SMU Data and Models

Mill Lead Times Slip
Written by John Packard
June 5, 2014
According to the results of our latest flat rolled steel market survey just completed earlier today, mill lead times are slowly beginning to move in (get shorter) on almost all products followed by Steel Market Update.
Our respondents reported shorter lead times on hot rolled which were at 4.91 weeks on the 15th of May and are now being reported as averaging 4.52 weeks. However, the latest HRC lead times are still further extended than the 3.38 weeks reported at this time last year.
Cold rolled lead times are averaging 6.72 weeks down from 7.04 weeks in mid-May and one week less than the 7.84 weeks reported during the middle of April. Last year CRC lead times averaged 5.19 weeks.
Galvanized lead times moved from 7.14 weeks down to 6.86 weeks based on this week’s survey results. Last year galvanized coil lead times averaged 5.67 weeks or about one week less than where we are today.
Galvalume has been the least affected product with AZ lead times averaging 6.55 weeks down slightly from the 6.67 weeks reported during the middle of May. One year ago AZ average lead time was 6.10 weeks.
Shrinking lead times will many times point to a more robust negotiation process between the steel mills and their customers as prices begin to slip in order to fill holes in the steel mill order books. Here is what the recent history for steel mill lead times (based on SMU steel survey results):

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU’s June at a glance
A look at SMU data for the month of June.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.