SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/a3b74fcfd8807001b794ee5da3b95d2d.jpg)
SMU Survey Respondents Weigh in on When this Price Cycle Breaks
Written by John Packard
May 10, 2016
Last week SMU asked those responding to our flat rolled steel market trends questionnaire about when they expected a break in the current flat rolled steel pricing cycle and for prices to begin heading lower. There was no consensus as 50 percent of those responding felt the change would occur prior to the 4th Quarter 2016 and the other 50 percent were in the camp that it would take until at least October or beyond.
The one month getting the most attention was October with 24 percent of the respondents. The graphic below depicts how active buyers and sellers of flat rolled steel see the life of this current “up” pricing cycle we are in:
Our Respondents Comments:
We received a number of comments associated with this question. Here are some examples:
“Excellent question. So many variables but if pushed to guess I would suggest q1 of 2017.” Service center
“When imports start to climb again and some additional capacity comes back into the market as it did in China in March and April.” Manufacturing company
“This type of rapid run up never last.” Service center
“You will know – when lead times drop, prices will follow.” Manufacturing company
“Flat August down September.” Manufacturing company
A trading company that told us October would be the timing for a change in pricing direction added this comment: “It may be sooner, if they continue raising.”
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/john-packard.png)
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Steelmaking raw material prices ease in July
The majority of steelmaking raw material prices declined in June, following the same trend seen in May, according to SMU’s latest analysis.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU price ranges: HR declines moderate. Are we near a bottom?
SMU’s sheet price ranges slid again this week. But the declines were more pronounced on tandem products whereas prices for hot-rolled coil held roughly steady.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
Some SMU Key Market Indicators improve, others remain near historic lows
SMU’s Key Market Indicators include data on the economy, raw materials, manufacturing, construction, and steel sheet and long products. They offer a snapshot of current sentiment and the near-term expected trajectory of the economy. All told, nine key indicators point lower, 16 are neutral, and 13 point higher. One thing worth noting: The nine indicators pointing lower are all lagging indicators. Many of those pointing upward are leading indicators.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/01/cropped-SMU_Mobile_final.png)
SMU survey: Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rebound
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices both saw improvement this week. Current sentiment ticked higher but remains near the four-year low seen earlier this month. Future Sentiment continues to indicate that buyers are optimistic for future business conditions.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/images/Featured_News_Icons/Premium1.png)
SMU market survey results now available
The latest SMU market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Historical survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if your […]