the trajectory for 2022 will depend on the pace of destocking, the new capacity ramping up and demand.” Steel Market Update’s latest survey data offers some […]