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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    To our Premium Level members – just a quick note to let you know that we publish Premium articles to the front of the website prior to sending them out in a supplemental newsletter. We have been waiting for imports by product, port and country to become available before we send out a supplemental issue. However, in the meantime, we have two articles (Currency Update & Shipments of Sheet & Strip) on the website and available to you once you are logged in (non-Premium members cannot see these articles).

    It’s been a struggle to get lead times out of the domestic mills. We are seeing some mills with their order books closed and waiting before opening the month of July order books. We learned that the plate mills are into mid-July delivery. The shortest lead times we saw on hot rolled were out of Nucor Berkely at the week ending May 3rd for less than 60″ and the following week for wider than 60″ HRC. Most mills checked were running cold rolled and coated from late May into mid-June promise dates. AK Steel had perhaps the longest lead times with hot rolled out to the week of May 25th and cold rolled basically into the first week of July (coated was inquire only). However, there are a number of mills whose order books are currently closed as they try to get a handle as to exactly where their order books truly are at this moment (or waiting for the dust to settle on pricing).

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    ArcelorMittal expects North American steel shipments to be flat sequentially in the fourth quarter, as recovery from Canadian and Mexican disruptions is expected to be offset by normal seasonality and maintenance. The company reported third-quarter shipments of 2.645 million metric tons, down 6.6% sequentially but up 1% year over year (y/y). It attributed the shipment decline primarily to lower long product volumes. North America sales were nearly $3.7 billion in Q3’26, nearly level with the previous quarter but 11% higher y/y. Average selling prices rose 5.7% sequentially to $1,228 per metric ton (mt).

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.