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    Analysis

    Trader's View on Threat of Anti-Dumping Suit on Light Flat Rolled

    Written by John Packard


    Last month, Alfred (Al) Plummer, Sales Manager for Hanwa American Corporation, made a presentation about the steel industry at a regional meeting of the Association of Steel Distributors (ASD).  Over the past few days Mr. Plummer has been communicating with Steel Market Update and we thought that the items being discussed should be of interest to our readers with the goal being to open a two-sided conversation about foreign steel imports and the changes in pricing seen over the past 12 to 18 months. Mr. Plummer sent Steel Market Update a letter to the editor and we have included the vast majority of the content in the article below:
     
    “China is not the sole problem facing the Domestic Steel Industry.  In addition, when you consider that a large percentage of Chinese ships to the West Coast, there really is only a modest impact to the Midwest mills who are screaming the loudest.”


    On another power point slide which was used during the ASD presentation, Mr. Plummer pointed out that there were 75 individual countries which exported steel to the United States during calendar year 2014. The top six countries (includes China at #6) accounted for 25.539 million tons or 63.5 percent of the total. As a country, China exported 91.3 million metric tons of steel last year. The U.S. accounted for 3.3 percent of total Chinese exports. So far in 2015, China is the 7th largest steel supplier to the United States.

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    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.

    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.