By CRU Economist Anissa Chabib, from CRU’s Economic Outlook On May 8, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the official U.S. unemployment data for April. Unemployment increased to 14.7 percent from 4.4 percent in March. This is the highest rate and the largest month-on-month increase in the history of the series, which was created […]
We had to change the way we calculate the adjusted data, which will also change how we derive our analysis. Previously, we adjusted the data to mirror the exact mix of service centers that responded to the previous month’s survey. We saw a decrease in participation in the March survey, which we can understand given […]
We are in the middle of a black swan event—an event that is expected but unexpected, said Chris Kuehl, managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence during Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat Webinar. “Viral threats are not new and have been frequent in the past few decades, but we don’t know from year to year how they […]
We are in the middle of a black swan event—an event that is expected but unexpected, said Chris Kuehl, managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence during Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat Webinar. “Viral threats are not new and have been frequent in the past few decades, but we don’t know from year to year how they […]
Like producers and distributors of prime steel, most sellers of nonprime or secondary steel have been hard hit by the virus. Yet secondary material is still available from the mills even though their production is way down. Some distributors are doing surprisingly well, depending on their customer base and location, while others are struggling. Secondary […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Steel Metallics Monitor The CRU metallics price indicator (CRUmpi) moved higher by 11.5 percent m/m to 202.4 in May. Supply constraints caused by the Covid-19 pandemic combined with either sustained or recovering scrap demand to lift prices across most of the globe, although pig iron demand was […]
John Anton is apologetic that his forecast for the steel market is so gloomy, “but realism outweighs the optimism,” he tells Steel Market Update. The Associate Director of Pricing and Purchasing at IHS Markit, Anton will be the guest speaker during the next SMU Community Chat webinar, beginning at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May […]
John Anton is apologetic that his forecast for the steel market is so gloomy, “but realism outweighs the optimism,” he tells Steel Market Update. The Associate Director of Pricing and Purchasing at IHS Markit, Anton will be the guest speaker during the next SMU Community Chat webinar, beginning at 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, May […]
Cleveland-Cliffs expects operations to normalize during the second quarter as end-markets begin recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. “Although the pandemic effect led to automotive plant shutdowns over the past six weeks, the timing and pace of production restarts as well as consumer sales data have both exceeded our expectations,” said Cliffs’ Chairman, President and CEO […]
A new survey of construction firms by the Associated General Contractors of America shows that two-thirds of firms have reported project cancellations or delays due to concerns about the pandemic or future funding. Fewer construction projects equal more job losses; 43 percent of firms surveyed reported staff cuts between March and May. Construction employment fell […]
Bank of America is forecasting a slow recovery from the coronavirus crisis, one that will take years not just months, said Metals and Mining Analyst Timna Tanners, who was the featured guest speaker during Steel Market Update’s Community Chat on Wednesday. Bank of America economists anticipate a global recession in the second and third quarters. […]
International steelmaker ArcelorMittal was hit particularly hard by the pandemic, dealing with closures and economic recessions across the globe. The company reported a loss of $1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2020 and expects the remainder of the year to be challenging. “There are still too many uncertainties to accurately predict what the rest […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley, from CRU’s Long Products Monitor U.S. domestic long product prices were forced lower across the board as demand weakness caused by the Covid-19 pandemic combined with a substantial m/m decline in scrap prices. Construction activity in many states was either curtailed or prohibited entirely as local governments took measures […]
The Dodge Momentum Index fell 6.0 percent in April to 135.9. The monthly index by Dodge Data & Analytics measures the first report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending by a full year. The commercial component of the index fell 7.6 percent, while the institutional component slid […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: As the coronavirus lockdown enters its third month, some states are starting to reopen their economies. As of this writing, 23 states were partially reopening May 1. Every state is different, of course, and no state has reopened […]
Having lived through the difficult month of April, steel buyers remain pessimistic about current business conditions, but more hopeful about the future. Steel Market Update asked steel buyers how they view their company’s current prospects for success, as well as their chances for success three to six months in the future. The Current Sentiment reading […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen and CRU Economist Ippolito Tarabini, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook Lockdowns continued into April. They resulted in a fall in activity, particularly in the hospitality, entertainment and travel sectors. Using estimates of the loss of output by sector, we find that one month of lockdown lowers the […]
U.S. Steel remains focused on its acquisition of Big River Steel even as the COVID-19 crisis forces the idling of U.S Steel operations and layoffs of employees. The success of U.S. Steel depends on having the best of integrated and EAF steelmaking, said the company during its first-quarter earnings call. “Make no mistake, our ‘best […]
The ISM Report on Business dropped 7.6 percentage points to a PMI reading of 41.5 in April, indicating a sharp contraction of economic activity in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the overall economy contracted for the first time in 131 consecutive months. “Comments from the panel were strongly negative (three negative comments for every one positive […]
Ken Simonson, self-proclaimed optimist and chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, offered a fairly pessimistic forecast for the construction sector during Wednesday’s SMU Community Chat. Real GDP fell 4.8 percent in the first quarter due to the coronavirus shutdowns, he said, the worst quarterly contraction since 2008. “I consider myself an incurable […]
A strong beginning to the first quarter in Mexico supported shipments for Ternium S.A. as operations were locked down in South America due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company expects shipments to decrease about 30 percent in the second quarter and increase going forward in the second half of the year. “We don’t see a […]
Steps to contain the spread of COVID-19 have dealt a serious blow to construction, which is the largest market for steel. Construction will be the focus of this week’s SMU Community Chat. Two out of three construction executives responding to an April 20-23 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America reported that they are […]
Nucor Corp.’s sales and shipments saw healthy increases in the first quarter, prior to the coronavirus crisis. The first quarter was still a profitable one for the steelmaker, but the company is expecting a loss in the second quarter as the economy struggles with the government restrictions to stop the spead of COVID-19. Nucor reported […]
COVID-19-related shutdowns and project cancellations caused construction employment in March to decline in 99 out of 348 metro areas year-over-year, said the Associated General Contractors of America in an analysis of government data. In an April 20-23 survey conducted by AGC, 68 percent of construction firms reported projects canceled or delayed in the past two […]
Steps to contain the spread of COVID-19 have dealt a serious blow to construction, which is the largest market for steel. Construction will be the focus of this week’s SMU Community Chat. Two out of three construction executives responding to an April 20-23 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America reported that they are […]
John Packard is taking some time off. May could be a pivotal month for the U.S. economy and the steel industry. No reasonable person believes we will have the virus crisis behind us, but we should at least have more clarity on what lies ahead. States, to one degree or another, are loosening their restrictions […]
The U.S. trucking industry could be facing the worst second quarter on record, says FTR after analysis of the latest Trucking Conditions Index. Steep drops in freight volume and declining utilization rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic will create challenging conditions through this year and into next. “Although trucking conditions might prove to be comparable […]
John Packard is taking some time off… We hope you are benefiting from our series of SMU Community Chats. The idea is to help us all feel connected by getting together once a week for a short visit with an industry expert—and in a way with each other. It’s a chance to learn something valuable […]
Companies are being affected to varying degrees by the coronavirus depending on their market and geography, so it’s no surprise their opinions range widely on how long it will take business to return to pre-COVID levels. Some hope for activity to rebound as soon as this summer, while others fear it won’t be until next […]
What comes first, the chicken or the egg? We all want our businesses to return to “normal.” We want all employees back to work, getting paychecks, buying products, and living happy, healthy lives. On Wednesday, we hosted one of our SMU Community Chat Webinars. Our featured speaker was Bernard Swiecki of the Center for Automotive […]