Steel Products
Scrap Price Drop Helps Put HRC Prices Above SMU Fair Value Model
Written by John Packard
February 11, 2013
This week, the SMU Fair Value HRC (hot rolled coil) Model has spot HRC pricing above Fair Value for the first week after three consecutive weeks of being below the Fair Value price. This is due to the SMU average spot HRC index increasing $10 to $620 per ton and scrap inputs slightly decreasing $5 to $10 per ton. The Fair Value model now shows HRC prices $4 above the estimated Fair Value price.
As a reminder, the Fair Value HRC Model below came from the SMU acquisition of Steel Reality. The graph below demonstrates the relationship between scraps inputs creating an estimated “Fair Value” for HRC versus the actual spot price.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Steel Products
Final Thoughts
The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.
CRU: US rebar and wire rod prices rise alongside S232 increase
CRU Senior Steel Analyst Alexandra Anderson discusses current market and pricing dynamics for long steel products in the US.
CRU: Excessive global supply could hit rebar mill investments in US
Following the onset of the war in Ukraine in March 2022, concerns about import availability and expectations of rising demand from President Biden’s Infrastructure Bill pushed US rebar prices to record highs. In response, a flurry of new mills and capacity expansions were announced to meet the rise in demand from growth in the construction […]
Steel buyer spirits tempered by soft spot market conditions
Steel sheet buyers report feeling bogged down by the ongoing stresses of stagnant demand, news fatigue, tariff negotiations or implementation timelines, and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty.
CRU: US stainless prices to rise on expanded S232 tariffs
Stainless prices in the US market will rise, following price increases by major US producers. Our base case scenario incorporates higher US prices in the near term, despite the initial negative reaction by the market. US stainless prices will go up in 2025 H2 and will stay elevated in 2026 as tariffs on stainless […]