• Skip to main content

    Market Data

    January 3, 2018

    Key Market Indicators Positive for First Quarter

    Written by Peter Wright

    Key market indicators bode well for business conditions in the first quarter of 2018. Steel Market Update’s view of the present situation based on our examination of data released in December shows that 47.2 percent of the 36 indicators are historically positive with only 19 percent negative. The balance is within the historically normal band. The total of positive and normal has not changed in six months. However, there have been frequent changes in the detail. Trends improved with 80.6 percent of the indicators heading in a positive direction, up from 61.1 percent in October and from 72.2 percent in November. Trends lead the present situation by about four months.

    See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators concept. It explains the difference between our view of the present situation, which is subjective, and our analysis of trends, which is based on the latest facts available. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is 36.

    Peter Wright

    Read more from Peter Wright

    Latest in Market Data

    Final Thoughts: Do Mesabi Metallics and Hyundai-POSCO signal more foreign steel investment in US?

    Could two new steel projects signal a new direction in the marketplace? Both Mesabi Metallics’ recently announced steel facility in Iowa and the Hyundai-POSCO’s proposed mill in Louisiana are major undertakings. You don’t spitball a major steel mill and then start producing the next day. From initial concept to site selection and on up to the first melt, there is a labyrinth of permitting, planning, and construction to navigate before the first heat.

    Lead times extend deeper into 2027, some see no availability until late Feb

    Lead times for sheet and plate products continue to extend in a US steel market still in the grip of a historic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into late January 2027, with some mills not quoting availability until mid/late February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021. And plate lead times have exceeded their 2021 peak, repeatedly setting new record highs in our data series over the past month. (We started collecting plate lead time data in 2018. Our sheet lead time figures go back to 2012.)

    SMU flat-rolled market survey results now available

    The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    SMU Survey: Steel mill negotiations remain rare as buyers face tight supply

    Only 5% of steel buyers surveyed by SMU this week said mills were willing to negotiate lower prices for new spot orders, suggesting mills retain substantial pricing leverage in a tight market. The share rose two percentage points from our previous survey two weeks ago but was nine points below the mid-October reading. This week's rate is just slightly higher than our previous survey when the negotiation rate fell to 3% — its lowest level since July 2021. Negotiation rates have trended downward all year as steel prices have continued to climb.