SMU Data and Models

Steel Mill Lead Times: Still One Week Shorter than Year Ago Levels
Written by John Packard
October 8, 2015
Flat rolled steel mill lead times remain historically short as the domestic mills struggle to keep their mills full. Based on the results from this week’s flat rolled steel market analysis (survey) we are seeing lead times at least one week shorter than this time last year on all products with the exception of Galvalume.
Hot rolled lead times remained about the same as what has been reported over the last couple of months. The average lead time based on our respondents was 3.19 weeks compared to 3.04 weeks (statistically insignificant) two weeks ago and 3.11 weeks at the beginning of September.
Cold rolled lead times dropped by about a half a week from 5.65 weeks two weeks ago down to 4.95 weeks this week. One year ago CR lead times were 6.04 weeks.
Galvanized lead times dropped from 5.83 weeks two weeks ago to 5.32 weeks this week. One year ago GI lead times were averaging 6.05 weeks according to those responding to our survey.
Galvalume lead times dropped one half week compared to two weeks ago but are only a third of a week less than one year ago.
Here is what lead times have averaged over the past year based on the results of SMU flat rolled steel market survey.
To see an interactive history of our Steel Mill Lead Time data, visit our website here.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment rebounds from multi-year low
Both of SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged higher this week. Current Sentiment rebounded from a near five-year low, while Future Sentiment rose to a two-month high

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times pull back after early-June blip, plate holds
Following the uptick seen two weeks ago, lead times eased this week for all four sheet products tracked by SMU, while plate lead times held steady, according to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Pricing power abruptly shifts to steel buyers
The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey say domestic mills are more willing to talk price on sheet and plate products than they were earlier this month. Sheet negotiation rates rebounded across the board compared to early June, while our plate negotiation rate hit a full 100%.

Service centers: Mill orders down marginally in May
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) declined for a third straight month in May, but only marginally.