Category: US

Both SMU Steel Buyers' Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory, indicating that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

Buyers participating in our first market survey of 2025 reported a slight decline in mill lead times compared to our last survey in mid-December. After rising moderately in early December, lead times edged lower through this week and are now only slightly above the lows seen back in July and November. Overall, production times have remained historically short since last summer, with minimal movement since then.

Improved growth in data center planning and warehousing projects helped the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rebound in December.

Steel buyers say mills remain open to negotiation on sheet and plate spot prices this week, slightly more so than in mid-December, according to our most recent survey results.

Steel prices didn't start the new year with a bang - but they didn't bust, either, according to SMU's first survey of 2025. On the sheet side, market participants generally predicted that prices should move higher this year on the coated trade petition and the potential for tariffs under President-elect Trump. But most buyer sources weren’t eager to load up given the uncertain timing and scope of the potential tariffs. They also cited increasing domestic capacity and modest demand.

“U.S. manufacturing activity contracted again in December, but at a slower rate compared to November,” according to Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Construction spending inched higher in November for a second straight month.

The December reading of 36.9 declined 3.3 points from the previous month to the lowest reading since May 2024.

Both of our Sentiment Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

In the last article written for SMU, we looked at the rallies that followed both the 2016 and 2022 presidential elections, as well as the moves in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

Steel mill production times have seen very little change since September, according to buyers participating in our latest market survey.

“Manufacturers are optimistic,” said Timothy R. Fiore, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Steel buyers of sheet and plate products say mills are still willing to bend on spot pricing this week, though not quite as much as they were two weeks prior, according to our most recent survey data.

We have seen very little change in sheet and plate prices across the past month.

Following a substantial recovery in November, business activity in New York state’s manufacturing sector held steady in December, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Steel prices have remained relatively stable in recent weeks, though they have generally trended downward since October.

Import arbitrations expressed via futures may become enticing as coil price spreads expand. The spread market in CME US hot-rolled coil (HRC) is currently navigating a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating post-election, leaving traders uncertain about the market's direction.

Vedoya said the proposed tariffs are "an irrational measure that would harm both their own industry and ours."

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) slid further in November as planning for data centers and warehouses continued to decline.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index slipped this week, while Future Sentiment remained flat, according to our most recent survey data.

Production times are marginally higher than those seen in recent weeks, now closer to levels witnessed throughout October.

Still, many businesses noted increased sensitivity to prices and quality among customers.

A high percentage of the steel buyers we polled this week continue to respond that mills are open to price negotiation for new spot orders. Rates have been high for the majority of the year.

Steel sheet prices remain at or near multi-month lows, while plate prices continue edging lower from their mid-2022 peak.

“We are under constant threat from nonmarket economies who evade our trade laws," SMA said.

US manufacturing activity contracted again in November for the eighth consecutive month.

The Chicago Business Barometer continues to indicate deteriorating business conditions in November, easing to a six-month low, according to Market News International (MNI) and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

SMU's price indices saw minor fluctuations on sheet products this week, while our plate and Galvalume indices held steady.

Following months of fluctuations, SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebounded this week, now at multi-month highs. Both of our Indices remain in positive territory and indicate that steel buyers are optimistic about the success of their businesses.

After experiencing a rally ahead of the 2024 election, the nearby part of CME HRC futures complex has softened as we approach year-end. Meanwhile, the forward positions (second half of 2025) have remained supported and largely unchanged.