Category: US

SMU’s Buyers Sentiment Indices both fell this week, with current sentiment taking a large dive to begin the new year, according to our most recent survey data.

Trading slowed across the Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures curve in the final weeks of 2023, with prices drifting mostly sideways through the month of December.

Steel mill lead times pulled back across the board this week but are still said to be at healthy levels, according to SMU's market survey this week.

The percentage of steel buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing on the products SMU surveys was mixed this week.

An increase in residential construction brought total construction spending up by 0.4% in November, according to a report from the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). The uptick offsets a slowdown in public spending.

Domestic manufacturing activity receded for the 14th straight month, according to the latest Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI report.

We started 2023 with HRC spot pricing around $700 per ton and the third-month future (March ‘23) trading at $800/ton. That same future eventually settled at $1,059/ton - a $259/ton swing. Today, spot pricing is just shy of $1,100/ton for HRC, and the third-month future (March ‘24) settled at $1,091/ton. The clear takeaway: a lot can change over three months. And while future contracts are a valuable tool for hedging, they are a terrible predictor of price.

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reading from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek showed a slight uptick in November, but was still in negative territory.

Steel buying lead times remain mixed as we head into the last week of 2023, according to SMU's most recent survey data.

All of the products SMU surveys notched an increase in the percentage of buyers saying mills were willing to negotiate spot pricing, with the exception of cold rolled, according to our most recent survey data.

SMU’s Current Buyers Sentiment Index inched up this week, while the future index edged down, based on our most recent survey data.

US housing starts jumped in November on lower interest rates stimulating home buying, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

Mexican steel association Canacero has responded to a Dec. 13 letter from US senators, and disputes the claim of a “surge” of Mexican steel imports.

New York state saw a decline in manufacturing in December, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey.

Last week in Chicago, we hosted several metals companies for our bi-annual Metals Price Management Seminar (“MPMS”).

The US presidential elections will take place on Nov. 5, 2024.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) slipped in November due to a general decrease in slightly weaker commercial and institutional activity, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.

Activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted once again in November.

Oct. 26 was my previous Steel Market Update contribution. The night before, Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) announced they had reached a tentative agreement for a new labor contract.

In its Beige Book report released on Nov. 29, the Federal Reserve noted slower economic activity since October's report.

Sector fundamentals for US steel companies remain solid overall, according to ratings agency Fitch’s 2024 outlook report.

New orders for manufactured durable goods fell in the US in October.

US housing starts crept higher for a second consecutive month in October. Starts were lower, however than the same month last year, according to the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.

Increasing mortgage rates have caused builders to lose confidence in the market, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

European Aluminium, an association representing the entire European aluminum value chain, announced in a press release that it supports the European Commission's proposed 12th package of sanctions against Russia.

In the dynamic landscape of the steel futures market, a confluence of factors is shaping the current narrative.

Several past columns in SMU have included comments about the futures forward curve, using terms like contango and backwardation

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased in October thanks to stronger commercial activity, according to the latest Dodge Construction Network (DCN) data.

The LME aluminum three-month price was unchanged on the morning of Nov. 3 and was seen trading at $2,235 per tonne.

The American steel industry is the backbone of the US economy and produces the cleanest steel in the world.