The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) and financial futures markets was written by Andre and Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: The bearishness was so thick 1-2 months ago you could cut it with a knife! The steel futures were getting crushed, […]
As we discussed earlier this week, higher international prices for iron ore, coking coal, pig iron and steel are helping take ferrous scrap export prices higher. SMU had lunch with one of our scrap/pig iron experts who advised that 80/20 scrap export prices may have reached $280 per metric ton delivered. At the same time, […]
Steel buyers and steel mill sellers are beginning to come to the same conclusion, the steel mills have the momentum and flat rolled steel prices are beginning to rise. What may be surprising steel buyers, especially those who do not read publications like Steel Market Update, is the pace and the strength of the market […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) ferrous scrap sources advised us over the weekend that strength in the Ohio Valley, as well as in the export markets, has led to ferrous scrap prices trading higher than originally thought. Talks continue in many of the regions of the country which have not yet completed scrap pricing negotiations for […]
I have had a number of conversations with steel mills and steel buyers regarding when the next flat rolled steel price increase would be announced by the domestic mills? My opinion is the mills will use the new ferrous scrap settlement prices combined with stronger order books as the reasons for going out after perhaps […]
All eyes this week will be on the scrap dealers and their steel mill customers as they haggle over where ferrous scrap prices will trade for the month of November. The opinion of many in the steel industry is that as scrap prices increase, it will both support the flat rolled steel price announcements already […]
Steel Market Update has been working on developing new sources to complement some of our original sources out of China. The following information is part of a report we receive once per week from two steel trading companies located in Asia and actively involved with the Chinese steel industry. The first note is from one […]
Steel Market Update scrap sources are advising us to expect ferrous scrap prices have bottomed and will increase once the November negotiations get underway next week with the domestic steel mills. We are hearing scrap prices should increase by a minimum of $10 per gross ton and some items could go up by as much […]
Steel Dynamics reported higher flat rolled prices resulted in an 11 percent increase in earnings in the third quarter. Net earnings were $284 million on net sales of $2.1 billion. Adjusted net income, including a $5 million litigation settlement charge, was $157 million for the quarter. SDI steel production was at 85 percent capacity in […]
The conversation has begun regarding when flat rolled steel prices will end their slide and reverse course. Flat rolled steel prices have been in a steep decline since mid-June 2016 when benchmark hot rolled prices peaked at $635 per ton ($31.75/cwt, SMU index average) FOB domestic mill. Since then steel prices have retreated $145 per […]
Steel Market Update ferrous scrap sources advised us over the weekend that scrap negotiations have wrapped up between the dealers and the domestic mills and that steel mills, once again, have walked away the winners as scrap prices dropped across the country. However, the weakest areas are those furthest away from the east coast where […]
Hot rolled coils settled September on the CME at $542 per ton while Platts ($539 average) and SMU ($530 average) saw market prices as being weaker. The SMU Price Momentum Index pointed toward lower prices throughout the month and ended the month suggesting prices will continue to slide as we move into the month of […]
Market sources are advising Steel Market Update to expect lower ferrous scrap prices in October. We are hearing the expectation by the dealers is for prices to drop anywhere from $15 to $40 per ton with most believing the adjustments will be in the $20 per ton range for obsolete grades and $30 per ton […]
This area of the Steel Market Update newsletter is reserved for me to be able to provide my thoughts/opinions on a variety of subjects and our readers clearly know where these comments are coming from. I have been asked on a number of occasions to comment on “rumors” of a domestic mill flat rolled price […]
Steel Dynamics expects stronger profits in third quarter due to meaningful metal spread expansion. In the company’s third quarter guidance, SDI said higher steel pricing in Q3 will more than offset higher scrap prices, however, improved margins will be impacted by lower steel shipments across the product platform. Higher earnings for third quarter are driven […]
Scrap prices surprised scrap dealers and have deteriorated more than what was expected going into September negotiations with the domestic steel mills. Here is how one of the national scrap companies portrayed the tone of the negotiations: “As you can imagine, it’s been a hectic time since the return from the holiday last week. As […]
When speaking to one of the main ferrous scrap analysts in the industry our newsletter was paid a compliment when I asked if the scrap community was aware of our newsletter. I was told, “They do already. Many of them have a lot of confidence in your reports. They refer to it more often then […]
SMU scrap sources advised ferrous scrap prices have settled in Detroit with prime grades (Busheling and bundles) moving lower by $30 per gross ton and shredded scrap by $20 per gross ton. Dealers had been hoping that a slower flow of feeder stock into the yards coupled with stronger buying by long products mills might […]
Ferrous scrap prices drifting lower by as much as $30 per gross ton (Detroit) on primes and $20 (Detroit) on shred will put some pressure on flat rolled steel spot prices in the coming weeks. Not all of the regions have settled prices and the dealers are resisting going down as much as what was […]
The prices for flat rolled steel have dropped over the past few weeks which is creating a situation where the domestic steel mills want to recoup a portion (or all) of the reductions by negotiating lower ferrous scrap pricing. The mills are asking for $20 per gross ton across the board (HMS, shred, prime grades) […]
SMU Sources are advising us that obsolete grades of ferrous scrap are trading sideways (prices remaining the same as last month) while prime grades move lower by $10 to $15 per gross ton in the Chicago, Ohio Valley, Detroit and Indiana markets. Prior to negotiations beginning, the expectation was for obsolete grades to remain intact […]
Initial reports coming out of the financial community are suggesting ferrous scrap prices could be down $5 to $15 per ton once the August negotiations between the steel mills and their suppliers get under way. The expectation that the prime grades will be hit after spending a couple of months moving sideways. However, not all […]
Steel Dynamics announced second quarter 2016 net income of $142 million on net sales of $2.0 billion. In comparison, net sales in Q1 totaled $1.7 billion with net income of $63 million and year ago sales were $2.0 billion with adjusted net income of $53 million. A decline in imports of flat rolled steel and […]
As reported last week, obsolete grades of ferrous scrap came under price pressure as negotiations concluded for July deliveries. Prime grades, however, saw prices move sideways as the spread between shredded scrap and primes increased. The product that saw the most movement was shredded due to excessive inventories and little movement on the export front […]
The following article is by contributing writer Damon Sun of Daido International. Several key elements has happened in the last few weeks in the ferrous markets in Asia: 1) China Customs Bureau has started inspections for alloy content in the export of billets (square bars). The export tax rebate (9%) is applicable only to alloy […]
There have been a number of articles written recently regarding the move by the Chinese government to remove some of the tax incentives in the form of rebates to the Chinese steel producers who export certain steel products. Any move to remove export tax rebates on steel is seen as a positive by the rest […]
We purposely did not begin this article on where our sources are seeing ferrous scrap prices with an attention grabbing headline as we think readers would be confused. The confusion comes from the pressure the domestic steel mills are expected to put on obsolete grades, like shredded scrap and HMS (heavy melt scrap). Those of […]
While in New York City this past week Steel Market Update was asked if the spread between ferrous scrap prices and that of hot rolled coil was at historical highs? We were also asked if the spread between hot rolled and cold rolled/coated base prices were also at historical highs. We asked SMU contributing writer […]
Here are some of the comments made to SMU over the past few days both in New York City and upon our return to our offices. Regarding scrap prices, one of our sources was telling us that the domestic steel mills are making a mistake by attempting to push ferrous scrap prices lower, especially when […]
Over the past week Steel Market Update has been of the opinion that flat rolled steel prices may be reaching levels where a “pause” may be appropriate. Our SMU Price Momentum Indicator has been pointing toward Higher flat rolled steel prices since December 11, 2015 (6 months). Many of the reasons which caused Steel Market […]