• Skip to main content

    Analysis

    June 23, 2014

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Hello from Chicago, home of our first Managing Price Risk II: Strategies & Execution workshop. We have an excellent group in attendance and the program is going well. Tomorrow (Wednesday) is day 2 when we provide an opportunity to our attendees to do simulated trading based on profiles and directives that they have to meet in order to meet their (pretend) company objectives. It should prove to be an interesting and educational day.

    One of the things we are learning, as I speak to buyers and sellers of steel on a daily basis, one of the things I am finding out is our Steel Summit program is exactly what people are looking for, covering the topics that seem to be on the minds of everyone and at a time that will be critical to 2015 contract negotiations and forecasts. We have added a program on steel index methodology with Josh Spoores speaking on behalf of CRU. We also have a program on a subject that has been plaguing the industry this year – logistics: truck, rail and ship (remember the ice…). We have a program on China and their move to a consumer driven economy, their impact on commodities and steel pricing and how those of us in North America need to be aware of their futures markets. Timna Tanners of Bank of America Merrill Lynch and John Anton of IHS Global Insight will return for their 4th attempt at forecasting steel prices and related commodities. I will let them debate which one has been more accurate during the past three tries. We will look at automotive, construction and energy forecasts and their potential impact on the economy in 2015. Dr. Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence will speak about the global economy and risks that North American companies need to be aware of. Plus we have John Ferriola of Nucor and Saikat Dey of Severstal (interesting timing) as keynote speakers along with Dr. Kuehl. Plus we have a pre-Summit program on “light-weighting” using advanced high strength steels led by Ron Krupitzer of the Steel Market Development Institute. More to come.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Analysis

    Steel exports fall in September to lowest rate of the year

    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

    Imports fall back slightly in September, slide further in October

    Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.

    Ferrous scrap market chatter this month

    Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.