Earlier this week Steel Market Update went out to a group of steel buyers to gather pricing information and market intelligence regarding how they were reacting to the recent price announcements, and if they thought this round of increases would result in yet another dead cat bounce. (A dead cat bounce is one where prices […]
By CRU Principal Analyst Chris Asgill There has been a marked rise in Chinese imports of pig iron and HBI this year. This has been primarily due to limited domestic scrap supply that cannot be offset by external supply due to restrictions in scrap imports. Limited scrap supply relative to demand has meant that scrap prices in […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. This analysis breaks down the imported tonnage of six flat rolled products into the district of entry and the source nation. We believe that misinformation (or lack of) about local import […]
September apparent steel supply slipped to 8.7 million net tons, the lowest level seen since December 2017, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute and U.S. Department of Commerce. Apparent steel supply, a proxy for demand, is determined by adding domestic steel shipments and finished U.S. steel imports, then subtracting total U.S. […]
As flat rolled steel prices move higher, we need to remember that prior to the price increases there was an abnormally large spread between hot rolled based prices and those of cold rolled and coated. Instead of being $100-$140 per ton, they had been running as high as $180-$200 per ton. The spread was created […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: Happy Thanksgiving! That most American of holidays gives us a chance to appreciate the blessings we have as Americans. Our tradition almost forces us to eat turkey as part of that ritual—along with a lot of other neat […]
Despite the Oct. 28 plate price increase announcement out of Evraz ($40/ton), plate prices continue to be under pressure. [Please note: This article was completed just prior to the Nucor $40 price increase announcement, which was made on plate products at 4 p.m. this afternoon.] A large plate buyer told SMU they had just received […]
The last few weeks have been busy ones for the U.S. auto industry. A 40-day strike by the United Auto Workers at General Motors ended with ratification of a new four-year labor agreement, allowing negotiations to move forward at Ford. Ford negotiations wrapped up in just three days with a tentative agreement now ready to […]
October saw a small increase in finished steel imports, but a big increase in semifinished imports, based on Commerce Department license data for the full month. Finished steel imports saw a 14 percent decline from August to September in a comparison of the final Census Bureau data for the two months, followed by a small, […]
Two-thirds of the way through the month, steel imports into the United States are trending significantly lower in November compared with the prior month and averages for the year. Steel Market Update projections based on Commerce Department license data estimate imports will total about 2.1 million tons this month, well below the average for the […]
I have noticed many articles in the mainline press over the past few days slamming the Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs as not helping the steel industry. Most of the articles point to the recent loss announced by U.S. Steel as proof, along with minimal to no job gains in the industry. I don’t think […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The China tariffs, the steel and aluminum tariffs, the safeguard tariffs on solar panels and washing machines all have a feature in common: some form of product exclusion. This means that imported products covered by these measures may be […]
By CRU Senior Analysts Ryan McKinley (USA), Ryan Smith (Australia) and Erik Hedborg (UK) Part three of our three-part series: What’s next for U.S. iron ore production? In parts one and two of our series, we examined the U.S. iron ore industry and reviewed recent market developments. We also explored the dependency of U.S. iron […]
By CRU Senior Analyst Ryan McKinley The rate of decline for U.S. domestic longs product prices is decelerating as steel buyers slowly return to the market and scrap market sentiment firms. Although not low, inventory levels have worked through enough for buyers to re-enter the market and conduct seasonal restocking. Still, domestic prices and demand […]
Lower prices for line pipe and less drilling activity in the U.S. and Argentina contributed to declining tubular sales for OCTG producer Tenaris. Net tubular sales for the company totaled $1.8 billion in the third quarter, down 8 percent sequentially and year-over year, on shipments of 796,000 metric tons. Tubular shipments fell 6 percent from […]
U.S. steel imports likely totaled around 2.4 million tons in October, near the 12-month average, based on the latest import license data from the Department of Commerce. Imports of semifinished steel approached a million tons as the mills moved to secure slabs in the first month of the fourth quarter. Slab imports, notably from Brazil, […]
By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen We expect world GDP to grow by 2.5 percent this year and next; in other words, we expect global growth to be broadly stable at current rates. The story for world industrial production, instead, is one of a mild recovery from 1.4 percent in 2019 to 2.2 percent in […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
A memo from the Commerce Department Office of the Inspector General suggests that the Section 232 exclusion process may be favoring the companies that file objections to exclusion requests. The watchdog agency found evidence of unofficial communications that may be giving objectors undue influence in tariff decisions. The Bureau of Industry and Security is charged […]
Trade attorney and Steel Market Update contributor Lewis Leibowitz offers the following update on events in Washington: The presidential campaign heats up. The impeachment investigations continue. Polarization is in the air. Today, I note a trend that’s pertinent to all this—increasingly, pundits and commentators are discussing the futility of our current polarization. I recommend a […]
Steel imports are down significantly this year, the result of trade actions and economic forces, but the import market share is relatively unchanged. Through the first nine months of 2019, the U.S. imported at total of 22.6 million tons of steel, a 13.7 percent decline from the same period in 2018, reports the American Iron […]
The following article discussing the global ferrous derivatives markets was written by David Feldstein. As an independent steel market analyst, advisor and trader, we believe he provides insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Note that Steel Market Update does not take any positions on HRC or scrap trading, and any recommendations or comments […]
As expected, import licenses for semifinished steel have seen a big jump in October, the first month of the fourth quarter, as domestic mills seek to secure needed slabs ahead of quarterly quota restrictions on imports from Brazil and other nations. Steel Market Update’s forecast of import licenses for the entire month show semifinished imports […]
The U.S. dollar has strengthened against 12 of the 16 steel trading nation currencies in the last three months and against eight in the last month. In this report we examine the change in currency values of the 16 preeminent global steel and iron ore trading nations. The currencies of these 16 don’t necessarily follow […]
In the third quarter of 2019, the states reported a slowdown in net job creation that paralleled the national statistics. Third-quarter regional employment data by state was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday. The state data follows and confirms the employment situation that we reported at the national level two weeks […]
Nucor reported a decline in financial results as expected for the third quarter of 2019. Net earnings were $275 million, down from $386.4 million in Q2 and $676.7 million in Q3 2018. Consolidated net sales fell 7 percent from the previous quarter to $5.46 billion. Steel shipments to outside customers declined 7 percent from last […]
Economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most of the U.S. in September and early October. Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts in the South and West were generally more upbeat than the Midwest and Great Plains, according to the Fed’s latest Beige Book. Manufacturing activity edged lower as firms cited persistent […]
By CRU Analyst Sam Grant Looking at our North American zinc market forecasts for 2020, there are clear arguments for either a rollover or slight decline in contract premia as we head into negotiations during the final quarter of this year. In this article, we present an overview of the North American refined market fundamentals […]
By CRU Analyst Jordan Permain It is imperative for carbon steel producers to have secure supply of metallurgical coke to ensure stable and efficient operation of their blast furnaces (BF). Steelmakers also benefit from using coke with consistent technical specifications, namely CSR and ash content in their BFs. For these reasons alone it is prudent […]
By John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update The Steel Market Update Steel Buyers Sentiment Index has been a mirror of the comments made by buyers of flat rolled and plate steel over the past few days. Our Sentiment Index, which measures how buyers and sellers of steel feel about their company’s ability to […]