SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: More Flat Rolled Price Pressure to Come
Written by John Packard
May 22, 2016
Twice per month Steel Market Update (SMU) conducts our flat rolled steel market trends analysis. During the process we find out how buyers and sellers are feeling about their company’s ability to be successful in the current steel environment (SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index) and we probe many other areas of interest to those manufacturing, distributing or servicing the industry.
During last week’s analysis we asked our respondents as to what price level did they think benchmark hot rolled coil would reach on new orders placed for future delivery on September 1, 2016?
With our SMU HRC index now at $620 per ton, we found 62 percent of those responding believing prices would go higher from here. The largest grouping ranged from $640 to $700 per ton with 56 percent believing these levels will be reached by September 1st.
Comments made during the survey process:
“By then with Chinese and potentially global steel pricing being weak, the turn should already be started. Companies will find ways to import steel from new avenues.”
“I would expect the rapid rise start to slowdown over the coming months unless something happens to material availability being further restricted by the mills.”
“I would expect the rapid rise start to slowdown over the coming months unless something happens to material availability being further restricted by the mills.”
“I believe the Domestic Steel Mills are raising prices too much too soon. We all wanted higher prices but this is sticker shock. It is like they are making all of us pay for their 2015 losses from imports. Not Fair. Too Much, Too Soon.”

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Survey: Sentiment splits, buyers have better view of future than the present
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices moved in opposite directions this week. After rebounding from a near five-year low in late June, Current Sentiment slipped again. At the same time, Future Sentiment climbed to a four-month high. Both indices continue to show optimism among buyers about their company’s chances for success, but suggest there is less confidence in that optimism than earlier in the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “ferrous scrap survey” results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results […]

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the pricing and analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for “latest survey results.” Past survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results, or if […]

SMU Survey: Sheet lead times stabilize, plate contracts
Mill lead times for sheet products were steady to slightly longer this week compared to our late June market check, while plate lead times contracted, according to steel buyers responding to this week’s market survey.

SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate remains high
Domestic mills are more open to talk price on new orders than they were in June, according to most steel buyers responding to our market survey this week. Negotiation rates have recovered from the early-June lull and are now just a few percentage points shy of the high levels seen late last year.