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    Analysis

    Oil and Gas Prices and Rotary Rig Counts

    Written by Peter Wright


    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released data on global oil production for 2013. The global total was just over 90 million barrels per day (bpd). The Middle East and North America produced 27,170,000 and 19,285,999 bpd, respectively. The United States was the world’s top oil producer at 12,302,000 bpd followed by Saudi Arabia with 11,592,000 bpd.

    Mark Perry, in an article published by Seeking Alpha on August 14th, summarized as follows: “Bottom Line: The EIA data on international petroleum production through April provides more evidence that America’s shale energy revolution is taking the US from “resource scarcity” to a new era of resource abundance. The US now consistently produces more total oil supply than Saudi Arabia. This energy bonanza in the US would have been largely unthinkable even five years ago. But then thanks to revolutionary drilling techniques developed by American “petropreneurs,” vast oceans of shale oil have been accessed across the country, making the US the world’s No. 1 petroleum producer for 18 months running.”

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    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    Sheet prices surge as ’26 market squeeze spills into ’27

    Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

    Ferrous scrap prices seen rising in November

    Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.