More than 80 percent of the steel buyers polled by Steel Market Update in the last 10 days believe steel prices will test the lows reached earlier this year. SMU’s current average hot rolled price is $525 a ton, just $5 above the $520 low hit in late June. Pointing to sketchy demand, some believe […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores Sheet prices in North America have taken another step down this week losing $15-17 /s.ton w/w. Industrial demand remains limited as evidenced by the most recent ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index, which showed another contraction. Adding to this structurally weak demand environment is the ongoing strike at General Motors. This […]
By CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch After several weeks of steady Turkish scrap, import prices were stable last week at $225 /t CFR for HMS 80:20. We have assessed seven deals totaling about 274 kt, indicating a second week of strong scrap purchasing activity. Turkish scrap import prices have now reached a level that allows Turkish steel mills to export […]
Questions about demand, tariffs, trade wars and the overall health of the economy continue to put downward pressure on steel prices. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $500-$550 per ton ($25.00-$27.50/cwt) with an average of $525 per ton ($26.25/cwt) FOB mill, east of the Rockies. The […]
With three quarters of 2019 nearly complete, U.S. steel mills have managed to keep capacity utilization above the industry’s target of 80 percent, producing 3.4 percent more steel than they did in the first three quarters of 2018, reported the American Iron and Steel Institute. Through the week ending Sept. 28, domestic steelmakers produced 72,593,000 net […]
Raw materials prices were erratic in September with four of the five considered here experiencing price reversals since August. Table 1 summarizes the price changes through Sept. 25 of the five materials considered in this analysis. It reports the month / month, 3 months / 3 months and 12 months / 12 months changes on […]
Editor’s note: The Chinese government currently bars exports of ferrous scrap to other parts of the world to assure China of an adequate domestic supply. As this analysis by CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill points out, China’s economy will eventually generate a scrap supply that far exceeds its scrap consumption, opening up the doors to […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores U.S. plate prices have fallen to a new cycle low and threaten to move lower. Prices here were assessed at $687 /s.ton, a $16 /s.ton fall w/w. This is now the lowest price recorded since early 2018. Price momentum of the plate market has taken a negative turn for […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel A $17/ST drop in Midwest HR spot prices as reflected in the decline of the CME August HR average and the […]
With about a week left in the month, U.S. steel imports in September are trending to total about 2 million tons, based on Steel Market Update’s projection of Commerce Department license data. Total imports in both August and September are significantly below average, primarily because of the surge in semifinished imports in July. Slab imports, […]
We saw further weakening in pricing this week, based on the active flat rolled and plate steel market trends questionnaire which began on Monday. We did see evidence of pressure on prices from a number of different areas. From the service centers, we saw reports of hot rolled at $500 per ton. However, we do […]
Steelmakers had a good run, keeping their mills running at 80 percent capacity or better for 30 weeks this year. But the market has shifted and the trend has reversed. Raw steel production by U.S. mills saw another small decline last week, taking the industry’s average capability utilization rate down to 77.7 percent. Mill utilization […]
Total U.S. raw steel production in the month of July rose 2.4 percent to 8,178,563 net tons, reports the American Iron and Steel Institute in Washington. August production is right in line with the 2019 average of 8,146,449 tons and is up 0.5 percent compared to the same month last year. Broken down by production […]
July apparent steel supply was calculated at 9,351,701 net tons, according to data recently released by the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. steel exports. July apparent steel […]
BY CRU Analyst Alexander Ordosch For the week ending Sept. 20, Turkish scrap import prices fell for the seventh consecutive week to $228 /t CFR for HMS 80:20, down $11 /t w/w. We assessed two deals from the UK totaling 37 kt of scrap. The current price is the lowest in the weekly price assessment on record and the lowest level […]
Scrap prices are heading down and could dip below the $200/GT mark as the gap between scrap supplies and demand continues to widen. With mill operating rates declining under 80 percent and scrap export markets dropping drastically, expect steel prices to follow suit, said scrap consultant John Harris, CEO of Aaristic Services. Scrap is the […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain The mismatch between seaborne coal supply and demand deepened during the week, causing CRU to assess the Premium HCC $17 /t lower w/w at $128 /t, FOB Australia. Demand for seaborne coal in China, India and Europe was weak in the past week. The macroeconomic environment in India continues to […]
Domestic steelmakers managed to reverse the year’s long downtrend in steel prices for a few weeks in July and August, but the turnaround was short-lived. As of mid-September, Steel Market Update’s Price Momentum Indicator is pointing firmly lower for hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel prices, as well as for steel plate, as the […]
Steel Market Update thought it might be interesting to review steel prices over the past 11 years, or since we began producing our own steel indices. As you can see by the graphic below, there have been three strong downward cycles over the past 11 years. The first was in 2011, the second began in […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel prices (delivered to U.S. ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other costs […]
SMU contributor Gaurav Chhibbar is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Gaurav’s previous role, he was a trader at Cargill spending time in […]
U.S. steel imports were trending considerably below average though mid-September at less than 2 million tons, based on Commerce Department license data. Imports of semi-finished steel, tracking at just over 360,000 tons, are a bit more than half the normal level, as the mills are still working off the nearly 1.2 million tons of slabs […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Helen O’Cleary August ended on a bearish note as weak economic data from the USA signaled that the U.S. economy had slipped into contraction territory and European manufacturing data confirmed ongoing contraction. These data, coupled with ongoing rmb weakness, heightened concerns over metal demand going forward and helped push zinc’s price to […]
Demand for sheet products is declining due to the weakness in manufacturing. Construction expenditures are showing signs of softening and will reduce the demand for long products through the balance of 2019. This analysis by Steel Market Update is based on steel mill shipment data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) and import/export […]
Flat rolled and plate steel prices have definitely reversed course and are moving lower, based on the results of our market analysis this week. We found the number of steel buyers actually buying steel to be limited. Sentiment has become negative and price momentum has shifted to Lower on all products as demand is now […]
Raw steel production by domestic steelmakers declined for the third week in a row, taking the industry’s average capability utilization rate down by another full percentage point to 77.8 percent. The last time the utilization rate was above 80 percent was the week of Aug. 24. Mill production has dipped by nearly 3 percentage points […]
By CRU Analyst Ryan McKinley Domestic scrap prices in the U.S. fell by $30-40 /l.ton in September depending on region and grade—by about $20 /l.ton lower than was generally expected by the market. The steeper-than-expected decline was caused by a confluence of factors including ample supply, mill outages and a weakening export market. Obsolete prices were […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill The pervasiveness of steel market weakness came to the fore this month, particularly for steel long products, leading to a sharp drop in scrap prices in almost every market we assess. Consequently, the CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) dropped by 8.3 percent m/m to 209.4 (see chart), the lowest level since November […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]