The first graphic depicted below shows published Chinese data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and consumer prices through Q4 2014. The GDP and industrial production portions of this graph are three month moving averages. GDP grew 7.3 percent y/y in both the 3rd and 4th quarters and has been declining since Q1 2010. […]
The monthly value of the Federal Reserve Broad Index value of the US $ against our major trading partners has continued to strengthen and in January reached 92.44 after breaking 90 in December for the first time since July 2009. The monthly BI is a “Real” inflation adjusted index. The Fed also reports a daily […]
The Coface Group, a worldwide leader in credit insurance, publishes country risk assessments for 160 countries, based on its unique knowledge of company payment behavior and on the expertise of 350 underwriters located close to clients and their debtors. The following a reprint of their risk outlook for 2015. Laborious Global Recovery, Subject to Multiple […]
The following article on the futures market was written by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC and our instructor for Managing Price Risk I and II workshops. Financial Markets: Too bad we’re not all money managers as life would be pretty easy – just keep your customer long the market, sit back, and enjoy […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of December 2014 was 10,020,704 net tons, the sixth month in 2014 to be above the 10 million ton mark. Steel Market Update calculates our apparent steel supply figure by combining total domestic steel shipments with finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. December supply represents […]
In the twelve months of 2014, ferrous scrap exports totaled 15,308,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 17.1 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of December scrap exports were 1,056,570 tonnes, down 21.5 percent from November. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average (3MMA) has been declining slightly for […]
January steel exports from China in rose to an all-time monthly record of 10.29 million tons, surprising analysts who were expecting reduced shipments this month. Steel shipments were expected to fall after China canceled the export tax rebate for Boron-added steel on January 1. Analysts predicted steel export volume would drop as much 30 percent […]
Last month we began to report on domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market in one single report to be able to compare side by side demand and the degree to which imports have absorbed that demand. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by […]
The American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) reports that U.S. steel exports declined 5 percent year over year in 2014. Exports fell 2.6 percent in the last month of the year with a drop in NAFTA exports accounting for most of the November to December decline. AIIS statistics and commentary follows: Falls Church, VA. February […]
EUROFER, the European Steel Association, says high levels of steel imports into the European market are “distorting traditional steel trade flows.” Steel imports into the European Union (EU) rose by more than 14 percent. EU steel use grew hesitantly in the second half of 2014, rising just 3.3 percent in 2014. “Weak business conditions in […]
The Institute of Supply Management released their January report on February 2nd. An explanation of this data set is given at the end of this piece. After the October surprise on the upside, the index slid back once again from 55.1 in December to 53.5 in January. The three month moving average has declined for […]
According to The TEX Report, Japan will decrease its shipment of hot rolled coil to South Korea beginning in February. Orders from South Korea for February shipments of HRC have dropped, in some cases by nearly half, due to weakened demand for OCTG in the U.S. Last year Japan exported 2,045,000 tonnes (2,254,188 net tons) […]
Steel Market Update thought it might be worthwhile to pick out some of the comments made by Steel Dynamics CEO Mark Millett during his earnings conference call with analysts late last week. We have focused on comments made about foreign steel, scrap, energy markets and the new Columbus facility. Each of the comments made are […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the first estimate of Q4 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts on Friday. The annualized growth rate in the 4th Q disappointed economic pundits by coming in at 2.64 percent after increasing by almost 5.0 percent in Q3. GDP is measured and reported in […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Steel Dynamics reported a record setting year and fourth quarter 2014. Steel shipments for the quarter were up 51 percent to 2.3 million tons from 1.5 million tons in Q3 2013. Steel fabrication had operating income of $22 million following a loss of $122,000 a year ago. For the full-year 2014 steel shipments totaled 7.4 […]
The fall in hot rolled futures prices seems to have slowed with the CRU down only $6/ton this week compared to an $18/ton drop the week prior. The second half of the year seems to have stabilized with trades being done at $570-575/ton for Q3 and Q4. The near term remains softer with bids retreating […]
Steel imports continue to flood U.S. shores and were a priority issue for CEOs during earnings calls this month. Low cost imports are creating competition for market share as well as depressing prices in the carbon steel spot market. Nucor CEO John Ferriola summed up the current market condition: “The other major headwind is from […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of December 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in December were 86,850,000 metric tons, an increase of 28.9 percent from the previous month and an increase of 18.4 percent […]
Turmoil continues in the global currency markets as the European Central Bank announced a quantitative easing program last week, S&P downgraded Russian debt to junk status yesterday, the Greek national election on Sunday will result in a strong resistance to EU mandated austerity programs and the Swiss removed the currency cap vs the Euro last […]
AK Steel CEO, James Wainscott, spoke to analysts this morning regarding AK Steel 4th Quarter and calendar year 2014 earnings. We have a separate article which speaks to their earnings. What we have done is to point on some of the highlights of the call from our perspective: AK Steel did a major reline of […]
The Chinese steel industry exported 70,823,201 metric tons (780,691,000 net tons) of steel products during calendar year 2014 according to the Chinese Customs Service. The largest exporting segment was sheet and plate where the Chinese steel mills shipped 32,791,085 metric tons (36,146,000 net tons) to countries outside of China. According to Chuck Bradford, of Bradford […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 106.51 for December a decline of 0.1 percent from November. The three month moving average (3MMA) was 106.13 which was the highest value ever and the seventh straight month where the growth of the 3MMA exceeded […]
The following article comes to us from one of our Asian scrap sources, Damon Sun of Daido International. The Asian scrap market is a bit quiet and continued slow downtrend as scrap metal pricing tries to find parity with iron ore. A rough calculation of scrap to iron ore is a ratio of 3.5 to […]
This is another article which generally goes strictly to our Premium level members. Steel Market Update looks at data in a number of different ways. We look at imports on a weekly basis and report on the trends for license data, we look at monthly data and how it relates to the prior month and […]
In the first eleven months of 2014, scrap exports totaled 14,251,000 tonnes (metric tons), down by 15.7 percent from the same period in 2013. In the single month of November exports were 1,347,000 tonnes, almost unchanged from October. Figure 1 shows that the three month moving average has been declining slightly for the last seven […]
With the higher value of the U.S. dollar versus other steel trading nation’s currencies, we are seeing exports of steel in November as down slightly over October. November steel exports totaled 953,828 net tons (865,299 metric tons), down 5.6 percent over October but up 1.6 percent from November 2013 (all products). Here is a breakdown […]
Apparent steel supply for the month of November 2014 is 9,637,349 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. November supply represents a 1,044,666 ton or 12.2 percent increase compared to the same month one year ago. This is primarily […]
I thought the “Letter to the Editor” which we shared earlier in this issue was quite telling. The New Year is shaping up to be different than the past couple of years. With the drop in input costs and the weak global steel market (and strong U.S. dollar) 2015 could end up being a very […]
Low scrap prices and declining exports took a toll on earnings results for Schnitzer Steel Industries. Export selling prices for ferrous scrap declined by $80 per ton, or 20 percent, while domestic prices dropped $60 per ton, or 15 percent. The declines were the steepest seen by Schnitzer since 2012. The company reported a net […]