Futures
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/media/k2/items/src/1388f926012788145fa8f282640ed3c3.jpg)
Hot Rolled Futures Prices Declined This Week
Written by Jack Marshall
March 30, 2017
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) steel and financial futures markets was written by Jack Marshall of Crunch Risk LLC. Here is how Jack saw trading over the past week:
Steel
With HR spot hovering around $650/ST, HR futures prices declined in the latest week on modest trading volumes. Conflicting sharp price moves in the steel supply chain kept participants sidelined. Rising iron ore and pig iron prices in conjunction with plunging then recovering export scrap prices lead to some confusion.
The past week just over 15,000 ST traded with the bulk of the volume trading in Q2/Q4’17. The futures curve for 12 months forward declined on average about $15/ST with the volumes pretty evenly spread across the balance of 2017. Inquiries for the first 2 quarters of 2018 picked up this past week, however only Jan’18 and Feb’18 traded this past week at roughly $580/ST. The main deals this week were two Apr/Feb’18 strips which traded at an average price of just north of $600/ST which represents a pretty good discount to the current spot level. While market forecasts point to fairly steady HR demand for the remainder of the year market sentiment remains mixed. April prime scrap prices will remain the focus as the market looks for clear signals on where HR prices are headed.
Below is a graph showing the history of the hot rolled futures forward curve. You will need to view the graph on our website to use its interactive features, you can do so by clicking here. If you need assistance with either logging in or navigating the website, please contact our office at 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
Scrap
It has been a bit of a roller coaster ride in the CFR Turkish scrap market with prices dropping precipitously only to partially retrace nicely from sub $260 levels just a few days ago to $270 plus going into the end of the week. Rebounding iron ore and rising pig iron prices due to the Ukraine conflict are adding volatility to an already cautious futures marketplace due to soft markets for Turkish finished steel. With higher pig iron prices and steady prime scrap demand early chatter has U.S. Midwest BUS sideways for April. ($365). The BUS futures curve remains well backwardated with 2H’17 offered at $325/GT and Cal’18 offered at $315/GT.
Below is another graph showing the history of the busheling scrap futures forward curve. You will need to view the graph on our website to use its interactive features, you can do so by clicking here. If you need assistance with either logging in or navigating the website, please contact our office at 800-432-3475 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
![Jakc Marshall, SMU Contrubutor](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/jack-marshall-150x150.jpeg)
Jack Marshall
Read more from Jack MarshallLatest in Futures
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: Shifting risk profiles, emerging opportunities
Summer is here, and a familiar sentiment has hit the hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market. Prices continue to decline in both the spot market and the futures market, with expectations of sub-$800 prices for the remainder of the year.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures complex slips from June
The CME steel futures complex saw a slight decrease in activity from levels seen at the end of June. This has coincided with a notable decline in flat prices for the nearby futures contract, now August HRC, which is lower by $81 per short ton (st) since last writing on June 13. It settled at $672/st on July 17.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: Bottom to prices?
A month ago, when we last presented this column, there was a surprising amount of optimism in the presumably imminent reversal of the downtrend in hot-rolled steel prices in the second half of this year.
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: ‘Gimme Shelter’
This chart of the rolling second-month CME hot-rolled coil (HRC) future dating back to the start of 2022 has been as volatile as a herd of “Wild Horses.”
![](https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/09/HRC-Futures.png)
HR futures: Market changes gears
For the first time in weeks, activity in the futures market broke out of the recent “front grinds lower” pattern to provide new insight into the dynamics of the steel industry.