By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group The LME cash price for high grade aluminum continues to give ground, with prices at $2,715 per metric ton versus $2,861 per ton last week. There is still a lot of gloom and doom out there. Fear factor over demand is dominating price discovery Here are a few of […]
Total mill shipments of steel products recovered in March following repeated declines at the start the year. March’s mill shipments totaled 8.342 million tons, a 9% increase from February’s 7.655 million tons. Apparent supply also surged in March, up 12.9% versus the prior month, and expanding for the first time in three months. This analysis is based […]
US steel exports jumped 16% in March to 843,000 net tons, now the highest monthly level seen since June 2018, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. On a 12-month moving average, March exports continue to hold onto a 3-year record high at 741,000 tons per month. Total March exports are 7% higher than levels seen […]
The US will for one year lift Section 232 tariffs from Ukrainian steel, the Commerce Department said. The move is necessary to support Ukraine in its war against Russia and because steel plays an outsized role in the Ukrainian economy, Commerce said in a press release on Monday, May 9. Case in point: Steel employs […]
ArcelorMittal predicts that global steel consumption will “contract slightly” in 2022, a departure from prior forecasts of modest growth. The Luxembourg-based steelmaker now expects global consumption to contract by as much as 1% this year. It had previously forecast of global steel consumption growth of as much as 1%. “Market conditions are currently strong although […]
For the first four months of this year, the US and global economies have endured one shock after another. It’s hard to know what to expect whether you are running a business, regulating an industry, or feeding a family. This past week, the government announced that the US economy shrank in the first quarter at […]
Housing’s share of the economy edged higher at the start of 2022 due in part to a surprise drop in GDP growth. For the first quarter of 2022, overall GDP growth declined at a 1.4% annual rate, driven by increased inventories and a jump in imports, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ analysis […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the aluminum market has fixated on potential sanctions on Russia’s 3+ million metric tons of annual exports. So far, those sanction have not materialized. Several major players have announced their intention to suspend new business with Russia. Emphasis on “new business.” […]
US Steel is no longer importing pig iron from Ukraine and Russia for its Big River Steel Works – now the official name of its Osceola, Ark., electric arc furnace (EAF) sheet mill. The Pittsburgh-based steelmaker has also mostly weaned its integrated steel mill in Košice, Slovakia, off Russian raw materials as well, they said. […]
The US economy shrank in the first quarter of 2022 with gross domestic production declining at a 1.4% annualized pace. The drop was a sharp reversal from an annual growth rate of 6.9% from October through December, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The initial estimate for Q1 was the […]
Total mill shipments of steel products fell for the second straight month in February to 7.655 million tons, a 6.1% decline from January’s 8.153 million tons. Apparent supply also fell in February, down 12.1% versus the prior month, falling repeatedly and unable to maintain the momentum seen during the final quarter of 2021. This analysis is based […]
North American auto assemblies grew by 18.1% in March, expanding for the third straight month despite ongoing supply hurdles. Though North American production has improved since last December, March’s recovery was just 1% higher year on year. And it’s still 13.5% below the pre-pandemic period of March 2019. At the onset of 2022, the global auto […]
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. chairman, president and CEO Lourenco Goncalves blasted low US tariffs on Russian pig iron given sharply higher ones on steel. The pig iron tariff – $1.11 per metric ton, or $1 per short ton – is too little to stop companies, notably electric-arc furnace (EAF) sheet mills, from importing raw material from Russia, […]
US apparent steel supply levels slipped 11% from January to February, down 997,000 net tons to 8.37 million tons, according to the latest US Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Recall that just last September, the market saw the highest monthly supply level in over six years (9.92 million tons). […]
President Biden on Friday signed two pieces of trade legislation that sailed through Congress: the “Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act” (HR 6968), which prohibits imports of oil, gas and other energy products from Russia, and “Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act” (HR 7108), which imposes higher “Column 2” tariffs on imports […]
By CRU Senior Coal Analyst Dmitry Popov, and Senior Analyst Banmeet Khurmi, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Monitor, April 7 Among the latest sanctions against Russia, the EU is planning to introduce a full import ban of Russian coal from August 2022. In this Insight, we look at the EU’s reliance on Russia for thermal […]
SMU contributor Tim Stevenson is a partner at Metal Edge Partners, a firm engaged in Risk Management and Strategic Advisory. In this role, he and his firm design and execute risk management strategies for clients along with providing process and analytical support. In Tim’s previous role, he was a Director at Cargill Risk Management, and […]
US steel exports increased 5% in February to 727,000 net tons, following a 6% rise in January, according to the latest US Department of Commerce data. The 12-month moving average through February has now reached a 3-year high. February exports are 7% higher than levels seen one year ago. As shown in the graph below, […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook The invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces has continued to rock commodity and financial markets. We expect the fallout from the invasion to reduce world growth this year and next, through three main channels: Energy prices. Russia is a major producer and exporter of […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Erik Hedborg, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, April 5. Iron ore has risen again in the past week as lockdowns in China have fuelled hopes of new stimulus measures, resulting in an overall bullish sentiment last week, ahead of the Chinese Qingming holiday (Sunday–Tuesday). Iron ore has now returned to […]
By Greg Wittbecker, Advisor, CRU Group Since the onslaught of the war in Ukraine last month, the aluminum market has been fixated on the timing and severity of economic sanctions on the Russian aluminum sector. This attention is warranted given the importance of Russian primary aluminum in global trade. As discussed in prior columns, Russia […]
The US economy closed out 2021 by expanding at an annual pace of 6.9% from October through December, a slight downgrade from previous estimates, according to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This agency’s third and final review showed the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) up 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the […]
Too much went on last week to limit this week’s column to a single issue. The Ukraine war touches everything these days, including almost all recent developments on the trade front. It was a week that, to paraphrase Winston Churchill, was “not entirely uneventful.” First, the NATO summit meeting took on issues that have divided Europe […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook, March 21 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent shockwaves through the world economy. What does war mean for the world economy? We outlined three scenarios in terms of severity of impact from the war itself, but most crucially from sanctions and the response to those […]
The U.S.-UK agreement to ease Section 232 tariffs was lauded by some industry groups and union representatives for promoting fair trade. But others questioned whether certain unusual provisions in the deal might cause trouble. And still others said the deal didn’t do enough to remove tariffs from a close U.S. ally. Recall that on Tuesday the United States […]
The United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to a deal to ease Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. The contours of the agreement match what Steel Market Update reported earlier in the day on Tuesday, March 22. “Today’s historic deal is a testament to that ambitious goal and will benefit America’s steel […]
The Commerce Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) are expected to announce an agreement with the United Kingdom to ease Section 232 tariffs on its steel exports, according to sources familiar with the matter. The deal, slated to go into effect on June 1, is expected to be announced at approximately […]
By CRU Research Analyst Aaron Kearney-Keaveny, from CRU’s Steelmaking Raw Materials Monitor, March 22 In the past week, the iron ore price has been influenced by two notable shocks, a supply shock from lost CIS volumes, which has been occurring since the invasion, and a demand shock from China after lockdowns created bearish sentiments. Improving […]
The war in Ukraine continues to impact the volatility in steel markets around the world. Here in the United States, we have seen steel buyers coming off the sidelines as they look to protect themselves against the possibility of being short steel. This despite flat-rolled steel inventories being at 2.72 months’ supply at the end […]
North American auto assemblies grew by 8.0% in February, expanding for the second straight month despite ongoing supply hurdles. Though last month’s production was 2.2% higher year on year, it was 21.1% below the same pre-pandemic period in 2020. Despite February’s production gains, the industry was met with strong supply-related headwinds. The ongoing supply-chain and […]