I am hearing that the closing date for both AK Steel and Steel Dynamics (SDI) on the Severstal Dearborn and Columbus assets could come as soon as next Monday, September 15, 2014. We have two articles in tonight’s edition of SMU regarding imports, One from Peter Wright’s perspective and one that I worked on most […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter to the editor from a flat rolled steel service center. With contract negotiations heating up we thought the letter may spark a dialogue between the steel mills and their customers: John, we are a Mid-West Steel Service Center and attended your Steel Market Update Atlanta conference. We gained […]
Apparent steel supply for July was 10,588,648 net tons, the highest figure Steel Market Update has in its recorded history back to January 2010. Steel Market Update calculates apparent steel supply by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. July supply represents a 1,383,999 ton or 15.0 percent increase compared […]
Steel Market Update featured Timna Tanners, Metals & Mining Analyst, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and John Anton, Director of Steel Services, IHS Global, at a luncheon presentation at the recent Steel Summit. The topic was commodity and steel forecasts and consolidation of the industry. As usual the two disagreed on some topics and sparked some […]
Are foreign steel prices too low or are US steel prices too high? That is a question faced by trade litigation attorneys Robert Schagrin and Lewis Leibowitz at the recent SMU Steel Summit conference in Atlanta. There is a $300 delta between China and US prices and a $200 delta between Europe and the US […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released final census data for July steel imports this past week. Total imports were 3,858,692 net tons which was 247,387 tons greater than what we saw during the month of June. License data is pointing toward a slightly lower total volume for total steel imports during the month of August. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The August ISM Purchasing Manufacturing Index increased 1.9 points to a reading of 59.0, its highest reading since March 2011. Survey respondents report business is strong but expressed concern over geopolitical issues. New orders and production each increased 3.3 percent to 66.7 and 64.5, respectively. The new orders index was the highest seen since April […]
The following is a “hypothetical” calculation of the spread between world hot rolled export prices and domestic (USA & Canada) hot rolled prices. Actual HRC price spreads can vary based on freight costs, trader margins and other factors. SMU compares the world export price with adders for freight, handling, trader margin, etc., against the spot […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in the Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the […]
Falls Church, Va. August 26, 2014. Steel imports into the United States continued to grow in July, expanding by more than 6 percent from June and nearly 56 percent from a year earlier. July imports totaled 3.8 million net tons, 221,000 net tons more than in June. Imports from South Korea and Russia showed the […]
Since last week licenses for foreign steel to be imported into the United States during the month of August have retreated slightly and the latest data is now leaning toward import levels to be very close to the just released Preliminary Census number for July of 3.8 million net tons. At this moment, and I […]
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that Texas manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in August. The production index in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey registered at 6.8 in August, falling from 19.1 in July. The new orders index fell 11 points to 2.2. The shipment index registered a 16.4 point drop to 6.4, […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) had been hearing that we should expect sideways scrap prices as we move into September. However, over the last couple of working days the signals are now pointing toward a strong sideways to slightly higher tilt to ferrous scrap pricing. We have heard numbers could go up as high as $10 […]
The US International Trade Commission announced Friday that it will impose anti-dumping duties on imports from six of the nine countries accused by U.S. steel producers of dumping OCTG in the US market. The decision includes Korea, who was previously excluded in the preliminary decision, India, Taiwan, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam. The Philippines and Thailand […]
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment, which measures how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel feel about their company’s ability to be successful in the current market environment, continues at very optimistic levels. However, our Index has seen some erosion of enthusiasm as our Index has dropped 9 points since we recorded our record high of […]
With August steel imports looking like they may exceed May’s high of over 4 million tons and the recent influx of steel at the Port of Houston, Steel Market Update asked other U.S. ports to give their assessment of steel volume and port conditions. Port of Los Angeles “The Port of Los Angeles has seen […]
“Everyone wants business,” is how the conversation began with one of our Midwest service center sources. “Everyone has steel to sell,” is what he told us. However, he admitted that the bottom has not dropped out of this market. That feeling of concern was heard in a number of places. Flat rolled steel prices seem […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) analyzes foreign steel import license data on a weekly basis. From the data we can see where import tonnages are trending although we are not comfortable calling a specific number as the license data can be suspect until after the month is over. For the second week August license data is […]
Steel Market Update (SMU) has been looking at the growth of each flat rolled product during the first six months 2014 vs. the first six months 2013. What we found is how foreign steel has been usurping much of the apparent steel supply growth from the U.S. steel mills. Hot rolled shipments out of the […]
We are now two weeks away from the opening of our 4th Steel Summit Conference and our first two day conference. I am quite pleased at the response that we have received from a number of different fronts regarding our conference. Our conference is being held on September 3 & 4 which is only two […]
The Port of Houston warehouses are overflowing with steel. Steel Market Update spoke with a warehouse manager in the area who said “stevedore warehouses and various public warehouse facilities are brimming with materials, both inside and outside storage.” Some warehouses have had to turn away longstanding import customers for inside storage material such as steel […]
American Iron and Steel Insitute (AISI) President and CEO Thomas J. Gibson spoke about currency manipulation at a press conference at the City Club in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday. American steel producers are “under attack from surging imports benefitting from unfair trade practices—like currency manipulation,” said Gibson. Gibson was joined by former Missouri Governor Matt […]
Explanation of Data Sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily and monthly basis. It is a weighted average of the foreign exchange values of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a large group of major U.S. trading partners. The index weights, which change over time, are derived […]
The Metal Service Center Institute (MSCI) reported shipment and inventory data to paid subscribers on Friday. The steel industry media will receive the data on Monday. Steel Market Update will produce a number of reports based on the MSCI data. We will have our normal shipment and inventories for the U.S. and Canada for our […]
Pricing in the HRC futures market has continued slightly upward this week stemming from positive economic data and a bullish outlook within the steel industry. September prices have been trading around $655-667, October prices have been trading between $640-657, and Q4 has traded between $645-651, all about $5-10 improvements week on week. Further down the […]
Early indications, based on steel import license data, are suggesting August steel imports will once again exceed 3.5 million net tons and could go as high as 4.0 million tons. The high so far this year was May at 4.033 million net tons. May 2014 was also the highest import level seen since prior to […]
In the week of August 2nd the four week moving average (4WMA) of raw steel production as reported by the AISI exceeded 1,900,000 tons per week, for the first time since June 16th 2012, (Figure 1). However, capacity utilization at 79.2 percent (4WMA) is still nowhere near where it was before the recession. Capacity is […]
The following article was written by SMU contributing writer, Peter Brebach. Peter is the owner of Iron Angels of Colorado which is a company that deals with foreign steel and specifically with pipe and tube. SMU understands that the final vote by the ITC which was originally scheduled for today (14th) has been moved to […]
I got a note from a manufacturing company regarding the size of the Nucor move on galvanized coating extras. The comment that was made was, “Zinc average for 2014 is up 8.6% since average of 2012. Nucor increase is way too high.” This steel buyer went on to comment, “Aluminum average in same time period […]