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    Analysis

    June 10, 2019

    Final Thoughts

    Written by John Packard

    Imported steel prices are no longer competitive with domestic steel mill pricing – even on light gauge galvanized and other specialty products that normally have gone to trading companies. Lead times are short, but as one steel executive put it to me this afternoon, “It’s not that the mills have no business. [For this time of year] normal lead times at reasonable booking rates.” There is a rumor of a very large line pipe order in the works (not booked yet). The capacity utilization rates are above 80 percent (although at the lowest levels of the year this past week). On our HARDI steel conference call today, all of the wholesalers reported strong demand for galvanized by their mechanical contractors. These are all good things and should be supportive of steel pricing. That has not been the case.

    John Packard Summit 18Scrap prices surprised everyone with a strong $30 per gross ton drop for the month of June. The non-construction markets are reporting reductions in demand. As we moved around the industry today, we heard demand referenced as being stable to down as much as 7 percent year-over-year.

    John Packard

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    SMU scrap market survey results now available

    SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

    Scrap export market activity perks up

    There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

    Market chatter: Supply, not price, dominates steel buyers’ concerns

    On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.