SMU Data and Models
![Down Arrow](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/06/down.png)
SMU survey: Lead times slip for most sheet and plate products
Written by Brett Linton & Ethan Bernard
May 9, 2024
Most steel products tracked by SMU saw lead times contract this week from two weeks earlier, according to SMU’s most recent survey data.
Galvalume, however, bucked the trend, with lead times extending by 0.1 weeks to an average of 7.7 weeks.
While hot rolled lead times slipped 0.1 weeks to an average of 4.9 weeks, cold rolled had the largest contraction in lead times, decreasing 0.3 weeks from the last market check to an average of 7.2 weeks.
Table 1 below details current lead times.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/05/lead-times-t1-5-9-24-1024x426.png)
Survey results
This week, 16% of survey respondents thought lead times will be extending two months from now, 62% believed they will be flat, and 22% expected them to contract.
Here’s what respondents are saying:
“It feels like we’re already seeing some contraction. We expect that to continue, at least until import pricing is no longer reasonable.”
“Cannot get much shorter. Able to get hot roll quickly.”
“Mill order books are light. All the forward buying will come to an abrupt end shortly.”
“Summer slowdown/maintenance outages.”
“Coming into summer – usual expectation.”
“Again, buyers push prices hard in the next six weeks and then we rebound.”
Figure 1 below tracks lead times for each product over the past two years.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/05/lead-times-f1-5-9-24-1-1024x633.png)
3MMA lead times
Looking at the three-month moving averages (3MMA) of lead times can smooth out the variability seen in our biweekly readings.
On a 3MMA basis, lead times contracted slightly for all products SMU surveys: with hot rolled at 5.09 weeks, cold rolled at 7.48 weeks, galvanized at 7.38 weeks, Galvalume at 7.52 weeks, and plate at 5.65 weeks.
Figure 2 highlights how lead times have been trending over the past four years.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/05/lead-times-f2-5-9-24-1-1024x633.png)
Note: These lead times are based on the average from manufacturers and steel service centers participating in this week’s SMU market trends analysis survey. SMU measures lead times as the time it takes from when an order is placed with the mill to when it is processed and ready for shipping, not including delivery time to the buyer. Our lead times do not predict what any individual may get from any specific mill supplier. Look to your mill rep for actual lead times. To see an interactive history of our steel mill lead times data, visit our website. If you’d like to participate in our survey, contact us at info@steelmarketupdate.com.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/04/SMU_BL_headshot-V4-150x150.png)
Brett Linton
Read more from Brett Linton![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/02/SMU_EB_headshot.png.jpg-150x150.png)
Ethan Bernard
Read more from Ethan BernardLatest in SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Steelmaking raw material prices ease in July
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU price ranges: HR declines moderate. Are we near a bottom?
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Some SMU Key Market Indicators improve, others remain near historic lows
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]