The slippage in spot pricing has slowed as flat rolled and plate prices continue to remain firm. We saw a tightening of the spread on hot rolled as both the upper and lower ends of the range moved closer. The other flat rolled products saw strength at the lower end of the range with adjustments […]
The percentage of manufacturing companies and service centers reporting distributor spot prices as weakening is nearing the SMU level of capitulation. Capitulation is the point at which steel distributors are panicking and dumping what is perceived as high-priced steel into the spot market at ever lower prices. The process feeds on itself and the distributors […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week: Steel The HR spot market has continued to decline, however we have a bit of a divergence as the HR futures curve prices […]
Lead times for most flat rolled steel products are about a week shorter than they were two months ago. Shorter lead times suggest that steel demand is easing. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the shorter the lead time, the less busy the mill. Lead times for hot […]
First, I must warn steel buyers that the USW may be losing patience with U.S. Steel and ArcelorMittal USA. We are monitoring the individual locals and we will report when we think something is going to break. The question right now is how long a leash is the union offering? As I said the other […]
Steel Market Update saw slippage in the lower end of the ranges on hot rolled, cold rolled and Galvalume steel prices this week. Galvanized remained the same, as did plate. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $810-$890 per ton ($40.50/cwt-$44.50/cwt) with an average of $850 per […]
Distributors of products for the HVAC sector are keeping a tight rein on inventories as pricing for galvanized steel continues to weaken. The wholesalers are seeing pressure from customers postponing orders in anticipation of better prices down the road. “It appears customers are living hand to mouth, waiting to place any large orders until they […]
The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid seven points in September from its 10-month high in August. The general business conditions index showed a slower pace of growth with a reading of 19.0 for the month, below economists’ expectations of 23. New orders and shipments continued to expand but at a softer rate, falling 0.6 points […]
Flat rolled spot base prices continued to drop over the past week. There are mixed emotions from steel buyers with some believing the weakness being seen is an “overreaction” to a “perceived” weakness in the steel mill order books. Comments were made to Steel Market Update during the data gathering process that weakness is mill […]
Written by John Packard, President & CEO, Steel Market Update When I was selling steel for a domestic mill (Winner Steel, now called NLMK Sharon), there was always cause for concern when steel buyers would contact me and reference a price from a trade publication that I knew to be “out of date” with the […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other […]
Future Sentiment, measured as both a single data point and as a three-month moving average (3MMA), is near its low point of the year as conflict on the trade front keeps buyers guessing. Future Sentiment registered +55 in Steel Market Update’s latest Steel Buyers Sentiment Index, down from +67 in mid-August. Current Sentiment registered +63, […]
Lead times on most flat rolled steel products continue to shorten, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data. Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time the busier the mill. Shortening lead times suggest steel demand is easing. Lead times for hot rolled […]
Once again flat rolled steel prices fell as steel buyers held back orders sensing blood in the water (lower prices). As one service center owner put it to Steel Market Update this afternoon, “The question is how weak can it get?” We were told the market had been acting like it had a “slow leak” […]
Global manufacturing was subdued in August said J.P. Morgan and IHS Markit. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI was at a 21 month low of 52.5 in August, down 0.3 points from July. “August PMI data signaled a slight firming in global manufacturing output growth to a solid pace at near three percent annualized,” said […]
Flat rolled steel prices declined over the past week. We saw prices drop by $15 per ton on all products except hot rolled, which was down $5 per ton. Plate prices remained the same with prices essentially rolling over for many customers from October to November. However, plate buyers are warning SMU of maintenance issues […]
Sixty-two percent of those responding to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends questionnaire believe steel prices on the spot market are on the decline. Another 35 percent expect prices to remain the same. Only 3 percent feel steel prices could still move higher. SMU has adjusted its Price Momentum Indicator to Lower, meaning prices are […]
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level—the longer the lead time the busier the mill. Lead times on hot rolled and cold rolled steel products have remained flat over the past couple of weeks, while coated products saw some shortening of delivery times, according to Steel Market Update’s […]
Metalforming companies are struggling with higher steel prices and longer lead times as a result of Section 232 tariffs, but are still expecting business conditions to improve during the next three months. The Precision Metalforming Association’s August Business Conditions Report showed 29 percent of participants expect an increase in economic activity, 62 percent expect no […]
Flat rolled steel prices moved lower over the past week. Benchmark hot rolled coil dropped to $885 per ton and momentum continues to point toward lower prices on all but plate products. Here is how we see prices this week: Hot Rolled Coil: SMU price range is $860-$910 per ton ($43.00/cwt-$45.50/cwt) with an average of […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other […]
A couple of months ago, Steel Market Update was speaking in front of a group from the financial community. We were asked, “What do you look for as a sign when prices are about to change direction?” Our answer was a mill price increase announcement. Earlier this week, ArcelorMittal USA announced a $30 per ton […]
We saw flat rolled steel prices as being lower this week compared to one week ago. As we reported last week, we are seeing lead times shortening and the mills more active and willing to discuss price during their negotiations. The ArcelorMittal USA price announcement on cold rolled and coated products is not a sign […]
Steel pricing is the product of a complex interplay between supply and demand, along with other factors such as ferrous scrap prices, imports and government trade actions. Steel Market Update canvasses steel executives twice each month with its market trends questionnaire to take the pulse of the industry. The current prevailing view shows supplies tightening, […]
Lead times for steel delivery are a measure of demand at the mill level. Lead times on most flat rolled steel products continue to shorten, according to Steel Market Update’s latest market trends data, suggesting that the mills are not as busy as they were earlier in the year and may be more open to […]
Negotiations between steel mills and buyers have loosened considerably as the mills appear significantly more willing to negotiate spot prices than at any other point this year. Every two weeks, in a proprietary poll, SMU tracks how buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel represent the mill negotiation position. According to respondents to this week’s […]
Most steel buyers are keeping inventory levels steady or even lower believing that, with steel prices so high, the risk is to the downside for the rest of this year. As one steel executive commented: “We are running inventories lean based on the elevated cost and our opinion that there is a greater chance for […]
As many of you are aware, I receive numerous questions on the steel, steelmaking and commodity markets on an almost daily basis. I endeavor to answer the questions that I am able as quickly as I can. Those questions asked that fall outside of my wheelhouse, I will try to locate someone who can help. […]
The following calculation is used by Steel Market Update to identify the theoretical spread between foreign hot rolled steel import prices (delivered to USA ports) and domestic hot rolled coil prices (FOB domestic mills). We want our readers to be aware that this is only a “theoretical” calculation as freight costs, trader margin and other […]