Category: US

The Chicago Business Barometer increased marginally in September but continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and continue to indicate optimism amongst steel buyers.

Over three quarters of the steel buyers participating in our market survey this week reported that mills are negotiable on new order prices

We saw a slight upward movement in some products compared to early September, but nothing substantial enough to signal a shift in the market.

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in the US dropped to one of the lowest readings of the year in September. With concerns mounting about business conditions and the labor market, the tumble was the biggest monthly decline since August 2021.

In this Premium analysis we cover oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels in North America. Energy prices and rig counts are advance indicators of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.

SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy.

The latest Federal Reserve data paints a healthy and stable manufacturing sector. Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive members.

The August Architecture Billings Index (ABI) continued to indicate weak business conditions amongst architecture firms through August, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

New York state saw a recovery in manufacturing activity in September, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

CRU Principal Analyst Josh Spoores shares with SMU his analysis of the hot-rolled coil futures market.

Following significant recoveries in late August, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices tumbled this week.

It had been a relatively quiet and steady CME HRC futures market since the end of August. That was upended by Thursday’s news that instead of a two-week maintenance outage, Cleveland-Cliffs would hot idle the C-6 blast furnace at its Cleveland Works for an uncertain period of time. The CME October HRC contract, HRCV4, gained $22 per short ton (st) on the day to provisionally close at $744/st on Thursday. The first and second quarter futures strips of 2025 gained $25/st and $24/st to provisionally settle at $823/st and $829/st, respectively.

Steel mill lead times shortened for both sheet and plate products this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Negotiation rates have edged lower from our previous market check, a downward trend witnesses since July.

This month’s column on the markets could be a response to the question of last month, “Are the forward curve prices on Aug. 7 high enough to price in trade case risks?" The market’s answer has been a pretty resounding YES so far, I think.

Construction spending in the US in July was slightly lower than June. Despite the decline, it increased notably year on year (y/y).

Growth in the US economy continues to struggle in most districts. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report for August shows two-thirds of reporting districts flat or declining economic activity.

“The US economy, despite some near-term weakness I suggest in early 2025, is going to be strong," Dr. Anirban Basu said this week.

The Chicago Business Barometer edged up in August but remains in contraction territory, according to the latest release from Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

On Aug. 14, the chairman of the world’s largest steel producer, China’s Baowu Steel Group, had some alarming news. He told staff at the firm’s mid-year meeting that conditions in China are like a “harsh winter” that will be “longer, colder and more difficult to endure than expected.”

Current steel mill lead time averages are a few days longer than levels seen one month prior, but remain near historical lows for both sheet and plate products.

Both our Current and Future Indices are now up to multi-month highs, indicating continued optimism among steel buyers.

Steel buyers found mills slightly more willing to negotiate spot prices this week, according to our most recent survey data. Though this negotiation rate has ticked up vs. our previous market check, overall rates have been trending downward since July’s highs.

The July AIA ABI score has recovered nearly six points over the last two months following the near four-year low recorded in May

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in differing directions this week. Both indices have generally trended downward across 2024, but continue to indicate optimism among steel buyers.

The front end of CME hot-rolled (HR) coil steel futures contracts had drifted lower when this article was filed on Thursday afternoon. And the back end of 2024 had also come under pressure. Despite staging a late-month rally at the end of July back into the low $700s per short ton (st) range, the lead […]

Three out of four of our market survey respondents report that steel mills are open to negotiating new order prices this week, a slight decline compared to our previous market check.

Steel buyers continue to report short mill lead times for both sheet and plate products, according to SMU's latest canvass of the market. Lead times for hot-rolled and plate products marginally increased from our late July survey, likely due to limited restocking in anticipation of upcoming mill outages for scheduled maintenance.

This Premium analysis covers North American oil and natural gas prices, drilling rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts are an advanced indicator of demand for oil country tubular goods (OCTG), line pipe, and other steel products.