• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    October 2, 2014

    SMU Price Momentum Indicator - Stuck in Neutral?

    Written by John Packard

    Our Price Momentum Indicator has been stuck in “Neutral” since the last day of June 2014. We are now entering our 4th month and hot rolled steel prices have barely budged from the center line (OK, there have been some mild gyrations but no clear cut path up or down during the past three months). As we mention in our “September at a Glance” article (coming up after this article), On July 1, 2014 the SMU hot rolled price average was $660 per ton. Fast forward to Tuesday of this week and our latest number is $655 per ton.

    Everyone is looking at the peak of the cycle during these past three months which was $675 per ton and now we are $20 per ton lower than the peak. So, now we are getting phone calls asking when we are going to change our Price Momentum Indicator from Neutral to Lower.

    John Packard

    Read more from John Packard

    Latest in Market Data

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Drilling activity ticks up in the US, eases in Canada

    The latest tally of active drilling rigs moved marginally higher in the US, up for the first time in five weeks. Activity eased in Canada this week, according to oil and gas rig count data published by Baker Hughes. The US rig count increased to 604 rigs this week, setting an 18-month high watermark. Compared with this time last year, 56 more rigs are in operation today. Canada’s count declined by three to 223 rigs this week, easing for the first time in three weeks. Activity is up from the same week of 2025, with 32 more rigs operating today.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

    ISM: Manufacturing sector expanded in October

    US manufacturing activity expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, according to supply executives in the Institute for Supply Management's latest report. The October ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered 55.5%, up one percentage point from the prior month. An index reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, while a reading below that indicates contraction. ISM noted that the overall economy continued to expand in October for the 24th consecutive month, emphasizing that a PMI reading above 47.5% over a period of time generally indicates that the overall economy is growing.

    US steel output reaches 18-year high as South leads gains: AISI

    Domestic raw steel production surged last week, reaching its highest output in almost two decades, according to the latest American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) figures. While the seesaw pattern continued for US production this past week, production swelled to its highest reading since Aug. 23, 2008, driven by a massive swing in the South. The increase reversed the recent downward trend, with a sharp rebound in the South accounting for nearly all the weekly gain. Production has fluctuated considerably over the past two months, reaching both an 18-year high and its lowest level since January.