Contributor: Brett Linton

US steel exports rose 10% from April to May but remained low compared to recent years. This came just one month after exports fell to the lowest level recorded in nearly five years.

The volume of raw steel produced by US mills inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). After steadily increasing in April and May, domestic mill output stabilized in early June and has remained historically strong since.

Heating and cooling equipment shipments grew from April to May, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI).

US oil and gas drilling activity continued to decline for the 11th consecutive week, while Canadian counts climbed for the sixth week in a row, according to the latest data from Baker Hughes.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.

Mill lead times for sheet products were steady to slightly longer this week compared to our late June market check, while plate lead times contracted, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.

Domestic mills are more open to talk price on new orders than they were in June, according to most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week. Negotiation rates have recovered from the early-June lull and are now just a few percentage points shy of the high levels seen late last year.

Sheet and plate prices slipped this week on so-so demand, sideways scrap prices, and chatter that certain mills were making unsolicited calls looking for tons.

Following one of the lowest levels seen in more than two years, US steel imports rebounded from April to May. However, trade remains low relative to recent years. Preliminary June license data suggests another decline, with licenses currently down 12% month over month (m/m).

Domestic steel mill output inched higher last week, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Raw production remains historically strong and has been growing steadily since April.

US raw steel output edged lower last week after hitting a multi-year high in mid-June, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

US housing starts tumbled in May to a five-year low, according to figures recently released by the US Census Bureau. Realtor.com suggests that builders are feeling pressured by high interest rates, rising material costs, and labor shortages, all of which are contributing to weakening sentiment.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined for the ninth-consecutive week in the US, while Canadian counts rose for the fourth straight week, according to Baker Hughes.

Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey. Although production times extended across the board in early June, sheet lead times remained near some of the shortest levels recorded since late 2023. Prior to June, sheet production times had shortened from early April through late May, with most products falling to lows not seen in over two years.

The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.

The premium galvanized coil carries over hot-rolled (HR) coil has narrowed further since our May update, shrinking for the third consecutive month. As of June 24, the spread between these two products is just $5 per short ton (st) above the lowest level recorded in almost two years.

Prices for steel sheet slipped this week despite Section 232 tariffs remaining at 50% and a US strike on nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend.

Global raw steel production rose 2% from April to May, slightly above average production levels seen in recent months, according to data recently released by the World Steel Association (worldsteel).

US steel mills have ramped up raw production since April, with weekly output steadily increasing in nearly every week since.

Oil and gas drilling activity declined in the US again this week the US, while Canadian counts improved, according to Baker Hughes.

According to our latest analysis, prices for four of the seven steelmaking raw materials we track declined from May to June. Collectively, these materials declined 3% month over month (m/m) and are down 9% compared to three months ago.

Architecture firms reported a modest improvement in billings through May, yet business conditions remained soft, according to the latest Architecture Billings Index (ABI) release from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek.

Earlier this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to imports and evolving market events.

Steel prices inched higher again this week across most of the sheet and plate products tracked by SMU.

After climbing to a seven-month high in March, heating and cooling equipment shipments edged lower in April, according to the latest data released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments of water heaters, air conditioner/heat pumps, and warm-air furnaces all declined month over month (m/m) but remain strong relative to the past three years.

Domestic mills continue to produce record volumes of steel, according to AISI's latest figures.

In this Premium analysis we examine North American oil and natural gas prices, drill rig activity, and crude oil stock levels. Trends in energy prices and rig counts serve as leading indicators for oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe demand.

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposing directions this week. Our Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index sharply fell to one of the lowest levels recorded in five years, while Future Buyers’ Sentiment marginally improved.

All five of the averages for sheet and plate mill lead times tracked by SMU extended moderately this week, according to buyers responding to our latest market survey.