SMU Data and Models

Will the New NAFTA Be Good for Your Business?
Written by Tim Triplett
October 8, 2017
Steel buyers and sellers appear evenly split on whether the renegotiation of NAFTA will benefit their companies. Responses to Steel Market Update’s market trends questionnaire, emailed to several hundred steel executives earlier this week, suggests that most companies don’t really know if the new NAFTA being pursued by the Trump administration will be good for their businesses.
More of their comments were negative than positive, however:
· “Some of my final customers supply to Mexican manufacturing, which comes back to the U.S. They are very concerned about NAFTA as they feel any change will be negative for their business.” Trading Company
· “If it means higher steel prices, that will be bad for our business because we are competing against similar products made of other materials.” Manufacturer/OEM
· “Unintended consequences will occur if NAFTA is changed.” Manufacturer/OEM
On a more positive note, one service center executive said, “Ross Perot nailed it! And in a decade Mexico built a middle class. Unfortunately, it was a big chunk of ours.” Said another service center, “It should hopefully lead to more manufacturing in the U.S.” Agreed a manufacturer, “but only if Canadian steel products are taxed coming into the U.S.”
Several expressed doubts about the ability of the Trump administration and its trade negotiators:
· “I see it as a non-event, given the current government’s ineffectiveness in moving any initiatives.” Service Center/Wholesaler
· “NAFTA seems to neither hurt nor help us, and I lack confidence in the current administration.” Manufacturer/OEM
· “Nothing the U.S. government has done is good for our business. We all drank the Kool-Aid and we all look stupid.” Service Center/Wholesaler

Tim Triplett
Read more from Tim TriplettLatest in SMU Data and Models

SMU Scrap Survey: Current and Future Sentiment tick down
SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap decreased this month, a move mirrored by our Future Sentiment Index, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey.

SMU Survey: Buyers’ Sentiment slips again, future outlook improves
Each of our Sentiment Indices continues to reflect that steel buyers are positive about their present and future business prospects, though that confidence has eased considerably compared to the beginning of the year.

SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available
SMU’s latest steel buyers market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.

SMU Survey: Sheet and plate lead times stabilize
Sheet and plate lead times saw minor shifts this week, according to SMU’s latest market survey. Sheet times have inched up over the last month but remain within days of multi-year lows, as they have since May. Plate lead times have bobbed within a tight range for months, hovering roughly a week longer than this time last year.