Category: US

Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

After a hot start to June, the CME ferrous derivatives complex has cooled down.

Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.

Prices for steel sheet slipped this week despite Section 232 tariffs remaining at 50% and a US strike on nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend.

US housing starts tumbled in May to a five-year low, according to figures recently released by the US Census Bureau.

Could we see an abrupt shift now that oil prices have spiked higher? Will we see a rebound in the rig count? Will this create a snap-loading effect (think waterski rope), where the industry suddenly does a 180-degree turn? If so, will that bring with it increased demand for steel products used by the energy industry?

Architecture firms reported a modest improvement in billings through May, yet business conditions remained soft, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

Steel prices inched higher again this week across most of the sheet and plate products tracked by SMU.

However, companies are growing more optimistic about the future.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index sharply fell to one of the lowest levels recorded in five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment marginally improved.

Never a dull moment in today's HR futures market.

All five of the averages for sheet and plate mill lead times tracked by SMU extended moderately this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week reported that domestic mills are considerably less willing to talk price on sheet products than they were in recent weeks, but remain open to bargain on plate prices.

ArcelorMittal’s (AM) Hamilton location to be shuttered, wire production shifting to Montreal. 

Steel prices climbed for a second straight week across all five sheet and plate products tracked by SMU.

A fierce flat price rally started this week that saw the nearby months rally by over $120/ short tons, exceeding the contract highs seen in February ahead of the first batch of tariffs.

All districts reported "hesitancy and a cautious approach to business and household decisions,” according to the Beige Book.

Following eight consecutive weeks of declines, sheet and plate prices saw some upward movement this week in the wake of last Friday’s Section 232 tariff increase announcement. Gains varied by product.

The speed and scale of recent moves are reminders of just how sensitive HRC futures remain to structural shifts and sentiment cues.

May marks the third consecutive month US manufacturing activity declined, according to supply executives contributing to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)’s latest report.

The Chicago Business Barometer reports that decreases in new orders, order backlogs, and softer production pulled the index down by 4.1-points to 40.5, in May.

After reaching multi-month lows in mid-May, SMU’s Buyers’ Sentiment Indices modestly recovered in our latest survey.

The evolution of the U.S. HRC futures curve since my last update on April 17 tells a familiar story: fleeting optimism giving way to renewed caution.

Mill lead times shrunk this week for all of the sheet products tracked by SMU and held steady on plate, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.

Most steel buyers responding to our latest market survey report that domestic mills are willing to talk price to secure new orders. Mill negotiability has continued to rise across all sheet and plate products we track, now at some of the highest levels recorded since late 2024.

Sheet and plate prices marginally declined again this week for the second consecutive week, pausing the strong downward trend seen from April through early May.

Which way will the herd move?

For the third month in a row, architecture firms reported a reduction in billings through April, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index release.

Most sheet and plate prices edged lower again this week, albeit at a slower pace compared to the movements seen over the last seven weeks. Buyers remain cautious and hesitant to hold onto much inventory, citing lingering demand concerns, ongoing tariff uncertainty, and a potentially weakening scrap market in June.