Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


I am in Chicago this evening attending the Metals Industry Boy Scout Dinner. Joining me is Tim Triplett, so please excuse tonight’s issue if it seems a little shorter than normal.

The Vietnam circumvention final ruling has been delayed another week.

I was speaking to a prospective new customer yesterday and realized as I talked to him about the differences between Steel Market Update and our competitors that I have not provided my background in quite a while. Where I came from and my experiences in the steel industry are one of the key factors when evaluating our product versus anything else that you are using to gather market information.

I spent 31 years actively buying and selling flat rolled steel. My main area of expertise is in coated products, particularly galvanized and Galvalume. However, over the course of my career I also sold hot rolled and cold rolled products.

What makes my background even more unique is I have worked in the service center, steel mill and trading company segments of the industry.

This newsletter began while I was representing a galvanized steel mill in the United States called Winner Steel (now known as NLMK Sharon Coatings). During my 10-year tenure with the mill, the flat rolled steel markets went through a number of wild price and supply cycles and it became apparent to me that the only way my clients were going to be able to prosper was if they had real-time information. So, I began putting together a daily report about the markets and the forces influencing the steel industry.

After Winner Steel was sold to the Duferco JV (Duferco/NLMK) and I lost my representation for the mill, I continued to write and expanded my focus to the greater flat rolled industry. In August 2008, I started SMU as an official business and it has been full-steam ahead ever since.

I tell this story because Steel Market Update is about to go through a growth spurt. We are preparing to expand our coverage and improve our products. To do this successfully, it is important that we understand what we are doing well and what we could be doing better. This is the reason why we have asked you to take a few moments to respond to some questions about our company. Please take some time to click on the following link, which will take you to SurveyMonkey and our questionnaire: https://www.surveymonkey.de/r/TRWPMZB

SMU STEEL SUMMIT CONFERENCE ATTENDEES PLEASE NOTE: If you get a call from anyone trying to book hotel rooms for our conference, it is a SCAM. Do not accept calls from anyone saying they represent our conference. All rooms are booked directly through the Marriott hotels by calling 800-236-2427 or by using the links on our website. SMU never uses any outside organization to sell hotel rooms or anything else. Also, we have 78 rooms left in our room block at the Gateway hotels next to the convention center. Once those run down to around 20 rooms we will add another Marriott property, which is located about a mile away. We will have a minimum of 100 rooms there and there will be a shuttle to the convention center. More details on that hotel shortly.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final thoughts

What's the tea in the steel industry this week? Here's the latest SMU gossip column! Just kidding... kind of. Yes, some of the comments we receive in our weekly flat-rolled market steel buyers' survey are honestly too much to put into print. Some make us laugh. Some make us cringe. Some are cryptic. Most are serious. We appreciate them all. Below are some highlights from our survey results this week. Some of the comments that we can share with you are also included, in italics, in the buyers' own words, with minimal editing on our part.

Final thoughts

Unless you've been under a rock, you know by know that Nucor's published HR price for this week is $760 per short ton, down $65/st from the company’s $825/st a week ago. I could use more colorful words. But I think it’s safe to say that most of the market was not expecting this. For starters, US sheet mills never announce price decreases. (OK, not never. It has come to my attention that Severstal North America rescinded a price increase back on Feb. 14, 2012. And it caused quite the ruckus.)

Final thoughts

Is it just me, or does it seem like the summer doldrums might have arrived a little early? I could be wrong there. It’s possible we could see a jump in prices should buyers need to step back into the market to restock. I’ll be curious to see what service center inventories are when we update those figures on May 15. In the meantime, just about everyone we survey thinks HR prices have peaked or soon will. (See slide 17 in the April 26 survey.) Lead times have flattened out. And some of you tell me that you’re starting to see signs of them pulling back. (We’ll know more when we update our lead time data on Thursday.)