• Skip to main content

    Product

    January 16, 2013

    SMU Price Momentum Indicator Continues Record Run

    Written by John Packard

    For the past seven weeks, Steel Market Update (SMU) Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” waiting for something to push prices in one direction or another. When we made the adjustment the week of November 27, 2012 from Higher to Neutral our SMU range for hot rolled coil was $620-$660 per ton (average of $640 per ton) and HRC has traded sideways (+/- $20/ton) for most of the past seven weeks. Our 7 week run is the longest we have had for a reading of Neutral since we started our SMU Price Momentum Indicator in 2009.

    During the past two weeks, SMU began receiving data indicating the domestic mills were willing to break through the $600 per ton ($30.00/cwt) psychological barrier. A public break-through of the $600 level for medium sized service could take the numbers down to the mid-to-lower $500’s for larger service centers and would definitely move our SMU Price Momentum Indicator to Lower from Neutral.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Product

    Ternium plans February start for new slab mill, sees Mexico prices rising

    Ternium SA expects a modest seasonal decline in consolidated steel shipments in the fourth quarter, but sees Mexico revenue per ton continuing to rise with North American steel price trends. The outlook came as the company released its third-quarter earnings report and prepares to start steel shop production at its new Pesqueria slab mill in February. “We are seeing a strong demand in Mexico … strong demand in the US,” CEO Maximo Vedoya said on a conference call on Wednesday to discuss the quarterly earnings. Ternium reported Q3’26 net income of $368 million, compared with $465 million in Q2’26 and a $270-million loss in Q3’25.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.