The collapse of spot iron ore prices resulted in a surge in iron ore swaps, options and futures in September. Options hit the highest ever volume at 15.6 million tonnes followed by futures at 25 million tonnes according to TSI data. In total, over 62 million tonnes of futures and derivatives were cleared by exchanges […]
Steel buyers in the September ISM Steel Buyers Survey are expecting general economic activity to be flat over the next six months. Respondents were split at 45.5 percent on whether the the trend for sales and production would go up or remain static. Tons on hand would cover shipping levels for 0-1 month for 36.4 […]
Hot-rolled coil steel from Germany, China and France may soon be subjected to antidumping duties from Mexico. Mexico’s Ministry of economy has launched an investigation following a complaint by Ternium Mexico and Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) that imports of HRC from the three countries between 2011 and 2013 lowered prices and harmed Mexican producers. […]
Our Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” since the last day of June 2014. We are now entering our 4th month and hot rolled steel prices have barely budged from the center line (OK, there have been some mild gyrations but no clear cut path up or down during the past three months). […]
The hot rolled futures market has been active this week. After weeks of very little movement, selling has pushed futures prices into a more dramatic backwardation. Nearby months such as November and December have fallen $7 to $632. Further down the curve, HRC prices have fallen slightly more with all months in 2015 falling $8 […]
Steel Market Update spent the last two days canvassing end users and service centers to see where flat rolled steel prices are at the moment and where they might be heading from here. We heard from many service centers and end users that business conditions and demand for their products are doing quite well. We […]
As we try to point out on regular basis, import license data is an imperfect program and can only suggest what ballpark the final number will be in. Last week the import license data was suggesting September would meet or exceed 4.0 million net tons (all products). Based on license data updated on September 30th, […]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of Q2 2014 Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts last Friday. The annualized growth rate was revised up from 3.95 percent in the first estimate to 4.17 percent in the second estimate to 4.59 percent in this the third estimate. GDP is […]
On Wednesday, Steel Market Update (SMU) participated in a monthly steel conference call hosted by the Heating, Air-conditioning , Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI). HARDI wholesalers supply galvanized sheet and coils to the mechanical contractors involved in residential, multi-family and commercial construction segments of the construction industry. Consolidation was the first topic of discussion with AK Steel […]
Foreign steel imports accounted for 27 percent of the August 2014 monthly usage and a like percentage for annual steel usage according to data just released by the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Foreign imported steel tonnage was lower in August than the prior month but is way ahead of the tonnage received in […]
Through the 23rd of September foreign steel import licenses continue to suggest that September imports could exceed the 4.0 million net tons reported in the final census numbers for May 2014. The license data suggests that the biggest surge in imports will move through the domestic steel mills as semi-finished import licenses are trending toward […]
Zinc prices hit a three year high in September at $2390/t, escalating quickly from the mid $1900s in March. Although the prices have moderated in the last few weeks zinc, as of September 18, zinc was at $2247/metric ton on the LME index. The soaring prices are due to production shortfalls and higher demand. The […]
The Canadian International Trade Tribune (the Tribunal) determined last Friday that there is reasonable indication that dumping and subsidization of OCTG products from nine countries have caused or may cause injury to the domestic market. The countries named in the investigation are Chinese Taipei, the Republic of India, the Republic of Indonesia, the Republic of […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of August 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in August were 74,880,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.3 percent from the previous month but an increase of 8.5 percent […]
The following articles are for our Premium level customers. Thank you again for your business. We also want you to know that the latest imports by product, port and country are in the website (must be logged in as Premium customer in order to access the data) as is our latest Survey data which was […]
Nucor is expecting higher profitability for its sheet steel, structural, bar and plate operations for third quarter. In their quarterly guidance, Nucor noted that manufactured goods, including energy and automotive, are their strongest markets. The high level of imports continues to pressure prices downward. Growth in the residential market has benefited the fabricated construction products […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
The following report was prepared by Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunch Risk, LLC which is a company specializing in hot rolled, ferrous scrap and other “futures” contracts or financial derivatives. Today he discusses the broader financial markets, hot rolled steel futures (HRC), iron ore and ferrous scrap futures (BUS) trading on the CME. Andre Marshall […]
Apparent supply is defined as domestic mill shipments to domestic locations plus imports. Sources are the American Iron and Steel Institute and the Department of Commerce with analysis by SMU. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the total tonnage of sheet and strip supply in the period May through July was 4,942,917 tons, up […]
For months there have been rumors circulating in the marketplace that the domestic steel industry was contemplating filing dumping suits against the Chinese on cold rolled and potentially a number of Asian countries on galvanized and/or Galvalume products. To date there have not been suits filed and the foreign steel continues to arrive at ever-greater […]
The supply of sheet products had strong positive growth in the 3 months period May – July year over year (y/y) led by cold rolled which was up by 19.4 percent, (Table 1). In total on this basis sheet products were up by 14.8 percent. The sources of this analysis are the Commerce Department trade […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of July 2014, providing updated data on iron ore imports, steel scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in July were 82,520,000 metric tons, an increase of 10.7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 12.8 percent […]
I am hearing that the closing date for both AK Steel and Steel Dynamics (SDI) on the Severstal Dearborn and Columbus assets could come as soon as next Monday, September 15, 2014. We have two articles in tonight’s edition of SMU regarding imports, One from Peter Wright’s perspective and one that I worked on most […]
Steel Market Update received the following letter to the editor from a flat rolled steel service center. With contract negotiations heating up we thought the letter may spark a dialogue between the steel mills and their customers: John, we are a Mid-West Steel Service Center and attended your Steel Market Update Atlanta conference. We gained […]
Apparent steel supply for July was 10,588,648 net tons, the highest figure Steel Market Update has in its recorded history back to January 2010. Steel Market Update calculates apparent steel supply by adding domestic shipments and finished US imports and subtracting total US exports. July supply represents a 1,383,999 ton or 15.0 percent increase compared […]
Steel Market Update featured Timna Tanners, Metals & Mining Analyst, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, and John Anton, Director of Steel Services, IHS Global, at a luncheon presentation at the recent Steel Summit. The topic was commodity and steel forecasts and consolidation of the industry. As usual the two disagreed on some topics and sparked some […]
Are foreign steel prices too low or are US steel prices too high? That is a question faced by trade litigation attorneys Robert Schagrin and Lewis Leibowitz at the recent SMU Steel Summit conference in Atlanta. There is a $300 delta between China and US prices and a $200 delta between Europe and the US […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released final census data for July steel imports this past week. Total imports were 3,858,692 net tons which was 247,387 tons greater than what we saw during the month of June. License data is pointing toward a slightly lower total volume for total steel imports during the month of August. […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]