SMU Data and Models
Mill Lead Times Slip
Written by John Packard
June 5, 2014
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market survey just completed earlier today, mill lead times are slowly beginning to move in (get shorter) on almost all products followed by Steel Market Update.
Our respondents reported shorter lead times on hot rolled which were at 4.91 weeks on the 15th of May and are now being reported as averaging 4.52 weeks. However, the latest HRC lead times are still further extended than the 3.38 weeks reported at this time last year.
Cold rolled lead times are averaging 6.72 weeks down from 7.04 weeks in mid-May and one week less than the 7.84 weeks reported during the middle of April. Last year CRC lead times averaged 5.19 weeks.
Galvanized lead times moved from 7.14 weeks down to 6.86 weeks based on this week’s survey results. Last year galvanized coil lead times averaged 5.67 weeks or about one week less than where we are today.
Galvalume has been the least affected product with AZ lead times averaging 6.55 weeks down slightly from the 6.67 weeks reported during the middle of May. One year ago AZ average lead time was 6.10 weeks.
Shrinking lead times will many times point to a more robust negotiation process between the steel mills and their customers as prices begin to slip in order to fill holes in the steel mill order books. Here is what the recent history for steel mill lead times (based on SMU steel survey results):
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
SMU Survey: Overall mill negotiation rate at highest point on record
More than nine out of every 10 steel buyers polled by SMU this week reported that mills are flexible on prices for new orders. Negotiation rates have been strong since April and on the rise since early September.
SMU Survey: Mill lead times tick lower
Mill lead times have declined on both sheet and plate products this week, according to steel buyers responding to our latest market survey,
Steelmaking raw material prices trend higher in October
Steelmaking raw material prices strengthened for all but one product in October, a change in pace compared to recent months, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
Apparent steel supply eases in August
The volume of finished steel entering the US market declined in August from July, according to SMU’s analysis of data from the US Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI). Referred to as ‘apparent steel supply,’ we calculate this monthly rate by combining domestic steel mill shipments and finished US steel imports and deducting total US steel exports.
September service center shipments and inventories report
Flat rolled = 60.8 shipping days of supply Plate = 52.7 shipping days of supply Flat rolled Flat-rolled steel supply at US service centers declined in September, though still seasonally high. September’s report reflects lower demand, stable lead times, and restocking early in the third quarter at a perceived bottom in prices. At the end […]