Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
June 8, 2018
I am finally home long enough to gather my thoughts and hopefully get back to providing some insights into the flat rolled, plate and scrap markets from my perspective.
There is obviously a lot of uncertainty connected to the Section 232 tariffs in both steel and aluminum. The Trump administration appears to have an intense focus on changing the way other countries trade with the United States. I have mixed emotions about the “break the glass” strategy that seems to have been working for most of the world for the past 70 years. However, I do not disagree that there are barriers to trade with some countries that block American exports to protect their own industries. The U.S. does the same on a selected few products like tobacco and peanuts.
We have an article in tonight’s issue written by Dr. Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics. Dr. Beaulieu is one of the best economists I have heard during my steel career. He is one of our keynote speakers at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference and I highly recommend that you come and sit in on his talk (Wednesday, Aug. 29, at 8:15 AM).
I would love to hear from companies, especially U.S., Canadian and Mexican manufacturing companies that are being affected by the Section 232 tariffs. I would like to find out if decisions related to bringing manufacturing back to the United States are being affected by the Trump administration? At the same time, is your company looking at the landscape and making decisions to move more manufacturing outside of the United States? You can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com or by phone at 800-432-3475.
I received hundreds of emails, texts, Facebook and LinkedIn posts, as well as phone calls, regarding the sale of Steel Market Update to the CRU Group. I did not receive one negative comment. There were a few hoping that nothing will change. Let me address that for a moment. I have signed a three-year contract with the CRU Group. They have expressed their desire to have me stay longer than the three years. They want Steel Market Update to prosper and grow. We (myself and CRU) want SMU to continue to be a voice for those in the steel industry for many decades after I am gone.
To do that, we must change the way we do some things, better develop products we already have in the system and create new products and data sets based on what is needed in the manufacturing, distribution, steel mill, trading and financial communities.
So, we may be phasing out some products and creating new ones. If you find that something you loved is missing, let me know: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com. If there is something missing from our newsletter or website that you think should be covered, please let me know.
My intention is to end this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference with a joint presentation by the CRU Group and Steel Market Update. We want to answer whatever questions you might have and we want to bring new products out of SMU to satisfy our members.
We had a great Steel 101 workshop last week in Memphis, with tours of the Nucor Hickman and Nucor-Yamato steel mills. Here is what John Quinn of Curtis Steel had to say about the workshop, “Overall, the workshop was very informative. The individuals from SMU know what they are talking about and can answer any questions you may have regardless of your level of experience. I would recommend this workshop not for just new hires into the steel market but as a refresher course for those that have been involved for years. I have returned to my office with a better understanding of how steel is made and what it takes to obtain the product’s we utilize.”
I will be working on the content for our next workshop with AK Steel over the course of this week. The next steel training workshop will have a special focus on “new” steels such as advanced high-strength steels for automotive applications. The workshop will be conducted for the first time inside the new research facility at AK Steel. We will also tour the fully integrated steel mill AK Steel has at Middletown, Ohio. More details about this workshop will be coming soon.
By the way, we have been unsuccessful (so far) in obtaining a panelist/speaker who can talk about the issues the railroads are having. I would also like to strengthen the trucking portion of our program (we have Rebecca Brewster, President and COO for the American Transportation Research Institute). If you have a speaker on either rail or trucking that you think would add value to our program, please contact me at 800-432-3475 or John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, President & CEO

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
An exciting first look at the results from SMU's first scrap survey.

Final Thoughts
As Wolfe Research’s Timna Tanner put it in her opening talk at Tampa on Monday afternoon, we’re living in a world of “Trumplications” now. That probably means – at least in the short term – higher scrap costs, lower imports from countries hit with or threated tariffs, and higher steel prices. SMU data reflects that. Scrap went up in January. More than 75% of the respondents to our more recent survey expect scrap to go up again February, maybe by a lot. Lead times, meanwhile, have been ticking upward this month. It started with hot-rolled coil and plate earlier this month. Now we’re seeing coated lead times extending too.

Final Thoughts
We joked in our last Final Thoughts that Wiley trade attorney Tim Brightbill – one of the nation’s leading experts on trade law and policy – would probably be revising his presentation on Trump, trade policy, and tariffs for the Tampa Steel Conference. He did. And even after those last-minute revisions, he actually got trumped […]

Final Thoughts
The whole SMU team is packing up our laptops and our SMU polos/cardigans, loading up the PowerPoint slides, and preparing to make the trek down to Florida for the Tampa Steel Conference. There will be plenty to talk about!

Final Thoughts
From one group of folks, I’ve heard that Trump might not wait until Feb. 1 – the date he threatened on to place tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. They say he could act as soon as Friday. And then there are those who don’t think anything will happen before April 1. That’s the deadline for Commerce, Treasury, and USTR to submit key reports on “America First Trade Policy” to President Trump.