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    Analysis

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard


    In this evening’s edition we have included a number of articles that would normally go to just our Premium level members. We thought that our Executive level members would like to get an idea of some of the articles and data they are missing. Included in that list is the Power Point presentation of our flat rolled steel market trends analysis (survey) which was released on Friday afternoon to our Premium level members. Tonight we have included articles on Shipments & Supply, GDP and Imports by Product, Port & Country. If you have any questions about Premium level membership please contact our office at 800-432-3475 or by email at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com

    A note to those of you who will be attending Fabtech or the ASD annual meeting in Las Vegas in November. John Eckstein (metallurgist and SMU instructor) and I will be presenting a 2-hour taste of our Steel 101 workshop on Friday morning, November 18th at the Las Vegas Convention Center. The workshop is free. If you have any questions about what we will be discussing, please send us an email at: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.

    Latest in Analysis

    Price: Blue wave may rock tariff boat, but some ships like Section 232 aren’t sinking

    The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

    SMU Survey: Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices rise

    SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

    US heating and cooling shipments fall for third straight month

    US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.