Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

Written by John Packard


I am in Miami (South Beach) for a Bank of America Merrill Lynch conference. A little different than I am used to, but I guess the insights that Lewis Leibowitz and I bring on the market may help investors. I will be back in my office sometime late on Wednesday afternoon.

The questions that Lewis and I were getting this afternoon at a reception were about getting a “final” answer to the Section 232 tariffs/exclusions, et al. With the June 1 deadline approaching, I think the investors are hoping the chaos and uncertainty will go away. I don’t think Lewis or I are of that opinion. There will be more chaos to come.

We will have a full report on import licenses on Thursday. I will give you a heads up. The first two weeks’ rate has been much less than what we saw last month. Details coming soon.

I want to welcome our newest members to Steel Market Update. I want to invite you to interact with me, which you can do by sending emails to John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Your comments and suggestions about Steel Market Update are greatly appreciated.

As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.

John Packard, Publisher

Latest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts

As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanner put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.