Buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel continue to remain optimistic about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment (our Current Sentiment Index). On a single data point our Current Sentiment Index was down -1 point from the beginning of May. However, we prefer to use the three month moving average […]
The following analysis was done by Peter Wright who writes a number of analytical articles for Steel Market Update. The energy markets are key markets for steel so it is important for our readers to understand oil and gas prices as well as the tubular products associated with drilling and transportation of oil and gas. […]
Today, the Department of Commerce announced its affirmative final determinations in the AD investigations of imports of certain cold-rolled steel flat products (cold-rolled steel) from China and Japan, and CVD investigation of imports of cold-rolled steel from China. Commerce determined imports of cold-rolled steel from China and Japan have been sold in the U.S. at […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through March 2016 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
“U.S. Steel Sinks as Another Wave of Cheap Imports Predicted” was the headline in Bloomberg on Friday morning. The article cites Axiom Capital Research analyst Gordon Johnson who wrote to his clients, “A boat load of imports are likely on the way.” This opinion permeates the financial community and the pessimism is, in our opinion, […]
US Steel has spearheaded an attempt to exclude all Chinese steel products from the U.S. market. But as is usually the case with drastic actions, there are a number of opponents to the move. Companies that use foreign steel in their products have asked the U.S. International Trade Commission to throw the complaint out. Steel […]
On May 17, 2016, the Department of Commerce is scheduled to announce its final determinations in the AD investigations of imports of certain cold-rolled steel flat products from China and Japan and CVD investigation of imports of certain cold-rolled steel flat products from China. The investigations cover certain cold-rolled, flat-rolled, steel products, neither clad, plated, […]
The May 12 MID-SHIP Report indicated the freight market took a downward turn last week. Capesize vessels hauling iron ore from West Australia to China dropped to $3.60 per tonne from a recent high of $4.50 per ton. Panamax, Handysize and Supermax also slid downward during the week. Said MID-SHIP in a tongue twisting turn […]
If things weren’t tight enough there have been a couple of accidents at steel mills, one in the United States (North Star BlueScope) and one in Brazil (CSN), which are impacting the domestic flat rolled steel order books. CSN (Brazil) Affecting Galvanized Markets About two weeks ago, CSN in Brazil had a breakout with their […]
If things weren’t tight enough there have been a couple of accidents at steel mills, one in the United States (North Star BlueScope) and one in Brazil (CSN), which are impacting the domestic flat rolled steel order books. CSN (Brazil) Affecting Galvanized Markets About two weeks ago, CSN in Brazil had a breakout with their […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of March 2016 was 8,716,178 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports and subtracting total US steel exports. March apparent […]
Last week SMU asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire about when they expected a break in the current flat rolled steel pricing cycle and for prices to begin heading lower. There was no consensus as 50 percent of those responding felt the change would occur prior to the 4th Quarter […]
Rising stockpiles of iron ore in China have sent iron ore futures plummeting in the past week. A frenzy of speculation had pushed benchmark prices for ore to a 15 month high last month. Prices have fallen 22 percent since the peak of +$70 on April 21. This morning The Steel Index reported 62% Fe […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter from an executive associated with the trading industry: I enjoyed reading your article on whether ‘ 2016 will end up being another 2004 and 2008 and would like to add these observations: 1. In 2008 the economies all over the world were overheating ( not only in the […]
Licensed data for April was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on May 3rd. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. Total rolled product licensed imports in the single month of April were […]
Experienced steel people are beginning to look at what is happening now and comparing it against 2004 and 2008. Both of those years saw prices double (or more) as demand and supply were out of balance. A trading company executive sent SMU the following note: “Is it just me or is this feeling like 2004 […]
There have been many comments made in the press recently regarding the opinions of analysts and consultants as to how long the current flat rolled price environment will last.The Pittsburgh Post published an article by Len Boselovic entitled: “Heard off the Street: Analysts: steel price hike may not last.” This article, which quotes one of […]
I had a long conversation with a service center this afternoon regarding the steepness of the rise in flat rolled prices out of the domestic mills. This buyer was frustrated with the pace of the increases and the unnecessary (in his opinion) tension the increases have caused between their company and their customers. During the […]
We received the following email from a large national service center chain: “I read with great interest your “tsunami” article on the different types of steel buyers, in the Sunday edition. Here’s another perspective I thought of after reading it: I hope that this year’s current market, which includes a high percentage of mill index […]
Flat Rolled Steel Service Centers Comment About Their Relationship Customers Late last week Steel Market Update started canvassing flat rolled steel distributors about their customer base in an effort to better understand the psyche of their customers. We found there are essentially three camps buying from the domestic steel service centers: 1) Contract customers tied […]
If we could sum up the month of April in one word it would be, wow! We saw flat rolled steel prices jump by $90 per ton from the last week of March until the last week of April. Our HRC average for the month of April jumped by $87 per ton, while the CME […]
On April 29, 2016, the Department of Commerce initiated an antidumping duty (AD) investigation of imports of certain carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length plate (CTL plate) from Austria, Belgium, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, South Africa, Taiwan, and Turkey, and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations of imports of CTL plate from Brazil, China, and […]
Cliffs Natural Resources first quarter earnings were stronger than expected by many analysts. The company posted net income of $117 million compared to a net loss of $762 million a year ago. Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs’ Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, said, “Cliffs’ first-quarter results clearly demonstrate how far we have come on our turnaround. […]
Last year in conjunction with Steel Success Strategies I had a lunch with a number of steel buyers, executives and two derivatives traders (one being Andre Marshall of Crunch Risk, LLC). We all gave our opinions as to where we thought benchmark hot rolled coil would be by early June 2016 when we will return […]
Steel buyers are beginning to brace themselves for what may well be another tumultuous month of allocations, closed order books and even higher steel prices. At this point it is a foregone conclusion with most buyers that there will be another increase. The question really is how much higher will prices go during the month […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC), busheling scrap (BUS), and financial futures markets was written by Dave Feldstein. As Flack Steel’s director of risk management, Dave Feldstein is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our […]
Updated April 28, 2016 – The United Steelworkers announced Wednesday that they have a tentative agreement contract agreement with ArcelorMittal USA. “After almost a year of difficult bargaining that continued eight months past the expiration of our previous contract, our committee’s hard work and dedication have resulted in a tentative agreement with ArcelorMittal,” said USW […]
The American Institute for International Steel reports monthly on steel import levels. We thought our readers might enjoy looking at the data from the AIIS point of view. Here is the press release for imports in March: Falls Church, VA. April 28, 2016. Steel imports increased 12.8 percent in March and have now expanded by […]
The Broad Index value of the US $ peaked on January 20th at 126.2, and on April 15th (latest figure available) was rated at 119.7, a decline of 5.2 percent. This is the lowest value since November 3rd 2015 (Figure 1). On March 15th the Fed held rates constant and cut its projection for the […]
US Steel maintains that Chinese manufacturers and distributors use false documents and transship products through other countries to disguise the country of origin. Numerous antidumping and countervailing duty orders have been placed on Chinese steel products over the years. US Steel maintains that China continues to circumvent these orders by using such methods in violation […]