Category: US

For the first time in weeks, activity in the futures market broke out of the recent “front grinds lower” pattern to provide new insight into the dynamics of the steel industry.

Steel mill lead times remain short for all steel products tracked by SMU, according to our latest market survey. Service center and manufacturers continue to report short to normal lead times for sheet and plate products.

Steel buyers of hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized products found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, according to our most recent survey data. However, buyers of Galvalume and plate products said mills were less willing to talk price.

New York state manufacturers reported dismal business conditions in June. This is the seventh consecutive month of negative readings, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Trading activity for the CME HRC futures contract has been sporadic so far in June, with a few days seeing transacted volumes exceed 25,000 short tons (st), but overall activity remains muted. This follows a pattern that emerged over the course of May.

Interest rate stability and growing owner and developer confidence helped push the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) higher in May.

Let’s start by asking this: Were the proclamations that Nucor’s published index prices would drift lower with the reality of a bear market for flat rolled ultimately a bit premature with the benefit of hindsight?

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both rebounded sharply this week, according to our most recent survey data.

Movements in steel mill lead times were mixed this week, according to our latest steel buyers survey results. Service centers and manufacturers reported short to average production times, little changed from our last report.

Steel buyers found mills more willing to negotiate spot pricing this week on all products SMU tracks with the exception of Galvalume, according to our most recent survey data.

US manufacturing activity contracted in May for the second month in a row, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). After a brief expansion in March, ISM’s manufacturing index has since returned to contraction, where the manufacturing sector has been for 18 of the last 19 months. The ISM Manufacturing […]

Economic growth was modest, at best, from April through early May in most economic districts observed by the Federal Reserve.

The Chicago Business Barometer tumbled lower in May, now at the lowest measure recorded since May 2020 according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

Week over week, the futures curve saw minimal change.

The major steel-handling port in Burns Harbor, Ind., is getting substantial infrastructure upgrades.

Most metalformers expect economic activity to be level to down over the next three months, according to the May Business Conditions Report from the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA).

Hot rolled buyers found mills less willing to negotiate spot pricing this week, while other products SMU tracks were mixed, according to our most recent survey data.

Sideways and range-bound describes the US steel derivatives market over the past week, though the monthly picture shows a more notable decline in front-end flat prices. Week-over-week saw the June futures contract firm slightly, from $770 per short ton (st) to $780/st as of Thursday, May 23’s provisional close. However, the contract was down by […]

Lead times on most steel products tracked by SMU held steady or contracted this week compared to two weeks earlier, according to our latest market survey.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek indicated architecture firm billings remained soft through April

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both plummeted over 10 points this week, both hitting lows for 2024, according to our most recent survey data.

US housing starts ticked up through April following March’s dip, according to the latest data release from the US Census Bureau.

The last time we were together on April 18, the June hot-rolled coil (HRC) future was sitting around the $800 support level where the May future found a bottom in mid-February.

New York state continues to see deteriorating manufacturing business conditions through May, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both declined this week, with Current Sentiment tumbling over 10 points, according to our most recent survey data.

Hot rolled, cold rolled, and plate buyers said mills are more willing to talk price on spot orders this week, while the overall negotiation rate for products SMU surveys remained level, according to our most recent survey data.

Most steel products tracked by SMU saw lead times contract this week from two weeks earlier, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.

When we were asked to provide some additional commentary to SMU about the futures markets for flat rolled, our only reluctance to contribute was rooted merely in the fact that SMU (1) already offers an excellent array of authors on this topic and (2) a concern regarding what new ground could be covered that hasn’t already been discussed to death on this issue. Thankfully, however, Nucor has offered up something we can describe, without hyperbole, as simply revolutionary for spot pricing in flat rolled - a development that we simply could not resist commenting on with respect to its probable impacts on the futures market.

Construction spending in the US in March was basically steady from the previous month but showed notable year-on-year (y/y) growth.

“One thing we know for certain, however, is that when we write our next column, things will have certainly shaken loose.” – Daniel Doderer, April 4, 2024. Above is a good reminder that whenever someone is “certain” of anything, you should probably look at that line of thinking with a healthy dose of skepticism.